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Jakub Basista, PhD, DLitt Institute of History Jagiellonian University COLD WAR 2016/2017 Meeting 5 Lecture Notes American grand strategy after WW II. Soviet grand strategy after WW II. Synopsis The alliance and cooperation of WW II soon disappeared when problems of establishment of new peace order appeared in 1945-47. The US, the true winner of the war was interested in constructing peace in the world, yet with their very specific dominant position. The new president, Harry Truman, did not want US economy to fold after the war and looked for a way to stimulate European and world development to have partners in continuation of American development and progress. On the other hand relations with USSR deteriorated and conflicts emerged over Soviet spy networks, Soviet involvement in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Soviet aspirations to have access to the Mediterranean Sea, as well as spread of communism. Not last were the issues of Communism in other countries and potential development and unity of Germany. These are the roots of the policy of containment, the Truman doctrine, as well as the Marshall plan. Initial concept to keep out of far East Asia proved futile as Stalin and Mao pushed North Korea to war for Communism. Truman’s successor decided to change US policy and introduce new doctrine and new methods in opposing the Communist threat. USSR and Stalin, on the other hand, lived in the conviction of being constantly threatened by imperialism and the need to form a buffer zone to defend its borders against possible attack. The buffer zone – unfortunately – was not the result of a set of alliances, but imposed Communist regimes in European states. 1945 12 April Roosevelt dies; Harry Truman assumes office (He felt „like the moon, the stars, and all the planets had fallen” on him. „Pray for me now” he whispered to friendly reporters…). 24 July President Truman’s conversation with Stalin, during which the President informs Stalin that the United States had successfully detonated the first atomic bomb on July 16, 1945. 2 August Termination of the Potsdam meeting 5 September Igor Gouzenko, a cryptologist at the USSR embassy in Ottawa, defects from the embassy learning that he is being summoned to Moscow; Gouzenko, over the next months, reveals the Soviet spy network in the USA, Canada and Great Britain seeking to steal the secret of nuclear weapon production 27 October Truman’s Navy Day speech: self-determination and national sovereignity; open trade; freedom of seas; unrestricted acces to raw materials; international cooperation; panAmericanism and United Nations. Demobilization of US armed forces; issues and conflicts between various arms. Truman’s doubts about US policy (Secretary Byrnes) in particular Soviet withdrawal from Iran and the isue of Turkey/Black Sea. 1946 9 February Stalin’s speech on the “Controversies between Capitalism and Communism” 22 February George F. Kennan’s long telegram from Moscow (8,000 word cable describing the world from the Soviet perspective) 5 March Winston Churchill’s Iron Curtain speech 1947 12 March Harry Truman announces an address to a joint session of Congress, what becomes known as the Truman Doctrine for the containment of Communism and struggle against “world revolution”. Accepted by Senate (22 April) and House of Rep. (10 May) this doctrine was applied in Greece and Turkey. July George F. Kennan publishes an article: The Source of Soviet Conduct, in Foreign Affairs signed by X. The article, together with the earlier long telegram speak of the policy of “containment” of Communism. Kennan was deemed to be a principal architect of America's Cold War strategy. Kennan died in 2005. 5-6 June Announcing of the Marshall Plan (George C. Marshall, US Secretary of State announces a Project of European Reconstruction) 18 September Central Intelligence Agency called to life 1948 24 June Beginning of the Berlin blockade (initiated by gen. Lucius Clay, the airlift supplied West Berlin with all items necessary to live and survive). 1949 4 April establishing of NATO (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, UK, USA; in 1952 Turkey and Greece join NATO) 5 May Treaty of London establishes the Council of Europe 8 April creation of Trizonia 23 May Federal Republic of Germany formed 29 August USSR explodes an atomic bomb; the first Soviet atomic test was internally code-named First Lightning (Первая молния, or Pervaya Molniya) 30 September Last flight of the operation Berlin Blockade takes place 7 October German Democratic Republic formed 1950 12 January US Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, announces that American “cordon sanitaire” does not include South Korea; news about such conduct, together with intelligence materials convince Stalin to push Kim Il Sung to act, as well as further back Ho Chi Minh’s war in Vietnam 7 April NSC 68 presented to Truman on 14 April. According to the report, the United States should vigorously pursue a policy of “containing” Soviet expansion. NSC-68 recommended that the United States embark on rapid military expansion of conventional forces and the nuclear arsenal, including the development of the new hydrogen bomb. In addition, massive increases in military aid to U.S. allies were necessary as well as more effective use of “covert” means to achieve U.S. goals. The price of these measures was estimated to be about $50 billion; at the time the report was issued, America was spending just $13 billion on defense. http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/president-truman-receives-nsc-68 20 June Acheson briefs US Congress that war is unlikely 25 June North Korea attacks South Korea (North Korean army numbers over 135,000 + 40,000 troops supplied by China; the army is well armed with modern Soviet arms; South Korea has an army of 95,000 poorly armed and lack of concrete support from the USA) 1952 Dwight Eisenhower is elected president of the USA. Harry Truman decided not to run for the third term. Eisenhower chose Richard Nixon as his vicepresident. In 1952, as well as four years later, he won over Adlai Stevenson. 1953 January Eisenhower is sworn into office; he faces a challenge to reduce the military budget, without reducing American effective military performance. John Foster Dulles, a ‘sworn’ antiCommunist (referred to as the apostle of antiCommunism), becomes the Secretary of State and is largely responsible for US foreign policy. July End of war in Korea meets Eisenhower’s electoral promises and brings national backing. 30 October Eisenhower approves the NSC 162/2 (National Security At a press conference in 1953 Eisenhower, pressed by the journalists, admitted that he would consider making nuclear warheads available to Germany if necessary. Eisenhower expected Europe to defend itself and was aiming at withdrawal of US troops from Europe, with greater reliance on nuclear forces. John Foster Dulles – Eisenhower’s secretary of state (aristocratic corporate lawyer); begins by denouncing ‘containment’ policy as passive and pursuing active foreign policy not only to contain communism, but also to push it back and liberate various parts of the world Dulles’ doctrines: policy of “massive retaliation” intensified unification through mutual defense pacts (about a dozen pacts by the end of 1950s brinksmanship - January 16, 1956; an attempt of pushing the Soviet Union to the brink of war in order to exact concessions. Massive Retaliation Doctrine The United States should be prepared to respond to a Soviet-backed conventional threat anywhere in the world with a nuclear strike against the territory of the Soviet Union itself. New Look Policy Doctrine A shift from nuclear superiority, towards nuclear sufficiency.Flexibility, tactical attack, “limited war”. OPERATION SOLARIUM Unique exercise in the history of the Cold War. Eisenhower formed three separate teams to prepare and analyze three scenarios. Force A was to analyze the continuation of Truman Doctrine (George F.Kennan). Force B was analyze more assertive policy, pulling back from some positions and making clear what will be defended at all cost. Force C was to look into the possible aggressive policy with the aim of „rolling back” Communism. NSC 162/2 – Eisenhower Doctrine of Massive Retaliation NSC 162/2 of 30 October 1953 defines policy during the Dwight D. Eisenhower administration – the New Look national security policy. It states that the United States need to maintain "a strong military posture, with emphasis on the capability of inflicting massive retaliatory damage by offensive striking power", and that the United States "will consider nuclear weapons as available for use as other munitions”. This new doctrine means that the USA will not refrain from the use of nuclear weapons if needed. One can see the military rhetoric, but also general’s approach and look in it. Vice President Richard Nixon in The New York Times on 14 March 1954 stated: "Rather than let the Communists nibble us to death all over the world in little wars, we would rely in the future primarily on our massive mobile retaliatory power which we could use in our discretion against the major source of aggression at times and places that we choose.„ In April 1954, Dulles made an effort to weaken the rhetoric in a Foreign Affairs article: "It should not be stated in advance precisely what would be the scope of military action if new aggression occurred.... That is a matter to which the aggressor had best remain ignorant. But he can know and does know, in the light of present policies, that the choice in this respect is ours and not his." 1954 1 January legacy of $42 billion for military spending left by Truman 12 January Dulles presents the new doctrine of massive retaliation before Council on Foreign Relations 1 July restructured budget of $36 billion for the military December Joseph McCarthy is condemned by the Senate by 67 to 22 for “conduct unbecoming a senator” 1957 January Eisenhower Doctrine (a country could request American economic assistance and/or aid from U.S. military forces if it was being threatened by armed aggression from another state) 1958 29 July The creation of NASA as an answer to the Soviet launching of the Sputnik (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Three policy options for reduced military budget were considered: the Truman-Acheson approach of containment and reliance on conventional forces; response to limited Soviet "aggression" in one location with nuclear weapons; serious "liberation" based on an economic response to the Soviet political-military-ideological challenge to Western hegemony: propaganda campaigns and psychological warfare. The third option was strongly crticised and eventually rejected. Eisenhower opted instead for a combination of the first two, one that confirmed the validity of containment, but with reliance on the American air-nuclear deterrent. This was geared toward avoiding costly and unpopular ground wars, such as Korea. SOVIET POLICY, DOUBTS, PLANS • • • • • Stalin in Teheran and Yalta Stalin in Potsdam 1946 9 February Stalin’s speech on the “Controversies between Capitalism and Communism” 1947 September: Calling to life of Cominform 1949 January: Calling to life of Comecon POLAND 1945-1989 Northern Group of Forces initially in the number of 300,000-400,000 not regulated by any treaty 17 December 1956 Bilateral Treaty with USSR signed between Gomułka and Khruschev regulating the presence of Soviet Troops (limited supposedly to 66,000) and to 39 bases (in reality almost 80) HUNGARY 4 April 1945 – Soviet troops push Hungarian and German Nazi troops out of Hungary. 1949 multual treaty regulating the presence of Soviet troops in Hungary. Societ Troops in Hungary were part of the so-called Central Group of Forces based in Hungary and Austria with staff in Austria. CZECHOSLOVAKIA 4 April 1945 – Soviet troops push Hungarian and German Nazi troops out of Hungary. 1949 multual treaty regulating the presence of Soviet troops in Hungary. Societ Troops in Hungary were part of the so-called Central Group of Forces based in Hungary and Austria with staff in Austria. Romania – Soviet troops stationed 1944-1956. ABout 130,000 following the war and about 30,000 after the Paris Peace Treaty of 10 February 1947. The last troops were withdrawn in August 1958. Bulgaria – Soviet troops withdrawn in 1947. GERMANY Group of Soviet Occupation Forces in Germany (1945–54) and the Western Group of Forces (1988–94). In 1991 there were still about 380,000 Soviet soldiers in the GDR. 1985 The GSFG (Group of Soviet Forces in Germany). By far the largest group of Soviet forces outside of the Soviet Union, the GSFG has an estimated manpower of 380,000 /…/ (By comparison, there are 80,000 members of the Soviet forces in Czechoslovakia; 65,000 in Hungary; and 40,000 in Poland.) http://osaarchivum.org/files/holdings/300/8/3/text/27-2-110.shtml