Download () More haste, less speed: changing

More haste, less speed:
changing behaviour for safety and
sustainability
22nd PACTS Westminster Lecture
30th November 2011
Dr Jillian Anable
Centre for Transport Research
University of Aberdeen
([email protected])
This lecture will suggest reasons
why…
…the mere proposition of increasing motorway
speed limits exemplifies the tendency for UK
transport policy to ignore some of the most robust
evidence on ‘what works’ to achieve its
objectives. This includes evidence about public
acceptability, human nature and the ‘attitude behaviour’ relationship, not to mention evidence
on the likely detrimental impacts on safety, the
environment and the economy.
J. Anable, November 2011
A three-legged race…
1.
2.
3.
He said what?!! Recent pronouncements on
speed limits in the UK
The pivotal role of speed control in transport
policy
Why and how to bring the road safety and
sustainability agendas together
The proposal:

Philip Hammond:
“Increasing the speed limit on motorways from 70 to 80
miles per hour for cars, light vans and motorcycles could
provide hundreds of millions of pounds of benefits for the
economy and I will put forward formal proposals for making
these changes later this year.”
(DfT Press Release, 3/10/11)

Justine Greening:
“It is quite right’ to look at whether it is appropriate to raise
that. We spend an awful lot of time talking about congestion,
but it is important to say that we have motorways so let’s
make sure people can travel from A to B along them as fast
as possible.”
(House of Commons Transport Select Committee, 19/10/11)
Their justification
Vehicles (and roads) have got safer since the
current speed limit was set in 1965
 Safety is not the only consideration – there
are hundreds of millions of pounds per year to
be had from savings in travel time
 As 49% of motorists break the speed limit – it
would ‘restore moral legitimacy of the system’

(DfT Press Release, 3/10/11)
Speeding on UK motorways
115
Average car speed, percentage of cars exceeding speed limit
and average vehicle delay (minutes per 10 miles), UK
motorways (2005 - 2010)
Average car speed
110
% exceeding limit
index 2005 = 100
105
vehicle delay (July)
100
95
90
85
2010:
- 49% of cars exceeded
70mph (from 56% in 2005)
- Ave speed = 69mph (from
71 mph in 2005)
80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: DfT (2011) Free Flow Vehicle Speeds / DfT (2011) Journey time reliability measure on inter-urban roads
Slower growth/ reduction in traffic
Chart TRA0102: Road traffic by road class, Great Britain: 2000 - 2010
Source: National Road Traffic Survey, Department for Transport
120
Traffic volume index: 1999 = 100
115
Motorway
Rural minor roads
Rural 'A' roads
Urban minor roads
Urban 'A' roads
All roads
1% of road length
but 20% of car
miles
110
105
100
95
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Recent trends – ‘peak car’?
Trips
pp/yr
Also signs that the trend in
‘sustainable’ modes is
starting to reverse
Miles
pp/yr
Turning point ca. 1992 and
recent downturn preceded
the recession
Source: Goodwin,P. (2011) based on UK National Travel Survey
Peak Car – Global Trend
Source: Millard-Ball, Adam and Schipper, Lee(2011) 'Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger
Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries', Transport Reviews, 31: 3, 357 — 378,
Changing attitudes? Changing
norms?
“… our attitudes have only really started to change in
the last few years. Two years ago, the number of
motorists saying they’d find it difficult to adjust their
lifestyle to not having a car stood at 87%; in 2007 it fell
to 81% and this year it’s down to 73%. Which means
one in six motorists who, just two years ago, said they’d
find it very difficult to adjust no longer say that.”
“Compared with 20 years ago, the proportion of us who
drive more than 12,000 miles a year has fallen from
26% to 15%...All this points towards a slow, subtle but
still fundamental shift in our car-dependency.”
RAC (2008) RAC Report on Motoring. Report 1
Back to motorway speed limits: the
potential to save carbon
4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road
transport CO2 & 8% of all CO2
4 wheeled
vehicles on
70mph roads:
13.2 MtC (8%)
Ca. 50% of
cars exceed
the speed limit
on motorways
Total road
transport:
33 MtC (21%)
All UK
emissions:
156.1 MtC
UKERC modelling: assumptions





Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled
vehicles
Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint
projections for interurban roads to 2010
No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing
Average emissions coefficients reflecting:
(i) fleet technology mix for each year
(ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data)
All distance previously driven above 70mph or 60mph
redistributed to highest remaining band
Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits
and carbon emissions
[% share of total in speed bracket]
Motorway
speed
limits
model
setup
40
35
Current
113kph (70mph) "strictly enforced"
30
130kph (80mph) "not strictly enforced"
25
100kph (62mph) "strictly enforced"
20
15
10
5
0
speed brackets [kph]
Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits
and carbon emissions
Motorway speed limits - key results
Life-cycle
carbon in
2020
change vs REF
(MtCO2e pa)
change vs REF*
(% over total)
113kph
(70mph)
130kph
(80mph)
100kph
(62mph)
-1.3
+1.3
-2.7
-0.9% +0.7% -2.1%
*Current emissions from passenger cars in the UK = 70 MtCO2 per annum (DECC 2010)
Anable, J. & Brand, C. (2011) UKERC Policy Brief: Speed limits
and carbon emissions
Projected CO2 savings from transport policies in 2020
(comparison of DECC 2011 and UKERC Speed enforcement analysis)
Local Sustainable Transport Fund
Enforcing 70 mph
could provide 11%
extra carbon
savings from
transport in 2020
Rail electrification
Low carbon buses
Industry led action to improve HGV
efficiencies
Low rolling resistance tyres for HGVs
EU complementary measures for cars
EU new van CO2 regulation – 147gCO2/km
RES Transport biofuel (8% by energy)
EU new car CO2 long term target 95gCO2/km
80mph speed (loosely enforced)
-
0.5
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Carbon Abatement in 2020 (MtCO2e)
4.5
Saving Oil in a hurry
US: speed reduction policy during 1970s oil
crisis
 UK: ‘natural’ reduction in average speeds
during 2000 ‘fuel protests’
 IEA: ‘large’ and rapid oil savings in times of
emergency (IEA (2005) Saving Oil in a Hurry)

When do we claim ourselves to be in the
middle of a fuel crisis?
Additional carbon savings?
1.
Reduction in traffic growth

Invariant travel-time budgets

SACTRA: travel speeds affect the amount of traffic – increased speed =
extra traffic
2.
Maximising capacity by improving traffic flow

3.
Lower differential, smoother driving, fewer crashes and disruption
Rationalising car design

Capping speeds – a ‘system boundary’

Set the context for lighter, less powerful, more efficient vehicles

Speed enforcement – encourage voluntary uptake of speed limiters
Other benefits
Early win / certainty – no technological innovation
required
 Safety benefits – reduction of deaths on
motorways
 Cost effectiveness – immediate carbon savings
are cheaper = net benefit to society
 Equity – reduce the differential between the fast
and the slow, the rich and the poor

A systems approach
REDUCE
SPEED
Reduce
CO2
Rationalise
Car Market
Reduce
CASUALTIES
Reduce
Traffic
Demand
Improve
Traffic Flow
Anable, J., Mitchell, P. and Layberry, R. (2006) Getting the genie back in the bottle.
LowCVP Road Transport Challenge, June 2006
2. The pivotal role of
speed control
Speed control – why so pivotal?
Speed control epitomises the lack of:
a. Support for regulatory interventions
b. Understanding about attitudes and their role
c. Acceptance of human nature
d. Attention to evidence in policy making
+ Ability to adopt ‘bind’ multiple aims together
(a) De-regulation and nudging
“There has been the assumption that central
government can only change people’s
behaviour through rules and regulations. Our
government will be a much smarter one,
shunning the bureaucratic levers of the past and
finding intelligent ways to encourage, support
and enable people to make better choices for
themselves.”
(Cabinet Office (May 2010) The Coalition: our programme for Government)
What do we mean by behaviour
change?
A “behaviour change” intervention is a
coordinated set of activities designed to
change specified behaviour patterns
 Therefore all policies are behaviour change
policies


But, “behaviour change” is very much used
as a shorthand for alternatives to regulation
and fiscal measures
Travel behaviour change is not just about
mode switch



Purchasing - which cars are
bought
Driving - how cars are driven
Use - how much cars are driven











Mode choice
Car occupancy
Timing
Route choice
Frequency
Trip-chaining
Destinations / distance
Parking
Residential location choice
Work location choice
Substitution (eg with ICT)
25
What is a nudge?
“Any aspect of the choice architecture that
alters people’s behaviour in a predictable way
without forbidding any options or significantly
changing their economic incentives.”
“To count as a mere nudge, the intervention
must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are
not mandates.”
Thaler and Sunstein (2008)
Persuasion and education is not
‘nudge’

Not all non-regulatory measures are nudges:
 Nudges prompt choices without conscious
deliberation – therefore media campaigns/
education and persuasion is not ‘nudge’
 But, the nudge ethos could be used to deliver
education and training

Nudge’s themselves may be provided through
regulatory means:
 E.g. regulation to require car manufacturers to put
CO2 information on car advertisements
Use of social
norms & salience
Changes to the
default policy
Changes to
physical env’nt
Provision of
information
Fiscal
Persuasion /
education
Non fiscal (dis)incentives
Fiscal incentives
Regulation
Fiscal disincentives
Restrict Choice
Eliminate Choice
Types of policy
Non-regulatory and non-fiscal
Choice Architecture
(“Nudges”)
Guide and enable choice
These are nudges …
These aren’t...
Has nudging worked in travel demand
management?
Only as part of mixed packages of
interventions
 Smarter choices – encompass nudging but
are not synonymous with it ...

What are Smarter Choices?








Techniques to Encourage sustainable
travel choices
+ Engage with people about their travel choices
+ Enable these choices
+ Exemplify through political and social advocacy
Individual + community level
More psychology than engineering
But they involve promotion and provision as well
as regulatory and fiscal measures
Therefore – they are not synonymous with NUDGE
E.gs: Travel planning (workplace, schools, residential,
leisure); car sharing; tele/ videoconferencing; individualised
marketing; branding and promotion; car clubs; cycle training.
Sustainable Travel Towns
2004 – 2009: £10m from DfT +
£5m from each town
•Darlington £4.4m
•Worcester £4.4
•Peterborough £6.8m
= £10 per head