Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Ch10 - U of L Class Index
Document related concepts
Transcript
Chapter 10 Picking the Equity Players 1 You buy a stock, and when it goes up, you sell it. If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it. - Will Rogers 2 Outline Introduction Stock selection philosophy Dividends and why they really do not matter Investment styles Categories of stock 3 Introduction Today’s focus is toward the overall characteristics of portfolios • What principles in security selection are particularly important in the construction and management of a portfolio? • What are the principal categories of common stock? • What are dividends? • What is preferred stock? 4 Stock Selection Philosophy Fundamental analysis Technical analysis 5 Fundamental Analysis A fundamental analyst tries to discern the logical worth of a security based on its anticipated earnings stream The fundamental analyst considers: • • • • Financial statements Industry conditions Prospects for the economy Etc. 6 Technical Analysis A technical analyst attempts to predict the supply and demand for a stock by observing the past series of stock prices Financial statements and market conditions are of secondary importance to the technical analyst 7 Dividends and Why They Really Do Not Matter Types of dividends Issues surrounding the payment of dividends Why dividends do not matter Theory versus practice Stock splits versus stock dividends 8 Types of Dividends Cash dividends Stock dividends Property dividends Spin-offs Rights 9 Cash Dividends Cash dividends are distributions of the firm’s profits to the shareholders paid via a check from the company Cash dividends can sometimes be reinvested via dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs) • Sometimes allow for purchase of additional company shares at a discount 10 Cash Dividends (cont’d) If shares are held in street name: • The brokerage firm receives the dividend check • The brokerage firm may automatically transfer funds to a money market account • The brokerage firm ultimately allocates dividends to the shareholders 11 Cash Dividends (cont’d) If the portfolio manager receives the dividend check: • The funds are temporarily invested in a money market instrument until: – They accumulate sufficiently to finance the purchase of more securities or – They are paid as income to the fund beneficiary 12 Stock Dividends Stock dividends are paid in additional shares of stock rather than in cash Typically announced as a percentage • E.g., 10 percent stock dividends Popular when a firm lacks the funds to pay a cash dividend Popular early in the firm’s life cycle 13 Property Dividends A property dividend is the distribution of physical goods to shareholders • E.g. a firm’s products Property dividends are rare 14 Spin-Offs In a spin-off, a parent firm divests itself of a subsidiary and distributes all shares in the subsidiary proportionally to the parent firm’s shareholders The parent gives away the subsidiary Spin-offs are rare 15 Rights The preemptive right means shareholders have the ability to maintain the same percentage share of ownership in a corporation when the firm sells new shares Existing shareholders can buy new stock at a discount from market price 16 Rights (cont’d) Rights are actual securities that shareholders can buy or sell Rights have a limited life • Usually expire a few weeks after issued 17 Rights (cont’d) Shareholders can do three things with rights: • Sell the rights to someone else • Use the rights to buy more share • Allow the rights to expire – Like throwing away money 18 Issues Surrounding the Payment of Dividends Chronology of events Dividend growth rates 19 Chronology of Events Date of declaration • The day the board announces the dividend • Once declared, the dividend becomes a legal liability of the company Date of payment • The company mails dividend checks 20 Chronology of Events (cont’d) Date of record • Establishes who will receive dividend checks • Shareholders of record are listed on the company records as being owners of the company on the date of record 21 Chronology of Events (cont’d) Ex-dividend date • Two business days prior to the date of record • If you buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, you will get the next dividend • If you buy the stock on the ex-dividend date, you will not get the next dividend • Eliminates any ambiguity about who is entitled to the dividend 22 Chronology of Events (cont’d) Example Consider the following dividend announcement by AECI (a specialty chemical company) on August 2, 2000: Notice is hereby given that an interim dividend of 30 cents per share, in respect of the year ending 31 December 2000, has been declared to holders of ordinary shares registered in the books of the Company at the close of business on 18 August 2000. Payment will be made from the office of the transfer secretaries in Johannesburg on 27 September 2000. Identify the four relevant dividend dates. 23 Chronology of Events (cont’d) Example (cont’d) Solution: The date of declaration is August 2, 2000. The date of record is August 18, 2000. The date of payment is September 27, 2000. The ex-dividend date is August 16, 2000. 24 Dividend Growth Rates Corporations like to establish predictable dividend payout patterns including an annual increase in their dividends Many fundamental analysts focus on the dividend growth rate to determine value 25 Dividend Growth Rates (cont’d) The dividend discount model: D0 (1 g ) D1 P0 kg kg where D0 = the current dividend D1 = the dividend to be paid next year g the expected dividend growth rate k the discount factor according to the riskiness of the stock P0 the current stock price 26 Dividend Growth Rates (cont’d) You can solve for the required rate of return, k: • Observe the current dividend and price • Obtain the growth rate using historical information and analysts’ estimates • Solve for k: D0 (1 g ) k g P0 27 Dividend Growth Rates (cont’d) Example Assume a company just paid a dividend of $1.20 per share. Historically, the company has increased its dividends by 3 percent annually with great consistency. No analyst estimates regarding the next dividend are available. The firm’s current stock price is $20 per share. What is an estimate of the required rate of return for this stock? 28 Dividend Growth Rates (cont’d) Example (cont’d) Solution: Using the numbers in the dividend discount model: D0 (1 g ) k g P0 1.20(1.03) 0.03 20 0.0918 9.18% 29 Why Dividends Do Not Matter Payment of dividends reduces the balance in the firm’s cash account • The firm should not be worth as much after paying a dividend The ex-dividend date determines whether or not you get the dividend • On the ex-dividend date, the price of a share of stock tends to fall by about the amount of the dividend to be paid 30 Theory Versus Practice Dividend policy is very important in practice Unexpected changes in dividend policy can result in significant changes in the market price of the associated common stock 31 Theory Versus Practice (cont’d) Most firms increase their dividend annually, and the market expects this • If management does not increase the dividend as expected, the market views it as bad news Reducing or omitting a dividend is a very bad signal An increase in dividends above what the market expects is a good signal 32 Stock Splits Versus Stock Dividends Stock splits Why stock splits do not matter Why firms split their stock Stock dividends 33 Stock Splits A stock split occurs when a firm changes the number of shares of its capital stock without changing the aggregate value of these shares A stock split is generally a neutral occurrence • The primary motivation is to reduce the price of shares to bring it into an optimal trading range 34 Stock Splits (cont’d) In a forward split (regular way split or direct split), shareholders receive more shares as a result of the split • E.g., a two-for-one split In a reverse split, the number of shares is reduced • E.g., 1-for-10 split 35 Stock Splits (cont’d) Odd lot-generating splits are stock split likely to result in many small investors holding odd lots • E.g., a 3-for-2 split 36 Why Stock Splits Do Not Matter Stock splits neither increase nor decrease investor’s wealth • You cannot increase the total amount available by increasing the pieces of a pie • E.g., a 2-for-1 split simply doubles the number of shares 37 Why Firms Split Their Stock Some literature supports the existence of an optimal trading range • A principal reason for splitting shares is “to broaden the ownership base” Reverse splits are sometimes used to reduce the number of shareholders • E.g., a 1-for-200 splits eliminates all shareholders holding fewer than 200 shares 38 Stock Dividends Stock dividends are not different from stock splits for the investor • E.g., a 100 percent stock dividend is the same as a 2-for-1split The difference between stock dividends and stock split is an accounting phenomenon • A split alters the par value • A stock dividend means new shares are issued 39 Investment Styles Value investing Growth investing Capitalization Integrating style and size 40 Value Investing Definition Price/earnings ratio Price/book ratio 41 Definition Value investors look for undervalued stock Utilize the firm’s earnings history and balance sheet • PE ratio, price/book ratio Place much emphasis on known facts 42 Price/Earnings Ratio The PE ratio is stock price divided by EPS A forward-looking PE uses earnings forecasts A trailing PE uses historical earnings 43 Price/Book Ratio The price/book ratio is the stock price divided by book value per share • Book value is the firm’s assets minus its liabilities • Book value is different from market value Value investors look for low price/book ratios 44 Growth Investing Growth investors look for price momentum • Look for stocks that are in favor and have been advancing • Look for stocks that are likely to be propelled even higher The market moves in cycles • Many investors own both growth and value stocks 45 Capitalization Capitalization refers to the aggregate value of a company’s common stock Typical • • • • divisions are: Large cap ($1 billion or more) Mid-cap (between $500 million and $1 billion) Small cap (less than $500 million) Micro cap 46 Integrating Style and Size Many money managers distribute their assets across size and style spectrums www.morningstar.com provides a style box that can classify a portfolio 47 Categories of Stock Blue chip stock Income stocks Cyclical stocks Defensive stocks Growth stocks Speculative stocks Penny stocks 48 Categories of Stock (cont’d) Categories are not mutually exclusive A note on stock symbols 49 Blue Chip Stock Blue chip has become a colloquial term meaning “high quality” • Some define blue chips as firms with a long, uninterrupted history of dividend payments • The term blue chip lacks precise meaning, but some examples are: – Coca-Cola – Union Pacific – General Mills 50 Income Stocks Income stocks are those that historically have paid a larger-than-average percentage of their net income as dividends • The proportion of net income paid out as dividends is the payout ratio • The proportion of net income retained is the retention ratio Examples include Consolidated Edison and Allegheny Energy 51 Cyclical Stocks Cyclical stocks are stocks whose fortunes are directly tied to the state of the overall national economy Examples include steel companies, industrial chemical firms, and automobile producers 52 Defensive Stocks Defensive stocks are the opposite of cyclical stocks • They are largely immune to changes in the macroeconomy and have low betas Examples include retail food chains, tobacco and alcohol firms, and utilities 53 Growth Stocks Growth stocks do not pay out a high percentage of their earnings as dividends • They reinvest most of their earnings into investment opportunities • Many growth stocks do pay dividends 54 Speculative Stocks Speculative stocks are those that have the potential to make their owners rich quickly Speculative stocks carry an above-average level of risk Most speculative stocks are relatively new companies with representation in the technology, bioresearch, and pharmaceutical industries 55 Penny Stocks Penny stocks are inexpensive shares Penny stocks sell for $1 per share or less 56 Categories Are Not Mutually Exclusive An income stock or a growth stock can also be a blue chip • E.g., Potomac Electric Power Defensive or cyclical stocks can be growth stocks • E.g., Dow Chemical is a cyclical growth stock 57 A Note on Stock Symbols Ticker symbols are identification codes Stock symbols have one to four letters • One, two, or three letters identifies a stock listed on either the NYSE or the AMEX • Four-digit symbols identify firms traded on the Nasdaq 58
