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Identifying Opportunities Entrepreneurial Process Identify and Evaluate the Opportunity Develop the Business Plan Determine Resources Required Manage the Resulting Enterprise Created Identify & Evaluate Opportunity Fruitful Sources: consumers, distributors, technical people, business associates Evaluation of opportunity most critical element Window of opportunity (size & duration) are primary basis for determining risks/rewards Opportunity must fit personal skills and goals of entrepreneur Opportunity Assessment Plan Opportunity Assessment Plan What market need does it fill? Personal observations reflect market need? What social condition underlies market need? Market research to support need? Are patents required? What competition exists in marketplace? International competition? Where is the money to be made in this activity? Develop a Business Plan Executive Summary Description of Business Description of Industry Marketing Plan Financial Plan Production Plan Organization Plan Operational Plan Summary Appendices Entrepreneurial Interest Small firms play a major role in job creation and innovation Most large organizations provide little opportunity for self-actualization New ventures by female entrepreneurs 3 times that of males Life-Cycle Approach 9 areas of development little statistical significance tend to have self-employed fathers generally know for strong work values and dominant management style Concept Development Identify Needs Target Specs Test Concept Set Final Specs Product Concepts Plan Downstream Select Concept Development Plan Concept Development Identify Needs Target Specs Test Concept Set Final Specs Product Concepts Plan Downstream Perform Economic Analysis Benchmark Competitive Products Test Models / Prototypes Select Concept Development Plan Opportunity Identification Identify Opportunity Determine Capabilities Evaluate Opportunity Select Best Opportunity Summary of Concept Test Concept Nine Categories of Opportunities Increase value of a product or service New applications of existing technologies Creating mass markets Customization for individuals Increasing reach Managing the supply chain Process innovation Increasing the scale of the firm Trends / Opportunities Genetic Engineering, genomics Information technology Food preservation / distribution Video gaming Speech recognition Security systems Nanotechnology Trends / Opportunities Fuel Cells Superconductivity Designer enzymes Smart cards Software security Robots Social / Cultural Trends Aging baby boomers Increasing diversity Two-working parent families Rising middle class in developing nations Changing role of religious organizations Changing role of women Media – DVDs, Internet Growth of Latino population in U.S. Convergence Applications Opportunity Customer Needs Technology Capacity Evaluating Opportunity Capabilities: is it consistent with mission, knowledge base ? Novelty: does product have sufficient differentiating qualities that it creates value for the customer ? Resources: are the available resources sufficient for the venture ? Return: is expected return consistent with the risk of the venture ? Commitment: is the entrepreneurial team sufficiently passionate about the venture that they can commit ? Team: accept risk knowledge base commitment 100% 50% Resources: financial processes human Context: timeliness industry conditions market conditions Opportunity: novelty potential market good risk vs reward Team: accept risk knowledge base commitment 100% 50% Resources: financial processes human Holiday Inn Opportunity: novelty potential market good risk vs reward Context: timeliness industry conditions market conditions Team: accept risk knowledge base commitment 100% 50% Resources: financial processes human Electric Auto Opportunity: novelty potential market good risk vs reward Context: timeliness industry conditions market conditions Product Development Approach Identify Opportunities Evaluate and Prioritize Allocate Resources and Plan Timing Complete Pre-Project Planning Reflect / Evaluate Results Product Development Approach Identify Opportunities Marketing & sales R&D Manufacturing Current / potential customers Third party (competitors) Product Development Approach Evaluate and Prioritize Competitive Strategy Technology leadership Cost leadership Customer focus Imitative Market segmentation Technological trajectories Product platform planning Sales Force Composite Natl. Sales F. P1 520 P2 425 Regional Sales Forecast RMS1 RMS2 RMS3 P1 P2 P1 P2 P1 P2 180 135 190 170 150 120 Sales Force Forecast Dudes Reg 1 P1 P2 100 75 Dudes Reg 2 P1 P2 P1 P2 80 60 120 90 P1 P2 70 80 Dudes Reg 3 P1 P2 60 50 P1 P2 90 70 Marketing Research Systematic, formal, and objective application of scientific method Advantages Accuracy Disadvantages Costly Requires experience, knowledge Can be wrong (New Coke) Market surveys Hire a consultant Generating Creative Business Ideas Ken Olsen Ph.D. student at MIT research team building first MIT computer Liason team with IBM Disgruntled with IBM’s production inefficiencies Started DEC with $70,000 Introduced PDP-1 in 1960 (first small computer) 1964 senior entrepreneurs each totally in charge of a single product line 1979 future in systems and networks, company spent 5 years reorganizing DEC into a unified marketing organization 1994 sales at roughly $14 billion Sources of Ideas Consumers Existing Companies Distribution Channels distributors keenly aware of market trends Federal Government can we improve existing products Patent Office (Official Gazette) Regulations (OSHA) Research & Development Ken Olsen Generating Ideas Focus Groups 8-12 market group conceptualize new product need Brainstorming structured central question is stated each member gives idea in turn (no criticism) ideas written on flip chart ideas generated until all members pass review written list for clarity and discard duplicates unstructured Generating Ideas Variations to Brainstorming visual brainstorming analogies/free-word association 6-3-5 method 6 people 5 minutes 3 ideas pass sheets of 3 ideas to the right 5 minutes 3 ideas which build on first 3 complete 6 rotations (or as many as there are members) Generating Ideas Nominal Group Technique (NGT) generate list of ideas (brainstorm) each member rank orders ideas highest to lowest idea with highest total score gets worked on first Variations One half plus one; eliminate half at a time until arrive at a manageable number Multivoting; rate each idea on scale of 1 to 100 Problem Inventory Analysis easier to relate to known products and criticize to arrive at a new product idea Creative Problem Solving Brainstorming Reverse brainstorming Synetics 2 step problem solving through one of four analogies: personal, direct, symbolic, and fantasy generally requires considerable training limited success with some groups (male eng.) Gordon Method group responds to a general concept respond to related concepts finally respond to actual problem Creative Problem Solving Checklist Method Free Association modify, adapt, put to other uses, substitute, . . . similar to brainstorming - create chain of ideas Forced Relationships Isolate elements of a problem Find relationships between elements Record relationships in an orderly form Analyze relationships to find ideas or patterns Develop new ideas from patterns Creative Problem Solving Value Analysis Attribute Listing maximize value by constructively skimping list attributes of a problem e.g. SD has little economic development, what types of industry/products/services do well here Matrix Charting similar to house of quality Creative Problem Solving Big-Dream Approach ideas should be conceptualized without constraints Parameter Analysis 2 aspects, parameter identification & creative synthesis Market Need Technology Observation Need Analysis Parameter identification Creative synthesis Realization New Product Product Development Process EVALUATE Idea Concept Develop Test Introduction Market Growth Maturity Decline t Evaluation Criteria Evaluation of market demand is most important criterion of a proposed new product idea Competing producers, prices, and marketing strategies should be evaluated New product compatible with existing management New product should contribute to company’s financial structure New product compatible with existing facilities Evaluation Idea Stage each new idea expressed in terms of values & benefits consumers presented with cluster of ideas determine which should be pursued Table 4.4 & 4.5 Concept Stage refined product idea tested to determine consumer acceptance conversational interview - consumers respond to statements that reflect product attributes, quality, reliability, price, promotion, distribution Evaluation Product Development Stage consumer reaction to physical product is determined consumer panel tracks use of product consumer panel records virtues, deficiencies of product and competing products Test Marketing Stage New Coke Evaluation Questions How will this venture do in the short run? long run? Why does this opportunity exist? Is this likely to last? Who will be the first customer to buy? Will it possible for this company to withstand competition if it comes? Who else could enter the market and become competitors? Evaluation Questions What are the 3 critical assumptions upon which success is projected? Can these assumptions be tested? How sensitive are these projections to variations in key assumptions? What is the downside loss if things go unfavorably? What has to happen for break-even to occur? Check Market Fit Target Customers Segmentation Nichemanship Positioning Price/Performance Comparison Grids Relative Market Share