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The atmospheric water cycle How will it change in a
The atmospheric water cycle How will it change in a

... Why do we see a reduced number of tropical cyclones in a warmer climate? •  We suggest the following mechanism •  There is a reduction in the large-scale tropical circulation at climate warming due to increased static stability and a rapid increase in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. •  ...
A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate
A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate

... basis for explaining their existence. Investigators commonly attribute their subsistence to the presence of ‘microclimates,’ and implicit assumption that spatial variation in climate can support microrefugia. Beyond this assumption, there is little explicit understanding of the climatic processes th ...
California rainfall is becoming greater, with heavier storms
California rainfall is becoming greater, with heavier storms

Objectives and expected outcomes - Climate Services for Disaster
Objectives and expected outcomes - Climate Services for Disaster

... Exchange on products for Climate Services for DRR developed by ACMAD-MESA Interpret products and provide: -Technical Notes for forecasts discussions or briefings; -Bulletins and Reports for climate sensitive sector ( agriculture, water, DRR, experts…) - Statements&Briefs for policy and decision mak ...
19. Global change
19. Global change

... carbon dioxide. Other gases that are present in smaller concentrations will remain in the atmosphere longer than carbon dioxide exaggerating their potential for warming. It is increasingly clear that we can't turn the clock back to a time prior to the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse ...
Rapid Climate Change Science Plan
Rapid Climate Change Science Plan

... Europe than would otherwise be the case (Manabe and Souffer 1988, Schiller et al. 1997, Vellinga and Wood 2001, Seager et al. 2001). The THC consists of deep convection induced by surface cooling at high latitudes, sinking to depth, and upwelling of deep waters at lower latitudes, with horizontal s ...
Public Understanding of Science - Penelope Ironstone
Public Understanding of Science - Penelope Ironstone

5.Temperature stress and plant sexual reproduction
5.Temperature stress and plant sexual reproduction

... some evidence points to the reproductive phase as a potentially sensitive stage. High temperatures are likely to shorten the growing cycle of many crop species and, during some developmental stages, such as the reproductive phase, most crops are only able to tolerate narrow temperature changes, whic ...
Sea Level Change - Imperial College London
Sea Level Change - Imperial College London

... Has this happened previously? Sea level has changed naturally over glacial-interglacial cycles, mostly as a consequence of the growth and decay of large ice sheets paced by changes in incoming solar radiation as a consequence of well-understood periodic variations in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun ...
Comments on “A Unified
Comments on “A Unified

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems
Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

... Humans influence climate primarily through fossil-fuel, industrial, agricultural, and other landuse emissions that alter atmospheric composition. Long-lived, heat-trapping greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, tropospheric ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons) warm the planet’s surface globally, whereas short ...
the interaction between Global Climate Change AND Tropical Forest
the interaction between Global Climate Change AND Tropical Forest

... Climate is one of the primary constraints on species distributions and ecosystem function and Ecologists are faced with the challenge of forecasting species range shifts, extinction risks, biome shifts, altered disturbance regimes, biogeochemical cycling, and other ecological responses to climate ch ...
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge
Neelin, 2011. Climate Change and Climate Modeling, Cambridge

...  Thousands of scientists on a voluntary basis. Working Group I: Physical Science Basis of Climate Change; Working Group II: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (socio-economic and natural systems, negative and positive consequences, options for adaptation); Working Group III: Mi ...
File - Climatelinks
File - Climatelinks

... food. Mixed rainfed and highland perennial systems in the Great Lakes region and other parts of Eastern Africa are expected to be severely affected by climate change, with increased variability and warmer temperatures of greatest concern, resulting in crop yield declines for these areas. A recent st ...
Legacy of disasters - Save the Children UK
Legacy of disasters - Save the Children UK

Four out of five SMEs fear impact of climate change on their
Four out of five SMEs fear impact of climate change on their

... Over a third (34%) of SMEs in Asia Pacific also reported droughts and heat as likely to have the biggest potential impact on their businesses. That was in contrast to the concerns among SMEs in other regions, where respondents were more worried about events related to increased precipitation. Cecili ...
Extreme Weather Events
Extreme Weather Events

... complexities, intricacies, and nuances associated with a multifaceted subject that spans several academic disciplines, yet they have been effectively used to communicate a desired message and to shape both public opinion and policy. The term “global warming” originated from computer model studies co ...
Risks from Climate Feedbacks
Risks from Climate Feedbacks

... between components of the climate system can either increase the rate of global warming, or decrease the rate of global warming. A climate feedback is a change to a component of the climate system that causes a knock-on effect which further alters the original change.  An amplifying feedback (also ...
Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences

Global warming in the public sphere
Global warming in the public sphere

... century, the basic physical science underlying the theory and empirical evidence for global warming was supported through wartime and post-World War II scientific enterprise to master nuclear weaponry and understand how nuclear radiation and fallout would travel throughout the atmosphere and terrestr ...
Climate change and human health: Indian context
Climate change and human health: Indian context

... is still lacking. Inroad of JE into Delhi is also a matter of investigation to define the ecological/climatic and sociological changes which led to introduction of JE in Delhi. Modern approach using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System is required to map the ecological and environmenta ...
The Science of Climate Change, Questions and Answers
The Science of Climate Change, Questions and Answers

... as mature within the framework required to discuss climate. It is at this intersection of the disciplines where uncertainty can and will arise, both because of the yet poorly understood feedbacks between the different components of the climate system and because of the difficulty of bringing these c ...
Keith Brander
Keith Brander

... Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) etc.). Some of the climate variables shown in Table 1 are conservative and do not vary much geographically, seasonally or interannually (e.g. salinity), but most vary a good d ...
Climate Scientists and the Consensus on Climate Change
Climate Scientists and the Consensus on Climate Change

Fine-grain modeling of species` response to climate change
Fine-grain modeling of species` response to climate change

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Global warming hiatus



A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.
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