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Progress since Helsinki
Tom Holt
Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Prague, November, 2007
Summary
• Not much time spent on WP6.2
– Work on DeSurvey
– Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs
• RT8
– Public participation in science Web site
– Stakeholders
• RT4
– Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes
• WP6.2
– D6.8 report submitted
DeSurvey
• Data may be of use in WP6.2
– ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean
• Standard variables
• 6-hourly
• 1958-2002
– Downscaling to 1 km resolution
• Weighted by topography
• Spain/Portugal, Italy, Greece, Tunisia
• Based on above ERA-40 data
– HadRM3 control and A2a to follow
D6.8 Report
Summary of contents
1) Effects of climate change on Health, Heat Stress, Wind
Storm, Flood, and Return Levels (UEA) NB This part was
presented in the report on D6.2 (page 3)
2) Effects of climate change on Mediterranean Agriculture
(UEA) (pages 4-15)
3) A Heat Index for Heat Stress studies (NOA) (pages 16-21)
4) A Storm Damage Regression Model (FUB) (pages 22-30)
5) Forest damage in a changing climate (LU) (pages 31-36)
6) Some remarks on Uncertainty (UEA) (page 37)
Plus late contribution from Ari Venäläinen:
based on his extremes work in Finland – my fault I should have
asked his group to become involved – welcome aboard Ari et al.!
Marco – anything on forest fires for the next phase?
nothing on flood yet (PAS), I’ll do something on this year’s UK flood
New Extremes Deliverable
• Essentially
– Running the impacts models using ENSEMBLES
RCM extremes
– Assessing uncertainty
– Reporting results
– By month 48
• Paper
– An amalgam of the reports
– Volunteers for sub-editors (2 or 3)? I’ll do the first draft
and we’ll take it from there – bloody but effective!
– Should be a hard-hitting quantitative summary of
effects on people’s lives.