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Download Steve Goreham – Energy, Climate Change and Public Policy
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Steve Goreham – Energy, Climate Change and Public Policy: I. Introduction Although wages and commodity prices increased since 1910, electricity remains at 11¢/kWh now – about the same as back then Since 1910 we experienced a golden age of low cost energy which drove global prosperity worldwide – we are in an age of electricity and growth will continue here and worldwide out to 2040 (US has a lower growth rate than world). II. Climatism Energy use has come to be viewed as “bad” due to criticisms by Amory Lovins, Al Gore, Gar Smith, Paul Ehrlich, Steven Chu and David Goodstein – issues of climate and resource adequacy (running out); even utilities scold customers for inefficiency compared to neighbors and urge them to beat the “energy bandit” (Commonwealth Ed) Alarmists such as Al Gore, Bill Richardson and Chris Christie convinced the public that humans are causing dangerous global warming, but empirical evidence is lacking that greenhouse gases drive warming; Goreham calls the alarmism “climatism”. Some of the illustrations to illustrate the minor role of man-made CO2: temperature records for Chicago 1872-2008; CO2 being a trace gas in the complex climate system (.04% of atmosphere; human cause is less than 25% of that; water vapor is most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG); all GHGs are 1-2% of atmosphere; humans contribute 1% to overall greenhouse effect; actual measured temperature change since early 1990s is far below numerous IPCC model predictions Discussion of past climate variations before the industrial age: medieval warm period (900-1300 AD), little ice age (1300-1850 AD) and earlier warm periods (Holocene and Roman optimums) – climate change due to natural cycles driven by the sun with GHGs playing a minor role Claims of increased extreme weather due to climate change are not supported by frequency and intensity records for tropical storms US energy usage grew 21% since 1980 – at a time when 6 major pollutants declined 57% (CO, NOx, SOx, lead, ozone, particulates) CO2 is not a “pollutant” like the other gases – it is exhaled by humans, supports plant growth, and is essential to oxygen production through photosynthesis III. Abundant Resources Earth is not running out of oil and gas despite “peak oil” concerns of some – the shale revolution occurred due to innovation and productivity in “manufacturing” oil and gas in shale basins IV. Policy Measures Worldwide public policy has been to adopt climate legislation US electricity markets are distorted by wind subsidies allowing bids at negative prices, putting pressure on base load nuclear (Exelon) EPA’s clean power plan to raise prices and shrink grid margin – but EPA concedes it won’t affect climate (by itself) Possible favorable reactions: green energy socks decline, failing carbon trading markets, drop in renewable growth, states (WV, NC, OH, KN) pushing back on RPS laws Policy recommendations: end climatism, challenge the alleged consensus, encourage debate, let renewables compete – oppose mandates, promoting renewables, carbon pricing, emissions regulation, feed in tariffs, renewable subsidies and mandates, demand control, transportation biofuels European wholesale prices for electricity are now determined by weather (sun, wind) not market demand Germany – solar capacity factor 9.5% in 2013 – 6% of electric production with $400B subsidy support Denmark – 5,000 wind towers cover the nation with average output of 1.2 GW – equivalent to 1 large conventional plant with small footprint England – conversion of ½ Drax coal plant to wood imported from US cost $1.1B and doubled electricity costs Spain – solar subsidies led to fraudulent reporting of night-time conventional generation as solar in 2009-10 European results, generally: R prices 20-30¢/kWh; traditional utilities losing money and reluctant to invest; industrial costs rising (France, Germany) compared to US and China, shale gas energy giving US industrial advantage in plastics; result is slashing renewable subsidies, bankruptcies, layoffs and cancelled projects The European experience is starting to happen in the US; e.g. California Valley Solar Ranch electricity cost 15-18¢/kWh Combined wind and fossil power production leads to more CO2 and pollutants as fossil units are forced to in efficient “stop and go” mode of operation