Download Climate Change Impacts in the Interior Columbia Basin

Climate Change Impacts
in the
Interior Columbia Basin
Impacts at the Subbasin Level
• Terrestrial
– Fires will increase in frequency, intensity and duration
– Outbreaks of insects and other pests will increase
– Sagebrush-Steppe and grassland habitat will decline substantially
• Biological
– Many species’ ranges will shift northward and upward in elevation
– Organisms with short life histories are apt to adapt to climate change
better then organisms with longer life histories
– There will be mismatches of formerly coordinated timing between
interdependent species resulting in breeding failures, lack of
appropriate food, and weather extremes
Source: ISAB 2007
Impacts at the Subbasin Level
(continued)
• Aquatic
– Warm water fishes are likely to increase in abundance and range,
increasing competition and predation on salmonids
– Salmonid habitat losses will be significant
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Trout: 8-33% by 2090
Salmon in OR & ID: potentially exceeding 40% by 2090
Salmon in WA: 22% by 2090
Bull trout: 22-90%
Lower disease resistance
Effect of toxics will increase
Higher summer low-flow mortality
Higher metabolic rates require more food to reach smolt size
Impacts at the Subbasin Level
(continued)
• Economic
– Present land uses may become less economically
viable
• Grazing
• Irrigation
– New opportunities will emerge
– Sustainability must be a key criterion
Source: ISAB 2007
Impacts on Salmon
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Individual Fish Impacts
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Ecosystem Impacts
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Earlier emergence
Higher physiological stress
Lower disease resistance
Increased competition and predation
Disruption in ecosystem processes (flow, food, etc.)
Changing marine ecosystems (more acidic, upwelling?, etc.)
Regional Impacts
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Reduced total habitat
Redistribution of the most suitable habitat areas
Changes in land uses and local economies
Responses
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Protect and Restore Ecosystem Functions
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Develop Multi-Disciplinary Strategies
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Prioritize areas (biggest bang for the buck)
Protect and restore habitat
Increase retention time of water in watersheds
Physical problems (hydrology, erosion, climatology, etc.)
Biological problems (invasives, toxicology, energy budgets)
Social problems (population growth, sustainable economies)
Build Alliances and Partnerships
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Problems are too big and complex for individual groups
Leverage resources
Greater political influence
New Technical Tools to Address
Climate Change Impacts
Are Available
LIDAR and FLIR technology can collect data rapidly
LIDAR is like a subbasin “X-Ray”, revealing historic stream
channels
LIDAR can also reveal
areas at high risk of
landslides
FLIR surveys reveal temperature patterns
FLIR can be used to monitor temperature at
different times of day.
New Technological Tools
• Greater analytical ability
• Multidisciplinary issues
• Biology
• Geomorphology
• Economics
• Sociology
• Community of Stakeholders
• Communication
• Ongoing involvement
• Trust
• Ownership of strategies
Subbasin Options
• Plan from a broad perspective
• Prioritize areas for action to maximize use of time and
money
• Protect and restore features that store water
• wetlands
• floodplains
• Manage water withdrawals to conserve water and improve
efficiency of water use
• Retain shade along stream channels and protect riparian
integrity
• Remove barriers to passage into thermal refugia
•New impoundments for summer flow management
Habitat Protection Strategies
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Fee simple acquisitions
Conservation easements
Settlement and land management agreements
Habitat conservation plans
Water and land leases
Purchase options and right of first refusal
Purchase and transfer of development rights
Tradable environmental credits
USDA programs
Certification programs
Acquisition and conservation of water rights
Salmon strongholds
Summary
• Climate change will cause significant social and economic
impacts
– Requires multi-disciplinary strategies for effective response
– Multidisciplinary partnerships are needed
• To analyze issues
• To influence legislation
• To implement strategies
• New technology is available address the complex ecosystem
impacts of climate change
– Using this technology will require greater expertise and resources
– Tribes should develop a shared strategy for using new technology