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Slide 1
Slide 1

... these climate feedbacks, both historically and in the future? 3. What are the primary unknowns in obtaining a better understanding of these feedbacks, and what role can earth system models play in helping us better understand these feedback? ...
Klimaschankungen seit 1700.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700.

... In those dry years around 1830 and 1860 shipping problems increased and soon a lot of speculation began about the possible cause of the lower river-water levels. In most cases the increasing practice of deforestation was found to be the source. Now we know better: it is because of climatic changes. ...
Variability and Triggering Factors of Observed Global Mean Land
Variability and Triggering Factors of Observed Global Mean Land

... mean temperature variations mainly reflect extra-tropical temperature variability. On the other hand high precipitation variability happens to occur due to local convection cells mainly within the tropics. Thus it may be possible that global mean land-surface precipitation mainly probes a different ...
Dangerous human-made interference with climate
Dangerous human-made interference with climate

... Introduction ...
PEG - DocumentCloud
PEG - DocumentCloud

... ABOUT 4.4% PER YEAR. WHEN THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE WAS FIRST IDENTIFIED IN THE MID 1970S, THAT RATE WAS EXTRAPOLATED TO PROJECT ATMO ¬ SPHERIC C02 LEVELS WOULD DOUBLE EARLY IN THE NEXT CENTURY, SAY 2025. HOWEVER , THE RE ¬ DUCED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS SINCE THEN, CAUSED FORECASTS OF DOUBLING TO MOVE OUT BY ...
Federated States of Micronesia - Pacific Climate Change Science
Federated States of Micronesia - Pacific Climate Change Science

... per year since 1993. This is larger than the global average of 0.11– 0.14 inches (2.8–3.6 mm) per year. This higher rate of rise may be partly related to natural fluctuations that take place year to year or decade to decade caused by phenomena such as the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation. This year-to-ye ...
The Climate counter consensus, review - Brians
The Climate counter consensus, review - Brians

... glaciers are shrinking quickly. Particular examples on their own are not significant but when looked  at in aggregate provide significant evidence indicating that he planet is warming 42 .   ...
- adaptation
- adaptation

... General Circulation Model (GCM) A computer-generated mathematical model of the general circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere or ocean used to predict potential impacts of climate change. Regional climate models (RCM) Similar to global climate models, but of higher resolution and better able to predi ...
2. Global climate change
2. Global climate change

... of UKCIP will then be outlined and key findings from the application of the UKCIP98 scenarios in UKCIP studies will be summarised. The UKCIP98 scenarios comprise four scenarios (low, medium-low, medium-high, high) for three 30-year times slices centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Collectively the ...
Slide 1
Slide 1

... less developed countries, or in remote regions. C. Climate change will significantly affect many countries. D. The effects of climate change will be catastrophic around the world. ...
Winter 2010
Winter 2010

the journal Nature Climate Change
the journal Nature Climate Change

... of ocean–atmosphere interaction. Ultimately, the coupled SSTcirculation uncertainty originates from parameterized physics such as convection, land surface processes and aerosol effects. ...
Cross-chapter box on the active role of vegetation in altering water
Cross-chapter box on the active role of vegetation in altering water

... It is uncertain how vegetation responses to future increases in CO2 and to climate change will modulate the impacts of climate change on freshwater flows. Twenty-first century continental- and basin-scale runoff is projected by some models to either increase more or decrease less when the physiologi ...
Global Climate Change and National Security
Global Climate Change and National Security

Policymaker Summary
Policymaker Summary

... There are other human activities which have the p o t e n t i a l to affect c l i m a t e . A c h a n g e in the a l b e d o (reflectivity) of the land, brought about by desertification or deforestation affects the amount of solar energy absorbed at the Earth's surface. Human-made aerosols, from sul ...
East Africa Climate Impacts
East Africa Climate Impacts

... (Hansen et al., 2006), in large part because of human activities (IPCC, 2001). A recent report produced by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences confirms that the last few decades of the 20th century were in fact the warmest in the past 400 years (National Research Council, 2006). The Intergovernmen ...
PDF
PDF

What controls polar stratospheric temperature trends?
What controls polar stratospheric temperature trends?

... to the trend has a maximum warming of 0.63 K/decade in The radiative contributions to the trends (Fig.7) have large October, and is positive from May through November, as cooling in the SH spring and early summer related to the ...
An Introduction to Climate Change in Taiwan
An Introduction to Climate Change in Taiwan

... Taiwan Normal University The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) in 2007, which discussed climate change in the last 100 years and the possible impact of continuous warming over the next 100 years. The report indicated that, in the last ...
Information Note
Information Note

... provide detailed information on the types of proposals being sought. Each proposal must be submitted separately, indicating the day for which it is proposed. Proposals will be evaluated based on: (1) relevance to the themes of the conference, (2) likely interest in the topic, and (3) engaging format ...
5.6.2 Water temperature
5.6.2 Water temperature

Changing probabilities of daily temperature extremes in the UK
Changing probabilities of daily temperature extremes in the UK

... parameter. In order to include the effects of the climate change scenarios considered, the mean of this distribution is increased by the scenario change in temperature. This implies changes to both a and P, which have implications for the variance of this distribution (defi.ned as a p 2 ) .To pertur ...
problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature
problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature

... et al.; 1996; D. Ojima, unpublished report, 1997; Quintana-Gomez, 1999). Regional managers of public lands are concerned about the ability of native plants and animals to adapt to rapidly changing climates along with other stresses such as habitat loss, invasive exotic species, air and water polluti ...
- Wiley Online Library
- Wiley Online Library

... et al.; 1996; D. Ojima, unpublished report, 1997; Quintana-Gomez, 1999). Regional managers of public lands are concerned about the ability of native plants and animals to adapt to rapidly changing climates along with other stresses such as habitat loss, invasive exotic species, air and water polluti ...
slide showing 30 new emerging disease and then
slide showing 30 new emerging disease and then

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Global warming hiatus



A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.
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