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AP Statistics Meadowdale High School 2016 - 2017 Instructor: Bill Hummel Office Area: C-Flex Area (C106) Email: [email protected] Tutorial: Room C102 (7:05 – 7:20 every morning!) Office Phone: 425-431-6413 Class Website: http://teacher.edmonds.wednet.edu/mhs/bhummel/index.php Text: The Practice of Statistics; 3rd Edition, Starnes, Yates and Moore Course Description The purpose of the AP course in statistics is to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses. As a result of successfully completing AP Statistics, students will be able to: Apply the principles and methods of data production, data analysis, probability models, and inference appropriately in a variety of contexts, including the AP Statistics exam. Design and carry out a statistical study to answer a research question of interest. Analyze and critique published statistical information, communicate statistical understanding using appropriate terminology; both orally and in writing. What you can expect from me Dynamic, thoughtfully organized lessons that get you involved in learning about and doing statistics Meaningful assignments that blend skills development, application of knowledge, and synthesis of ideas Connections to statistics in the world around us Creation of a respectful, comfortable classroom environment Frequent, candid feedback about your performance, along with suggested strategies for improvement Ongoing support during consultation or other scheduled meeting times What I expect from you Engage in all aspects of the learning process – you will get out of this what you put into it! Take responsibility for your learning and performance Come to class on time, and participate productively for the entire period Seek assistance when needed (this is a challenging course—expect to need help occasionally!) Respect your classmates, your teacher, and yourself College in the High School Under the sponsorship of the Edmonds School District and Edmonds Community College (EdCC), we are pleased to offer an opportunity to participate in the college Math Statistics classes through the College-in-the-High School (CHS) program. The classes will be offered at Meadowdale High School and taught by me during the second semester. Successful completion of the second semester class will result in Edmonds Community College awarding 5 credits in math. Much more to follow….. WHY DO I HAVE TO LEARN THIS????? Let’s just get this out of the way right now. First of all, this class is an elective – math is certainly a requirement, but AP Stats is not. You signed up for this. Second, I don’t know what you’re going to be doing when you’re out there in the real world and you probably don’t either. It is a virtual certainty however, that you’re going to go to work for somebody who’s going to ask you to solve some problems for them and your problem solving skills (if they’re strong) will be a tremendous asset for you. Organizations work with data constantly and your ability to correctly interpret data will be crucial. The most in-demand jobs of today did not exist five years ago. We’re trying to prep you to solve problems that aren’t problems yet and so that you can find jobs that don’t even exist yet. Statistics is practical math that matters. How do I get help? Come to tutorial. I will be in this room EVERY MORNING from 7:05 – 7:20 Make the best use of Achievement Time Use the Hazel Miller Foundation tutoring program at the school Open your book – it is your best resource and the answers are in there Make good use of the on-line resources that are available with this curriculum (more to follow). Required Materials (to be brought to class daily) Something to write with and write on…..paper and pen preferably. TI-83 or TI-84 calculator (crucial), or TI-Inspire. I do not speak TI-89…… Evaluation and Assessment Your grade will be based on math concept work done in class, homework, and scores on tests and quizzes. Rest assured, I will not be ‘giving’ you a grade – you will receive the grade you’ve earned; I just keep score. 80% of your grade will be based on tests, quizzes, AP Practice Exams, and the final exam. The lowest test and quiz score of the semester will be dropped (excluding the final). 20% of your grade will be based on homework, graded assignments, class work and project scores. The following percentages will be used to assign letter grades: 92 – 100 A 80 – 81 B 90 – 91 A 78 – 79 C+ 88 – 89 B+ 72 – 77 C 82 – 87 B 69 – 71 C- 60 – 68 D Below 60 F Attendance and Make-up or Late Work Because much of our time in class is spent on lectures, presentations and discussions, regular attendance is necessary; your participation in these activities cannot be made up and what you miss may very well negatively affect your grade. If you’re absent, you have one day to make up and turn in the assigned work. IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to get the assignments that you’ve missed, either by checking skyward, using the class calendar, coming to tutorial or seeing me after school. If you miss a test or a quiz, you will automatically receive a score of zero and then you must make arrangements with me to make it up either during tutorial, lunch time or after school. You will be taking an alternative assessment (different form). If your absence is unexcused, you will not be allowed to make up the assessment. You have no more than two weeks to make up the assessment – unless you make other arrangements with me. You will be allowed one retake per semester for tests and quizzes – however, the lowest test and quiz score from each semester (excluding the semester final) will be dropped. Homework and any out-of-class assignments are always to be completed by the next class period (unless specifically stated otherwise). I fully realize that real-world issues may arise so please communicate with me if you anticipate trouble turning assignments in on time and together, we’ll try to work something out. Academic Integrity I expect you to be forthright and candid in all of your dealings with me and with your classmates. You can expect the same in return from me. As a member of a learning community, you also have a responsibility to hold those around you to behave honorably. Cheating is wrong and you know it. The first instance of cheating will result in a zero, the second will very likely result in loss of credit for the class. Keep in mind the following simple adage: It is hard to regain lost trust. Tardies Students are expected to be in their classroom seats and be prepared to begin working when the tardy bell rings. After 10 minutes this is considered an absence. For each unexcused tardy, a mandatory tutorial will be assigned to the student. If tardies becomes habitual I will contact parents with a phone call. Next is a referred to their disciplinary administrator. “Early is on time and on time is late.” Chromebook Expectations Students are expected to follow ALL school rules in regard to use of school district issued Chromebooks. Only district approved websites are to be accessed. Teachers, parents and the school district will be allowed to randomly check browsing histories. Please refer to the responsible use guidelines in at the Edmonds School District website. Classroom Expectations It is an absolute requirement that our classroom be a positive, safe place where learning can occur. I feel it’s in your best interest (and in the best interest of your classmates) to display responsibility, proper maturity, common courtesy and respect toward others. Specifically, it is expected that you will: Have respect for and be tolerant of other races, genders, religious beliefs, etc. Follow all the school rules as outlined in the student planner (no cell phones, iPods, hoods off, etc.) Ask questions when you have them (raising your hand of course!) Not criticize or embarrass others. This is a participatory class, which means we will all be sharing thoughts and ideas. It is imperative that it be comfortable and safe for everyone to do so. Not use any recording device (audio and/or video) without prior written consent from me. General Information I have very high expectations of myself and for each of you. I will do my best to help you succeed in this class. Please remember that you have a very important responsibility in regard to your personal academic success – and the person most responsible for that success is you. If you need help, please take the initiative and contact me with the questions and concerns that you have. Let’s have a great year! Student Name: ___________________________________________ Parent Signature: ___________________________________________ (Please read, sign and return – thanks) The Course Week #1; September 7 – September 9th o Learning Targets: Course Introduction Course Syllabus What is statistics? o Activities Counting M&M’s – looking at variability o Homework Problems P1 – P9 o Technology – None o Assessments – None o Resources: “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. Week #2; September 12th – September 16th o Learning Targets: Explore ways to describe data graphically and numerically Learn about bar graphs and pie charts Learn to make stemplots and histograms Examine and describe distributions Learn about relative frequency and cumulative frequency and how to read on ogive Learn to create and interpret a timeplot Learn to describe distributions with numbers Learn about mean and median o Evidence The students will calculate and interpret numerical descriptive statistics such as median and mean. The students will create and interpret graphical statistical displays of the data by making histograms, ogives, stemplots, bar graphs, pie charts and timeplots. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator o Activities Measure your heartbeart o Homework 1.7, 1.9, 1.12, 1.13, 1.15, 1.16, 1.19, 1.23 1.27, 1.29, 1.30, 1.31, 1.32, 1.33, 1.34, 1.37 o Technology Learn about 1 variable stats on the TI-84 Learn to make histograms and time plots on the TI-84 Create dot-plots on using Minitab Introduce and use the Mean and Median Applet Read computer output from Minitab on mean and median o Assessments Chapter P Vocab QUIZ th Week #3; September 19th – September 23th o Learning Targets: Learn to create box plots 5 – number summary 1.5 IQR rule for outliers Standard Deviation Learn to choose a summary Learn about the data analysis toolbox Linear transformations o Evidence Students will become familiar with numerical descriptive statistics including the fivenumber summary, the IQR, mean, median and standard deviation. The students will become proficient using graphical representation of data by using boxplots, stem plots and histograms. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator Mean and median Applet from the website: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e Baseball statistics from the Sporting News o Activities Mean and median applet o Homework 1.39-1.43, 1.45 – 1.49 Section 1.2 exercises 1.51 – 1.57 odds Chapter 1 review Exercises 1.59 – 1.69 odds o Technology Learn to create boxplots on the TI-84 Learn to find the 5-number summary o Assessments Lesson 1.1 / 1.2 QUIZ Week #4; September 26th - September 30th o Learning Targets: Learn how to find a the relative standing of a piece of data (observation) Learn the definition of a z-score and how to calculate a z-score Learn about and use a density curve Enhance your z-score (Table A) skills Learn about the empirical rule o Evidence The students will learn to calculate descriptive statistics like a z-score using the mean and standard deviation of a distribution The students will learn to define and use descriptive statistics like percentile. The students will learn to graphically display the standing of standardized score by creating density curves on their calculators o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. Examine data from Minitab Examine the Normal Curve applet from: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e TI-84 Calculator Baseball data from the sporting news o Activities Roll a normal distribution Special Problem 2A – Exploring Normal distributions o Homework 2.1, 2.3, 2.5 (a-d), 2.7 (a-c), 2.9, 2.10, 2.13, 2.15, 2.16 Normal Distribution Worksheets 2 and 3 o Technology Examine statistical output from Minitab Look at the Normal curve applet o Assessments Unit 1 EXAM Week #5; October 3rd – October 7th o Learning Targets: Learn about Normal Distribution Calculations Learn about and use Normal Probability Plots Learn how to do these problems with your calculator Re-do your worksheets with your calculator o Evidence The students will learn to calculate and describe Normal data using the 68-95-99.7 empirical rule. The students will learn to use tables of values (table A) to compute proportions of observations that fall above or below a z-score. Students will be able to use graphical data such as the Normal Curve to find proportions of observations that fall above or below a z-score. Students will use graphical data such as Normal Probability Plots to help assess the Normality of data o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Fast Track to a 5 – Preparing for the AP Statistics Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton o Activities Roll a normal distribution Special Problem 2A – Exploring Normal distributions o Homework 2.23 – 2.27 odds, 2.31, 2.33, 2.34, 2.35, 2.37, 2.39, 2.43, 2.44, 2.45 Section 2.2 Exercise 2.43 – 2.49 odds Chapter 2 Review Exercises 2.51 – 2.61 odds o Technology Creating Normal probability plots on the TI 84 Using ShadeNorm to find areas under the Normal Curve Using normalcdf on the TI-84 Using InvNorm on the TI-84 o Assessments Unit 2 QUIZ Week #6; October 10th – October 14th o Learning Targets: Examine the relationship between two variables (bivariate data) Construct and interpret scatterplots Make a scatterplot on your calculator Define and calculate correlation o Evidence The students will learn to calculate and interpret numerically descriptive statistics from bivariate data sets such as the correlation coefficient r, and be able to create a linear regression line from bivariate data. The student will learn to display and interpret bivariate data by creating scatterplots and then using regression lines to assess the usefulness of their regression equations. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator “Strive for a 5 – preparing for the AP Stats Exam” – Molesky. Use the correlation and regression applet from: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e o Activities Activity 3A – Case of the missing cookies o Homework 3.1 through 3.7 and 3.9 through 3.11 3.13, 3. 15, 3.17 and 3.19 o Technology Creating scatterplots on the TI-84 Calculate correlation the hard way on the TI-84 Find correlation the easy way on the TI-84 Examine the correlation and Regression applet o Assessments Unit 2 EXAM Week #7; October 17th – October 21st o Learning Targets: Learn about, create and use Least-Squares regression lines Reading regression output from software Learn about and use residuals Learn about residual plots and how to make them Determining exactly how well the line fits the data using r2 o Evidence The students will learn to calculate and interpret numerically descriptive statistics from bivariate data sets such as the residual, and the coefficient of determination r2. The students will become familiar with and interpret graphical representations of bivariate data by creating scatterplots, regression lines and residual plots. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator “Strive for a 5 – preparing for the AP Stats Exam” – Molesky. Use the correlation and regression applet from: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e Examine output from Minitab and Crunchit! o Activities Using the Least Squares Regression Applet o Homework 3.29 – 3.31, 3.33 – 3.35, 3.37-3.38 3.39, 3.41 and 3.42, 3.43, 3.45 Section 3.2 Exercises 3.49 – 3.57 odds o Technology Examine regression results from Minitab and Crunchit! Create Least squares regression lines on the TI-84 o Assessments Unit 3.1 QUIZ Week #8; October 24th – October 28th o Learning Targets: Learn about Correlation and Regression Wisdom Learn about influential points o Evidence The students will learn continue to calculate and interpret numerically descriptive statistics from bivariate data sets such as the residual, and the coefficient of determination r2. The students will continue to become familiar with and interpret graphical representations of bivariate data by creating scatterplots, regression lines and residual plots o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator “Strive for a 5 – preparing for the AP Stats Exam” – Molesky. Use the correlation and regression applet from: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e o Activities Using the Least Squares Regression Applet o Homework 3.59 – 3.62, 3.63, 3.65, 3.66, 3.70, 3.71, 3.73 Section 3.3 Exercises 3.69 – 3.75 Chapter 3 Review Exercises 3.77 – 3.95 odds o Technology o Assessments Unit 3.2 QUIZ Unit 3 EXAM Week #9; October 31st – November 4th o Learning Targets: Distinguish between observational studies and experiments Learn to examine polling data from different sources Look at various types of sampling methods including a Simple Random Sample Learn to use a table of random digits Learn to use your calculator to produce random digits o Evidence Students will examine polling data from a minimum of three different polling sources and examine their for methodology, bias and margins of error Students will learn (with a partner) to plan, justify and carry out a survey using sampling techniques such as using the table of random digits and by using the random number o o o o o generator on the calculator. Students will make an oral presentation to the class on their findings, as well as provide a written report. Students will be able to analyze surveys from Harris.com and Gallup.com for extended learning on random, stratified and cluster sampling as well as analyzing the surveys for various types of bias Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator Websites: www.gallup.com; http://harrispollonline.com/ Activities Class survey Analyzing surveys Homework 5.1 – 5.8 5.9 - 5.11, 5.13, 5.15, 5.17, 5.19 Section 5.1 exercises 5.21 – 5.31 odds Technology Use the Simple Random Sample Applet Create random digits on the TI-84 Assessments 5.1 QUIZ Week #10; November 7th – November 10th o Learning Targets: Learn about the basic principles of experimental design Learn about the vocabulary in regard to experiments Learn about other experimental design methods o Evidence The students will be presented with an experiment as reported in a national publication and will be report on the issues of the experimental design, random sampling and blocking associated with experiment and mechanisms for improving the experiment. Students will (with a partner) design and carry out an appropriate and ethical experiment. Students will make an oral presentation to the class on their findings, as well as provide a written report. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Scientific American” magazine – 2014 New York Times Seattle Times “Statistics, The Art and Science of Learning from Data”, Agresti and Franklin o Activities Activity 5D – eating cookies Special Problem 5B o Homework 5.33, 5.35, 5.37, 5.39, 5.42, 5.43 5.45, 5.47, 5.49, Section 5.2 exercises 5.51 – 5.59 odds o Technology Create random integers on the TI-84 o Assessments 5.1 QUIZ Unit 5 EXAM Week #11; November 14th – November 18th o Learning Targets: Learn how to transform non-linear data into useful regression models Use logarithmic transformations Use Power transformations Learn how to describe relationships between two categorical variables Learn about Simpson’s paradox o Evidence Students will learn to calculate and interpret parameters which transform data in order to achieve linearity Students will learn to graphically display data that is not linear as well as data that has been transformed to achieve linearity Students will also learn to interpret the slope and y-intercept from equations and graphs with the context of a problem o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 Calculator The Sporting News report on salaries in major league baseball “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board “Statistics – Learning From Data”, AP Edition, Peck and Olsen o Activities Activity 4 – modeling the spread of cancer Special problem 4A – Baseball salaries o Homework Problems 4.1 – 4.8 4.9, 4.11 – 4.14 Section 4.1 Exercises 4.15 – 4.21 Section 4.2 Exercises 4.31 – 4.39 odds o Technology Showing exponential growth on the TI-84 Showing power models on the TI-84 Examining 2 by 2 table results on CrunchIt! o Assessments None Week #12; November 21st – November 22nd (Thanksgiving week) o o o o o Learning Targets: Activities Homework Technology Assessments Lesson 4.1 / 4.2 QUIZ Week #13; November 28th – December 2nd o Learning Targets: Identify three ways in which association between two variables can be explained Explain what process provides the best evidence for causation Define the terms common response and confounded variables Learn rules to establish causation o Evidence Students will be able to create, calculate and interpret marginal and conditional distributions from a two-way table Students will be able to calculate counts and express them as percents in describing relationships between categorical variables. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Fast Track to a 5, Preparing for the AP Stats Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities None o Homework Section 4.3 Exercises 4.41 – 4.48 Chapter review exercises 4.49 – 4.57 odds o Technology none o Assessments Unit 4 EXAM Week #14; December 5th – December 9th o Learning Targets: Introduce the concepts of statistical probability Define and use simulation List the 5 steps involved in a simulation Learn to conduct simulations on your calculator Use a simulation to make decisions on hiring discrimination Learn about the language of probability Learn about the mathematical rules of probability Learn about applications of probability rules o Evidence Students will be able to anticipate patterns by exploring the concepts of randomness using probability and simulation. o o o o o Students will be able to simulate random events in a hiring discrimination lawsuit using random integers on their calculators. They will be asked about the probability that a certain number of female pilots will be hired for positions at an airline. Students will be able to simulate the probability of drawing three jacks form a deck of cards for a poker hand. Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator “Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis – 4th Edition”, Peck, Olsen and Devore “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Statistics, The Art and Science of Learning from Data”, Agresti and Franklin Hack-a-shaq free throw applet at : http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e Activities Hiring discrimination activity Special problem 6G – Amarillo Slim Homework 6.1 – 6.12 Section 6.1 Exercises 6.13 - 6.19 (odds) 6.21 – 6.35 (odds) 6-29 – 6.38, 6.41, 6.44 6.45 – 6.49, 6.51 Section 6.2 Exercises 6.53 – 6.61 (odds) Technology Performing simulations with the TI-84 Hack-a-shaq free throw applet Assessments None Week #15; December 12th – December 16th o Learning Targets: Learn about the addition rule for disjoint events Learn about the addition rule for events that are not disjoint Learn about conditional probabilities Learn more about conditional probability o Evidence Students will be able to create probability models for multiple random events. Students will learn to anticipate the patterns of long term randomness and the differences associated with short term randomness Students will be able to create probability models using tree diagrams, relative frequency diagrams and Venn diagrams in order to calculate probabilities o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Statistics – Learning From Data”, AP Edition, Peck and Olsen o Activities Special problem 6G – Amarillo Slim o Homework 6.65-6.69, 6.71 – 6.77 6.79, 6.81-6.86 Section 6.3 Exercises 6.85 – 6.95 (odds) Chapter Review Exercises 6.97 – 6.107 (odds) o Technology none o Assessments Unit 6.1 / 6.2 QUIZ Unit 6.3 QUIZ Week #16; January 3rd – January 6th o Learning Targets: Learn about random variables Learn about discrete random variables Define what is meant by a probability distribution Learn about continuous random variables o Evidence Students will learn to anticipate patterns involving discrete random variables by simulating the dice game CRAPS. Students will learn to create probability distributions for discrete random variables in other casino games. Students will learn to graphically display and interpret a probability distribution using a probability histogram. Students will also learn to anticipate patterns using continuous random variables by completing exercises in the textbook. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky “Fast Track to a 5, Preparing for the AP Stats Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton o Activities We are playing CRAPS!!!! o Homework Problems 7.1-7.10 o Technology Simulate craps on the TI-84 o Assessments Unit 6 EXAM Week #17; January 9th – January 13th o Learning Targets: Define and calculate the mean, variance and standard deviation of a random variable Define the Law of Large Numbers Calculate the mean and variance of two random variables Explain how standard deviations are calculated when combining random variables Learn about the rules for means and variances when combining random variables o Evidence Students will learn to combine independent random variables by performing Activities 7B and 7C and will also learn to calculate the descriptive statistics such as the mean, variance and standard deviation of independent random variables. Students will learn to combine independent random variables and use Normal calculations and Normal distributions to describe the probabilities of independent random events. Students will learn to display graphically probabilities associated with combined random variables using histograms and Normal density curves. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky o Activities Activity 7B – means of random variables Activity 7C – Combining random variables o Homework 7.1-7.10 7.23 – 7.27, 7.33 – 7.35, 7.37, 7.38, 7.39, Section 7.2 Review Exercises 7.43 – 7.51 odds Chapter Review Exercises 7.53 – 7.63 odds o Technology Using the TI-84 for Normal probability calculations o Assessments Unit 7.1 QUIZ Unit 7.2 QUIZ Unit 7 EXAM Week #18; January 16th – January 20th o Learning Targets: Describe the conditions that need to be present in a binomial setting Define a binomial distribution Learn to calculate a binomial coefficient Learn to calculate a binomial probability Finding binomial probabilities with your calculator Calculate Binomial mean and St. Dev. Use the Normal Approximation for binomial distributions Define the Geometric Distribution and the setting for a geometric distribution Calculate mean and St. Dev. Of a geometric random variable Use the Normal Approximation for binomial distributions o Evidence Students will learn to recognize and describe the conditions that need to be present in a binomial setting by doing activity 8A and assignments from the textbook. Student will be able to calculate and interpret probabilities from binomial settings using the binomial formula. Students will be able to calculate, use and interpret descriptive statistics like the mean and standard deviation of binomial random variables. Students will learn to recognize and describe the conditions for a geometric setting and will be able to calculate and interpret probabilities from geometric settings. Students will be able to calculate, use and interpret descriptive statistics like the mean and standard deviation of random variables in a geometric setting. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator “Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis – 4th Edition”, Peck, Olsen and Devore “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky o Activities Activity 8A – the quiz nightmare o Homework 8.1 through 8.12 8.13 through 8.16, 8.19, 8.21 Section 8.1 Review Exercises 8.31 – 8.39 odds 8.45 – 8.49 Section 8.2 Review Exercises 8.51 – 8.57 odds Chapter 8 review exercises 8.59 – 8.67 o Technology Calculate binomial pdf’s and cdf’s on the TI-84 Calculate geometric pdf’s and cdf’s on the TI-84 Create binomial and geometric histograms on the TI-84 Use the TI-84 to simulate geometric situations o Assessments Unit 8.1 QUIZ Week #19; January 23rd – January 26th o Learning Targets: o Activities o Homework o Technology o Assessments Semester 1 Final Exam Week #20; January 30th – February 3rd o Learning Targets: Compare and contrast the terms parameter and statistic Define what is meant by sampling variability Define what is meant by sampling distribution of a statistic Learn to describe the distribution of a sample Learn about the bias of a statistic Learn about the Variability of a statistic Compute mean and standard deviation of a sampling distribution Use normal approximations for sampling distributions Sample Means and the Central Limit theorem o Evidence Students will be able to define and use sampling variability and be able to distinguish between a parameter and a statistic. Students will be able to describe and interpret the sampling distribution of a statistic and be able to describe the variability of a statistic. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities Young women’s heights Sampling Pennies o Homework Problems 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5, 9.7 – 9.17 odds 9-19 – 9.29 odds 9.35 – 9.45 odds Chapter 9 review exercises 9.47 – 9.57 odds o Technology Using the TI-84 for normal approximations of sample distributions o Assessments 9.1 QUIZ Week #21; February 6th – February 10th o Learning Targets: Explain what is meant by statistical inference Explain how probability is used to make decisions in regard to inference Introduce the confidence interval toolbox o Evidence Students will be introduced to the concept of statistical inference and how it is used to make conclusions about a larger population. Students will learn to create confidence intervals for a population mean from examples in the text and homework problems in the text. Student will learn to apply the conditions necessary to create a confidence interval and will learn to list the four necessary steps in the creation of a confidence interval by using the Inference Toolbox Students will also learn to interpret confidence intervals within the context of the particular problem through numerous examples and homework assignments from the text and other resources. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for calculating z-intervals) “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Statistics – Learning From Data”, AP Edition, Peck and Olsen Confidence Interval applet at www.freeman.com/tps3e o Activities Counting words in books Confidence interval applet o Homework Problems 10.1 – 10.5, 10.7 – 10.11 odds, 10.13, 10.15 -10.16 o Technology Use the TI-84 for z-intervals o Assessments 9.2 QUIZ Unit 9 EXAM Week #22; February 13th – February 17th o Learning Targets: Learn about t distributions Learn to construct one-sample t confidence intervals Learn about paired t procedures Learn how to estimate a population proportion o Evidence Students will learn to construct one-sample t confidence intervals for a population mean by doing examples in the text and from homework problems in the text. Student will continue to learn to apply the conditions necessary to create a confidence interval and will continue to learn to list the four necessary steps in the creation of a confidence interval by using the Inference Toolbox o o o o o Students will also continue to learn to interpret one sample t confidence intervals within the context of the particular problem through numerous examples and homework assignments from the text and other resources. Students will learn to create a confidence interval for a population proportion by doing the Hershey’s Kiss activity in the text and from example problems and homework problems in the text and other resources. Students will learn to identify the conditions necessary to create a confidence interval for a proportion Students will learn to be able to create a sample size for any desired margin of error. Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for calculating t-intervals and one proportion z-intervals) “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Statistics – Learning From Data”, AP Edition, Peck and Olsen “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky Activities Hershey’s kiss activity Homework 10-27 thru 10-29, 10.31 10.51 – 10.61 odds Chapter 10 exercises 10.65 – 10.73 Technology Using the TI-84 for t-intervals Assessments 10.1 Quiz 10.2 Quiz Week #23; February 20th – February 24th o Learning Targets: Learn about significance tests Define null and alternative hypothesis Define P-Value Define significance level and statistical significance o Evidence Students will be introduced to the concept of significant testing and hypothesis testing. The introduction will come from Activity 11A in the text and having the students draw cards from a deck of only red cards. The concept will be reinforced with activity 11B in the text – testing the claim that the free-throw shooter is an 80% shooter. Students will learn to write and interpret a null and alternative hypothesis. Students will learn to identify the conditions necessary for doing a significance test. Students will be introduced to and asked to interpret p-values, significance levels and statistical significance through example problems and homework problems in the text and other resources. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis – 4th Edition”, Peck, Olsen and Devore o Activities Drawing cards from a deck o Homework Problems 11.1, 11.3, 11.5, 11.7, 11.9, 11.11, 11.13, 11.15 11.19 – 11.23 o Technology Free throw shooter applet o Assessments Unit 10 EXAM Week #24; February 27th – March 3rd o Learning Targets: Identify and explain the 4 steps in formal hypothesis testing Conduct a z-test for a population mean Conduct a two-sided significance test for using a confidence interval Distinguish between statistical significance and practicality Identify the advantage and disadvantage of using P-Values o Evidence Students will be able to explain, identify and interpret the four steps for formal hypothesis testing using the Inference Toolbox from the text. Students will learn to conduct a z-test for a population mean from examples and homework problems in the text and other resources. Students will learn to conduct two-sided significance tests from examples and homework problems in the text and other resources. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis – 4th Edition”, Peck, Olsen and Devore “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities None o Homework Problems 11.1, 11.3, 11.5, 11.7, 11.9, 11.11, 11.13, 11.15 11.19 – 11.23, 11.27, 11.28, 11.35, 11.37 11.43 – 11.48 o Technology Use the TI-84 to perform z-tests o Assessments 11.1 QUIZ 11.2 / 11.3 QUIZ Week #25; March 6th – March 10th o Learning Targets: Define what is meant by a Type I error Define what is meant by a Type II error Describe the consequences of errors Describe the relationship between significance and a Type I error Define the Power of a Test o Evidence Students will be able to define and interpret the differences between statistical significance and practical importance. The students will be able to describe and interpret the use of p-values rather than a fixed level of significance through examples in homework problems in the text and other resources. Students will be able to define, identify and interpret within the context of the problem what a Type I and a Type II error is and be able to explain the consequences of each. Students will learn to define and interpret the Power of a test, how to increase the power and why a larger value for power is a good thing. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore “Introduction to Statistics & Data Analysis – 4th Edition”, Peck, Olsen and Devore “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein POWER Applet at www.whfreeman.com/tps3e “Prep for the AP Exam Guide for The Practice of Statistics – 4th Edition”, Legacy o Activities Using the POWER applet o Homework Problems 11.53 – 11.57 odds Chapter 11 Review exercises, 11.59 – 11.73 odds o Technology Using the POWER Applet o Assessments Unit 11 EXAM Week #26; March 13th – March 17th o Learning Targets: Define a one-sample t-statistic Define critical values of t (t*) from a “t table” Determine a P-Value of a t-statistic Learn to conduct a one-sample t significance test for a population mean Conduct a paired t-test Conduct a significance test for a population proportion Discuss how significance tests and confidence intervals can be used together to draw conclusions Use your calculator to do a one-proportion z test o Evidence Students will be introduced to and will be able to define and interpret the one-sample tstatistic for tests about the mean of a population. The introduction will come in activity 12 in the text about one side of a coin being heavier than the other. Students will learn to conduct and interpret one-sample t significance tests for a population mean (using the inference toolbox) by doing examples and homework problems from the text as well as other resources. Students will also learn to conduct and interpret a paired t-test for the difference between two population means (using the inference toolbox) by doing examples and homework problems from the text as well as other resources. Students will examine and interpret the results of t-procedures by examining output from statistical software packages. Students will learn to conduct and interpret significance tests for a population proportion (using the inference toolbox) by doing examples and homework problems from the text as well as other resources. Students will also learn to conduct and interpret a significance tests for the difference between two population proportions (using the inference toolbox) by doing examples and homework problems from the text as well as other resources. Students will also be able to synthesize information and be able to explain how hypothesis testing and confidence intervals can be used together to help draw conclusions about a population proportion. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. “Statistics through Applications – 2nd Edition”, Starnes, Yates and Moore TI-84 calculator (for conducting t-tests and one proportion z tests) “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board “AP Statistics Workshop Handbook 2011-2012”, The College Board “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities Stand up pennies and knock them down o Homework Problems 12.1 – 12.7, 12.11 – 12.21 odds, 12-23 – 12,27 odds Unit 12 Review exercises 12.31-12.37 o Technology Examine statistical output of one-sample t-tests Use the TI-84 to perform t-tests Use the TI-84 to do one-proportion z-tests o Assessments 12.1 / 12.2 QUIZ Week #27; March 20th – March 24th o Learning Targets: Define two-sample problems Clarify the difference between the two-sample z-statistic and the two-sample tstatistic Conduct a two-sample significance test between two independent means using the inference toolbox o Evidence Students will learn to construct and interpret a confidence interval for the difference between two population means and also be able to construct and interpret significance tests for the difference between two population means. Students will learn this by doing example problems and homework problems in the text as well as with other resources. Students will learn to identify and describe the three conditions necessary for doing inference for two population means. Students will also learn to examine and interpret output from statistical software as it relates to 2 sample t-tests. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for doing 2 sample T Tests) “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board Fast Track to a 5, Preparing for the AP Stats Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities Paper Airplane experiment o Homework Problems 13.1 – 13.6, 13.7 – 13.11 odds 13.17 – 13.23 odds o Technology Examine statistical output of two-sample t-tests Use the TI-84 to perform two-sample t-tests o Assessments Unit 12 EXAM Week #28; March 27th – March 31st o Learning Targets: Learn to use the two-sample z procedure to give a confidence interval for the difference between proportions in two populations Use a two-proportion z test to test the hypothesis H0: p1 = p2 Check to see that you can use these procedures in a particular setting o Evidence Students will learn to construct and interpret a confidence interval for the difference between two population proportions and also be able to construct and interpret tests of significance for the difference between two population proportions. Students will be able to define and identify the three conditions which must be present for a confidence interval for the difference of two population proportions Students will be able to calculate and interpret descriptive statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, and standard error of the difference between two population proportions. Students will also learn to examine and interpret output from statistical software as it relates to 2 proportion z-tests. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for doing 2 proportion Z Tests) “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities None o Homework Problems 13.25, 13.27 13.29 – 13.39 odds Chapter 13 review exercises 13.41 – 13.49 odds o Technology Examine statistical output of two-sample z-tests Use the TI-84 to perform two-sample z-tests o Assessments 13.1 / 13.2 QUIZ Week #29; April 3rd – April 7th - No School; Spring Break Week #30; April 10th – April 14th o Learning Targets: Describe the situation for which the chi-square test for goodness of fit is appropriate List the conditions that need to be satisfied in order to conduct a chi-square test Use a calculator to conduct a chi-square test o Evidence Students will be introduced to and be able to define and interpret a chi-square goodness of fit test. The introduction will come from Activity 14A, counting and eating M&M’s and being able to find observed and expected values of M&M’s in a bag. Students will learn to identify and describe the conditions for which the chi-square test for goodness of fit is appropriate. Students will learn to create and interpret chi-square density curves using their calculators and be able to calculate and interpret goodness of fit tests using their calculators. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for doing goodness of fit tests) “Stats – Modeling the World”, AP Edition, Bock, Velleman and De Veaux o Activities More M & M’s o Homework Problems 14.1 – 14.10 o Technology Use the TI-84 to conduct a chi-square test o Assessments Unit 13 EXAM Week #31; April 17th – April 21st o Learning Targets: Learn about inference for two-way tables Compare two or more population proportions using a chi-square test for homogeneity of populations Learn about the chi-square test of association/independence o Evidence Students will be able to conduct and interpret a chi-square test for the homogeneity of populations, and a chi-square test for association and independence by doing example problems and homework problems from the text and other resources. Students will learn to identify, define and interpret two-way tables. Students will be able to distinguish between homogeneity of populations and independence. Students will be able to identify and interpret the form of the null hypothesis of the chisquare tests for homogeneity of populations and independence. Students be able to use their calculators to calculate and interpret a chi-square test of significance for a two-way table. Students will also learn to examine and interpret output from statistical software as it relates to chi-square tests. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for doing chi-square tests) “Prep for the AP Exam Guide for The Practice of Statistics – 4th Edition”, Legacy “Barron’s AP Statistics” – 7th Edition, Sternstein o Activities none o Homework HW problems 14.11, 14.13 14.15 – 14.17; 14.21 – 14.43 odds o Technology Use the TI-84 to conduct a chi-square test Examine chi-square tests on Minitab o Assessments 14.1 / 14.2 QUIZ Week #32; April 24th – April 28th o Learning Targets: Use the linear regression t-test on your calculator Find the standard error (SD) of the line Create a confidence interval for the regression line o Evidence Students will learn identify the conditions necessary to do inference testing for the slope of a regression line. Students will be able to construct and interpret confidence intervals for the slope of a regression line by doing example and homework problems from the text and other resources. Students will be able to construct and interpret hypothesis tests for the slope of a regression line by doing example and homework problems from the text and other resources. Students will learn to use their calculators to calculate and interpret a linear regression ttest. o Resources “The Practice of Statistics – 3rd Edition”, Yates, Moore and Starnes. TI-84 calculator (for doing linear regression t-tests) o Activities none o Homework Problems 15.1 – 15.25 o Technology Use the TI-84 to conduct Linear regression t-tests o Assessments Unit 14 EXAM Unit 15 QUIZ Week #33; May 1st – May 5th o Learning Targets: AP Statistics EXAM Review o Resources “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky “Prep for the AP Exam Guide for The Practice of Statistics – 4th Edition”, Legacy “Fast Track to a 5, Preparing for the AP Stats Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board “AP Statistics Workshop Handbook 2011-2012”, The College Board o Activities o Homework o Technology o Assessments Unit 15 EXAM Week #34; May 8th – May 12th o Learning Targets: AP Statistics EXAM Review o Resources “Strive for a 5 – Preparing for the AP Stats Exam”, Molesky “Prep for the AP Exam Guide for The Practice of Statistics – 4th Edition”, Legacy “Fast Track to a 5, Preparing for the AP Stats Exam for Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis”, Hathaway, Greenberg and Moulton “AP Summer Institute Exam Materials 2012 AP Statistics”, The College Board “AP Statistics Workshop Handbook 2011-2012”, The College Board o Activities o Homework o Technology o Assessments Week #34 – week #36; May 12th – May 23rd o Learning Targets: Year – end statistical project Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) methods o Evidence Students will learn methods to compare several groups according to their means on a quantitative response variable. o Resources “Statistics, The Art and Science of Learning from Data”, Agresti and Franklin o Activities o Homework o Technology o Assessments Week #37 – week #40; May 26th – June 11th o Learning Targets: Year – end statistical project o Evidence Students (in pairs or groups of three) will conduct a statistical project using the techniques covered in this course. The project is to draw from all four aspects of the course (exploring data, sampling and/or experimentation, anticipating patterns, and statistical inference). The project needs to demonstrate an understanding of the overall process of quantitative research. The students will provide a written report and will also make a relatively brief oral presentation of their findings. The project must include: A clear method of the sampling procedure used A clear method of how data will be measured or collected A list of assumptions or an anticipation of confounding or lurking variables including any issues of bias in their project A suggestion of the statistical analysis that the students intend to use The actual statistical analysis used An interpretation of the results within the context of the problem A written formal report