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C.Links of Host Defense Efficiency with Tumor Burden and Age Hamlin (1968) uses histological appearance to analyze tumor grade (high malignancy = M++, lower = M+) and strength of host immunological response (very strong defense = D++, strong = D+, weak = D-) for 272 breast carcinomas. In Table II Hamlin shows that good immunological response does extend survival: 1 Interplay of Malignancy and Defense on Breast Cancer Mortality M++ graded tumors Dead at Dead at 5 years 10 years Patients 55 D++ 20 36.4% 24 43.6% 88 D+ 46 52.3% 57 64.8% 68 D- 52 76.5% 64 94.1% 118 55.9% 145 68.7% 211 Total Patients M+ graded tumors Dead at Dead at 5 years 10 years 27 D++/D+ 9 33.3% 12 44.4% 34 D- 10 29.4% 15 44.1% 61 Total 19 31.1% 27 44.3% In Table III Hamlin shows a weaker host defense with aging: 2 Immunological Response to Breast Cancer Host Defense Ages 30-44 Ages 45-59 Ages 60+ Total Weaker (D-) 19 33.9% 49 37.4% 36 42.4% 104 38.2% Stronger (D+/D++) 37 66.1% 82 62.6% 49 57.6% 168 61.8% Quan and Mitchell (1995) note that natural killer cells are a nonspecific tumor control agent that may be most effective with small tumor burdens. They cite clinical observation of immunologic reactivity against human cancer which include cases of spontaneous tumor regression, shrinkage and dormancy of metastases after removal of the primary tumor, increased incidence of certain tumors in immunosuppressed patients and higher incidence of cancer in the elderly (who have weaker immune systems). 1 Because host defenses work best with a low body tumor burden, they probably reinforce the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy most in patients with small node-negative breast cancer. Thus Zambetti et al (1992) report seven-year results from the Milan node-negative trial: It is worth mentioning that in the control group, 5 of ten patients presenting with tumors measuring 1.5 cm or less developed new disease manifestations compared to 2 of 15 in the CMF group. Because of overexpression of the HER-2 gene on the cell membrane, HER2+ tumor cells may be easier for natural killer cells to recognize and destroy. O'Reilly et al (1991) found that the median S-Phase Fraction (SPF) of HER2+ tumors (10.5%) was significantly higher than the median SPF for HER2- tumors (7.9%). While HER-2 (also c-erbB-2) status accounts for only a small fraction of SPF variability, tumors positive for this oncogene have a substantially elevated SPF. Borg et al (1991) report results (at 138) for a large panel of invasive breast tumors: ERBB2 amplification was strongly correlated to an increased rate of cell proliferation, measured as a high percentage of cells in SPF [S-Phase Fraction]. This connection was seen in both diploid and non-diploid tumors, though the former group had a significantly lower mean SPF than the latter (Table 3). 3 South Swedish S-Phase Fraction vs HER-2 Amplification (Mixed Estrogen-Receptor and Nodal-Status Breast Cancer) SPF Non-Diploid cases % Ampl SPF Diploid cases % Ampl < 7% 68 5.9% < 7% 142 9.9% 7-12% 75 13.3% > 7% 43 27.9% >12% 159 32.7% Total 302 21.9% 185 14.1% 2 However, HER2+ tumors have a characteristic which is usually associated with slower growing tumors, a larger share of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Thus Liu et al (1992) note that HER2+ status is much more common in DCIS tumors than in invasive nodenegative tumors, and even more common than in node-positive ones: The results showed that nearly twice as many in situ carcinomas harbored increased HER2 gene copies as seen in the nodepositive carcinomas (48% vs 21%, p< 0.01). Earlier studies have reported 42-61% of ductal CIS tumors with HER2 overexpression as compared with 14-21% of stage II breast cancers [5 citations]. Id. at 1030. It is probably the overexpression of HER2 protein which gives natural killer cells a way to distinguish this variant of breast cancer from normal tissue, and helps inhibit its spread beyond the milk duct where it originated. Host-defense vulnerability of HER2+ tumors also helps to explain the weak prognostic impact of HER2 status among node-negative patients (Slamon, 1989; O'Reilly et al, 1991), since these patients have the strongest host defenses. Because adriamycin-based adjuvant chemotherapy produces the greatest attrition of metastatic tumor colonies, it may extend survival (even after relapse, as Giordano et al, 2002 have shown). Recently Moliterni et al (2001) reported evidence from a Milan clinical trial that when more intensive chemotherapy reduces the body tumor burden below the host-defense-containment level, the lasting benefit is greater among HER2-positive tumors. This gain from substituting doxorubicin for one-third of the rounds of CMF did not manifest itself at all until many years after adjuvant 3 chemotherapy was completed. This is what one would expect if the recognition and attrition of tumor cells which overexpress HER2 protein is effective only at low levels of body tumor burden, with the advantage becoming apparent only when such borderline cases in the other arm produced widespread metastases and death. If HER2+ tumors were simply more sensitive to doxorubicin, the advantage would not have taken seven years to become apparent. Before adjuvant chemotherapy was commonly used, there is evidence that host defenses by themselves could delay a substantial number of relapses. Demicheli et al (1996) analyzed the timing of recurrence for 1173 Milan Tumor Institute breast cancer patients treated from 1964 to 1980 with mastectomy alone and no adjuvant therapy. The authors of this study note an effect like the bursting of a dam: In particular, a first major peak at about 18 months from surgery, a second minor peak at about 60 months and a tapered plateau-like tail extending up to 15 years were clearly detectable. . . . This general pattern of hazard rate curves appeared substantially unchanged when different strata of patients were considered (Figures 3-5). Id. at 179. In Figure 2 a "bottling up" of distant recurrences is quite apparent around four years, where the hazard rate is about 1/3 lower than it would be in a linear interpolation between the rates at three and five years. Fisher et al (1996) report sites of treatment failure for the five-years-of-tamoxifen-vs-placebo randomization (in Table 3) that fit the hypothesis that tamoxifen reinforces the efforts of host defenses best when the tumor burden is at a low level (as it is 4 more likely to be with small tumor colonies left in the ipsilateral breast than with contralateral tumors which may be approaching the detection threshold when tamoxifen therapy starts): 4 Ten-Year Data for NSABP Trial B-14 (Ipsilateral Relapses vs Contralateral Breast Cancers) Ipsilateral Contralateral Total 1404 Tamoxifen Patients 18 24.7% 56 40.6% 74 35.1% 1414 Placebo Patients 55 75.3% 82 59.4% 137 64.9% 2818 Total of Patients 73 100.0% 138 100.0% 211 100.0% Tam/Plac As data 0.33 0.68 2p = 0.021 for contralateral breast cancers which contrasts experience for five years of tamoxifen with a placebo in NSABP Trial B-24 (Fisher et al, 1999) illustrate (in Table 2), adjuvant tamoxifen therapy has a greater ability to restrain the growth of tumors to detectable dimensions, when the tumors are still at the non-invasive (DCIS) stage than when they have progressed to the invasive stage (INVBC): 5 60-Month Data for NSABP Trial B-24 (Noninvasive vs Invasive Contralateral Breast Cancers) DCIS 899 Tamoxifen Patients INVBC Total 3 18.8% 15 39.5% 18 33.3% 899 Placebo Patients 13 81.2% 23 60.5% 36 66.7% 1798 Total of Patients 16 100.0% 38 100.0% 36 100.0% Tam/Plac 0.23 0.65 1p = 0.072 Parallel tendencies can be seen in trends for contralateral (usually early stage) tumors and distant (usually more advanced) 5 recurrences in NSABP Trial B-14: here Fisher et al (2001) report that the longer-tamoxifen arm has only 5/6 as many contralateral breast cancers (2.9% vs 3.5%), but 1 1/2 times as many distant recurrences (4.5% vs 3.0%). 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