Download Szymczak_India_seminar_abstract DOWNLOAD

ANNEX 1
IMPROVING REGIONAL CAPACITY FOR ASSESSMENT, PLANNING, AND RESPONSE
TO AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCIES
Ron Szymczak1,2*, Cath Hughes1, John Twining1, Ali Arman Lubis3, and Will Glamore4
4
1
ANSTO Marine Systems Analysis Task, PMB 1, Menai, NSW 2234, AUSTRALIA
2
IAEA/RCA Project Lead Country Coordinator
3
Ali Arman Lubis, Center for the Application of Isotopes and Radiation Technology,
National Nuclear Energy Agency, Jakarta, INDONESIA
UNSW Water Research Laboratory, King Street, Manly Vale NSW 2093 AUSTRALIA
The objective of IAEA/RCA Project Improving Regional Capacity for Assessment, Planning and
Responding to Aquatic Environmental Emergencies (RAS/8/095) was to improve the regional capacity
for the management of aquatic environmental risks and to develop capacity in the RCA countries to
assess, plan, and respond to pollution in coastal aquatic environments. Pollutant materials in the
aquatic environment may be derived from natural or anthropogenic sources and may be of
radionuclide, organic or inorganic origin. These pollutants in large bodies of water can be dispersed
by active forces such as wind, tides and currents. The growth of the mining and other industry-related
activities in the Asia and the Pacific region has increased the level of contamination in receiving
waters, leading to reduced populations of the flora and fauna through direct toxic effects, as well as
increasing the concentrations of non-radioactive pollutants in staple aquatic foods. The accumulation
of contaminants in the water, flora, and fauna can impact local communities' sources of food supply
as well as their sources of livelihood.
Environmental managers increasingly understand that elucidation of incident environmental
processes is the key to effective ecosystem management. It is only when the “important” variables
are understood and computationally described that effective ecological risk assessment for and/or
from aquaculture and fisheries activities can be accomplished. Many model packages already exist
which describe and predict specific coastal processes and further refinement of subroutines and userinterfaces has some value, however the truly significant advances lie in the synergistic integration of
different modelling codes. Predictive ecological risk assessment requires bioaccumulation and
trophic transfer models using keystone species (or critical prey-predator groups) identified by models
elucidating trophic structure. These in turn rely on the output from contaminant transport models
predicting contaminant concentrations under a range of environmental scenarios. Integrated
modelling is needed in order to solve the most vexing of scientific and societal problems, e.g. the
impact of human perturbations and/or climate change on water resources and ecological systems.
A primary outcome of this Project was the development and transfer to member States of an
experimentally-field-validated dilution and dispersion model to predict contaminant concentrations
downfield from a specified source. These data were used as input to a quantitative, probabilistic,
ecological risk assessment, based on regionally relevant dose-response data and filtered to reflect
specific environmental foci. The project supported regional training courses on environmental
contaminant analyses, application of radiotracers in contaminant bioaccumulation studies,
contaminant transport and risk analysis modelling, as well as national projects and workshops
through expert missions. Integrated application of modelling and radiotracer tools for predictive
ecological analysis of risk arising from unplanned aquatic pollution events was demonstrated using
Jakarta Bay as an example of a ecologically threatened site.