Download Hydrological drought sensitivity to land use changes in a

Hydrological drought sensitivity to land use changes in a Northwestern Mexico River Basin
Francisco
1
Munoz-Arriola
Chunmei
1
Zhu ,
Andrea
2
Ray
2
Lettenmaier
and Dennis P.
1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
2. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CA 80303-3328
Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico
and the Southwestern U. S. , Ensenada, Baja California, México April 10–11, 2008
Evaluation of Simulated Streamflow
NAMS
Aros-Papigochi River
Pacific Ocean
Yaqui River
1600000
1400000
800000
600000
0.1
ec
D
1-
ov
N
1-
O
ct
1-
Se
p
1-
Au
g
1-
Ju
l
1-
un
ay
1J
0.2
1M
an
0.3
r
0
Ap
0.4
1-
200000
1M
0.5
ar
400000
b
0.6
1000000
1J
Fraction Coverage
0.7
1200000
1Fe
streamflow (10 mm)
6
0.8
Warm PDO: (1947-1976)
Cold PDO: (1977-1995)
Pre-Monsoon: (January,
February, March, April,
May)
Monsoon: (June, July,
August, and September)
Post-Monsoon: (Octuber,
November, and December)
time (days)
0
Angostura_I
Paso Nacori
Oviachi
Sub-basins
EvNedleaf
DsBroadleaf
Wooded Grassland
Grass
EvBroadleaf
Mixed Forest
Closed Shrubland
Crop
DsNedleaf
Woods
Open Shrubland
Bare
Frequency
0
1
OVCHI_LN_cold
OVCHI_LN_warm
OVCHI_EN_cold
OVCHI_EN_warm
OVCHI_N_cold
OVCHI_N_warm
Small- mid- (El Niño [EN], La Niña [LN], and neutral [N] years), and large-scale clime conditions (warm and cold
PDO)were identified using the squared wavelet coherency (Grinsted et al. 2004) and information in literature, observed in
the climatological composites of simulated streamflow (Larkin et al 2004 and Mantua et al 1997). Monsoon months were
assumed June, July, August, and September, the rest of the months are non-monsoon months.
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 34 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79
Drought duration (days)
ANGTR
•Soil moisture increment
after the monsoon onset
favors
evapotranspiration
PSNCO
OVCHI
•Streamflow deficit produced by the monsoon droughts is higher than those in the premonsoon and post monsoon months.
•Post-monsoon droughts are consistently smaller in number of days and events
•The strongest drought events and occurred at Angostura during the pre-monsoon months
•The largest drought event occurred in Angostura during 1999 (79 days)
100
Paso Nacori
pre-monsoon
current
3%
EN
608
602
LN
148
139
N
1066
1081
COLD
1277
1277
WARM
545
545
97
19
93
19
89
19
85
19
81
19
77
19
73
19
69
19
65
61
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Angostura
19
0
57
0
49
0
97
10
93
10
89
10
85
20
81
20
77
20
73
30
69
30
65
30
61
40
57
40
53
40
49
50
97
50
93
50
89
60
85
60
81
60
77
70
73
70
69
70
65
80
61
80
57
80
Angostura Case
• Pre Monsoon
•Drought days were reduced during EN
and LN years
•During N years draught days increases
•Changes in the number of draught days
occurred during the warm phase of PDO
•Monsoon
•During all climate conditions the number
of drought days increases
•Increases in the number of drought days
were higher during N, followed by LN,
and EN with the smallest changes
•During the Warm PDO occurred 92% of
the changes
•Non-Monsoon
•All years experimentd a reduction in the
number of drought days
•Warm PDO experimented a reduction in
the number of days of drought while
during cold PDO occurred the opposite
Post-Monsoon
90
19
Monsoon
90
19
Pre-Monsoon
53
100
49
Gulf of Mexico
Yaqui Valley
50
•Deficit in soil moisture
and the consequent
inhibition of
evapotranspiration
previous to the monsoon
and the first stage of
monsoon (June-July)
19
Sonoran Desert
Calibration: MunozArriola et al. (to be
SOI
submitted)
1
Climate conditions: (see
2
1 below)
4
• El Niño Souther
16
0.5Oscillation Index (SOI)
• Pacific Decadal
PDO
Cross Wavelet Transform Squared Wavelet Coherence Oscillation (PDO)
1
0 Identification and
2
Evaluation
4
Squared •Wavelet Analysis
Wavelet •Composites (from Larkin
16
Coherence et al 2002 and Mantua et
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
al. 1997)
150
100
Oviachi
Period
Angostura
Oviachi
• Changes in streamflow are
associate to:
Observed
Bavispe River
Moctezuma River
•Paso Nacori and
Oviachi streamflow
increases
90
Study Domain
Three sub basins of the Yaqui River basin were evaluated, Angostura and
Paso Nacori, considered natural streamflows and Oviachi a streamflow
diverted for water storage (hydropower generation and irrigation).
200
100
Simulated (naturalized
•Under current conditions short draught
events (5 days) dominate in all subbasins
•Paso Nacori experiment the highest
number of draught events
•The largest drought event occurred in
Angostura during 1999 (79 days)
250
19
Paso Nacori
300
• Streamflow decrease
in Angostura
Oviachi
STATEMENT OF PURPOSE: To assess the streamflow drought sensitivity
to land use changes under different climatic regimes in the Yaqui river basin
Paso Nacori
•An increment of 3% in the
crop surface produces
53
Angostura
Drought Analysis
Number of drought days
Land-use changes can strongly affect streamflow generation. In most cases,
deforestation and agricultural intensification increase streamflow while
afforestation reduces it. In semi-arid basins, such as the Yaqui River basin
(YRB) in Northwestern Mexico, changes in streamflow generation may impact
the sustainability of the region's agricultural practices. Water resources in the
YRB are influenced by different climate-phenomena, such as the North
American Monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and by anthropogenic activities. Here we evaluate
the sensitivity of drought events in the YRB to land use changes under
different climatological conditions. Periods were identified where the ENSO
and the PDO influence the temporal variability of streamflow from 1949 to
1999, using wavelet analysis. The drought events, which were influenced by
these oscillations, were identified using runoff-percentile anomalies.
Increments of the agricultural and afforestation practices were implemented as
boundary conditions, and used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model
(VIC) to simulate the hydrological surface components of the YRB. Droughts
during the non-monsoon months of La Niña and the warm phase of the PDO
years were sensitive to increase in crop land-use in the northernmost part of
the YRB. The rest of the basin observed an increase in runoff, which reduced
the drought occurrence. Drought sensitivity to afforestation was higher during
the monsoon months. In neutral years followed by El Niño and in years during
the cold phase of the PDO, drought sensitivity to afforestation was the highest
during the monsoon months.
Stream Flow (106 cfs)
ABSTRACT
19
VIC Features:
 Macro-scale and semi-distributed model
 Subgrid representation of the spatial variability in:
 Land surface vegetation classes
 Soil moisture storage capacity as a spatial
probability function (Xinanjiang Model)
 Drainage from the lower soil moisture zone (baseflow)
as a non linear recession (ARNO model)
 Evapotranspiration based on the Penman-Moneith
equation (Mid- and bottom soil layers)
 The routed runoff transport is linear and time invariant
Spatial Resolution:
1/8 o (Zhu and Lettenmaier, 2006)
Temporal Resolution:
3-hourly
1949 to 1999
Temporal Resolution
Drought analysis uses the percentile method with the lower
20% threshold (Andreadis et al 2006)
Oviachi
monsoon
current
345
240
794
768
611
3%
367
291
830
776
712
post-monsoon
current
114
45
332
309
182
3%
112
34
300
314
132
CONCLUDING REMARKS
• Intensification in agriculture is reflected in changes in the number of drought days. Munoz-Arriola (2007) observed a reduction in the
streamflow produced by increments in the crop surface at Angostura (opposite to what occurred at Oviachi and Paso Nacori). This is reflected in
the increment of drought days during the monsoon months. During non-monsoon months the streamflow generation is influenced by events such
as snow melting (may be important in Angostura during the spring months) and low evapotranspiration producing a reduction in the drought
events and its duration. This shows the importance of land surface processes such ass soil moisture dynamics and consequently the inhibition of
evapotranspiration due to availability of water in the first soil layers.
Andreadis, K.M. and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 33, L10403, doi:10.1029/2006GL025711
Larkin, N. K., and D. E. Harrison (2002), ENSO warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries, and implications, J. Clim., 15, 1118-1140.
MunozArriola, F., D. Lettenmaier, C. Zhu..and R. Avissar. Hydrological Response to Land Use Change in the Yaqui River Basin (submitted, Water Resources Research)
Munoz-Arriola, F. (2007). Hydrological Response to Precipitation Discrepancy and Land Use Changes in the Yaqui River Basin. Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Duke University. Ph. D. degree
inCivil and Environmental Engineering.
Zhu C.M. and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2007: Long-term climate and derived surface hydrology and energy flux data for Mexico,1925-2004, Journal of Climate, 20, 1936-1946.