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Human Health Effects: Particulate Matter and Climate Change Deborah M. Drechsler, Ph.D. Research Division, California Air Resources Board October 29, 2007 California Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency Overview • Recent research on the effects of particulate matter air pollution on cardiovascular health • Projections of public health impacts from climate change: scenario analysis in California Evidence for PM - Related Health Effects • Long-term PM10 and PM2.5 exposure significantly associated with – All-cause premature death • Greatest risk for premature death due to cardiovascular causes – – – – Heart attack Congestive heart failure Stroke Ischemic heart disease • Greater association for PM2.5 than for PM10 What About Short-Term Exposure to PM2.5? • Increased risk of premature death, especially for cardiovascular causes: – Heart attack – Congestive heart failure – Ischemic heart disease • Risk of premature death lower than for long-term exposure What About Non-Fatal Cardiovascular Effects? • Daily exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 associated with hospitalization for chronic disease – Greatest association for heart-related causes – Greatest effect in people with more severe disease • Effect greater for PM2.5 than PM10 What Populations Have the Highest Risk? • Older adults with chronic heart disease • The obese • Diabetics • Possibly women What Characteristics Do These Groups Have In Common? • Systemic inflammation has been reported in • People with heart disease • The obese • Diabetics – Evidence from panel and experimental studies shows at baseline and with PM2.5 exposure • Increased blood markers of inflammation • Changes in blood coagulability factors New Findings on Influence of PM2.5 on Cardiovascular Disease • Several recent studies suggest – Women may be at greater risk of adverse cardiovascular effects than men – Chronic exposure to PM2.5 may influence development and progression of atherosclorosis Conclusions: PM and Cardiovascular Disease • PM2.5 is associated with increased risk of – Premature death – Hospitalization for worsening of chronic disease • Risk is greatest for heart-related causes • PM2.5 may influence the development and progression of heart disease • American Heart Association has concluded that PM2.5 poses a risk to Projections of Public Health Impacts from Climate Change in California: Scenario Analysis of • Air quality • Temperature • Infectious diseases • Wildfires Introduction to Scenario Analysis: 2006 Emission Scenarios • Three emissions scenarios • High warming potential: A1fi • Medium warming potential: A2 • Lower warming potential: B1 – Different assumptions • Economic growth • Population growth • Characteristics of technologic growth 2006 Climate Change Models • Three climate change models – PCM1: low climate sensitivity – GFDL CM2.1: medium climate sensitivity – HadCM3: medium-high climate sensitivity • Models differ in – Handling of feedbacks that amplify or lessen warming • Water vapor • Cloud cover Climate Change Scenarios Model Climate Sensitivity CLIMATE SENSITIVITY EMISSIONS GHG Emissions PCM1 GFDL A1fi A2 B1 Increased warming estimate HadCM3 10 o Change in Maximum Daily Summer Temperature (C) Increase in Daily Maximum Temperature 88 A1 A2 6 4 B1 22 0 -2 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Projected increase in summer daily maximum temperature relative to 1971 – 2000 under A1fi, A2 and B1 emissions scenarios, with three climate change models. Source: Drechsler et al., 2006 Projected Climate Impacts on California, 2070-2099 (as compared with 1961-1990) Sea Level Energy Demand 90% loss 22-30” 20% 70-80% loss 14-22” 10% 30-60% loss 6-14” 3-6% Sierra Snowpack 10 9 8 7 Higher Warming Range (8 – 10.5 °F) 6 5 4 Medium Warming Range (5.5 – 8 °F) 3 2 1 0 Lower Warming Range (3 – 5.5 °F) ºF Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov Implications of Climate Change for Air Quality and Health Climate – Related Changes in Air Quality • California already has worst air quality in the USA • Warmer temperatures accelerate atmospheric chemical reactions • Increase in background PM and ozone concentrations • Absent further controls, PM and ozone will increase Ozone versus Temperature 180 160 160 2 Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb) Daily Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb) 2 R = 0.60 140 120 100 California Ozone Standard 80 60 40 20 R = 0.82 140 120 California Ozone Standard 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 o Daily Maximum Temperature ( F) Riverside, 2003-2005 110 120 30 50 70 90 Daily Maximum Temperature (oF) Fresno, 2003-2005 110 Projected Ozone Response to Climate Central California, 2050 10 % Change in Ozone 5 Fresno Sacramento Bay Area 0 -5 2050 Emission Reductions Climate Penalty Combined Effects -10 -15 Steiner et al., “Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California”, JGR (2006) PM2.5 versus Temperature 200 250 R2 = 0.02 Daily Maximum 1-hr PM2.5 (µg/m3) Daily Maximum 1-hr PM2.5 (µg/m3) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 200 R2 = 0.15 150 100 50 0 0 50 60 70 80 90 100 o 110 30 50 70 90 o Daily Maximum Temperature ( F) Daily Maximum Temperature ( F) Riverside, 2003-2005 Fresno, 2003-2005 110 Health Effects of PM and Ozone • PM and/or ozone exposure associated with – – – – – – Premature mortality Hospitalization for cardiopulmonary causes Emergency room visits for asthma Reduced lung function growth Respiratory symptoms School absences • Air pollution health effects will be proportional to the extent to which we fail to meet air quality standards Increase in Extreme Heat Days 140 Extreme Heat Days per Year 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fresno 1961 – 1990 Levels Los Angeles Lower Warming Range (3 – 5.5 ºF) Riverside Sacramento Medium Warming Range (5.5 – 8 ºF) San Francisco Higher Warming Range (8 – 10.5 ºF) Increasing GHG Emissions Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov Excess annual heat-related deaths Heat Mortality Projections 700 600 500 Low Temperature Scenario (3-5.4 oF) 400 Medium Temperature Scenario (5.5-7.9 oF) 300 High Temperature Scenario (8-10.4 oF) 200 100 0 San Francisco Fresno Sacramento Riverside/ San Bernardino Los Angeles Projected heat-related mortality for 2070-2099 relative to 1970-2099 Uncertainties in Estimates of Future Heat-Related Mortality • Model uncertainties – Emissions estimates – Statistical issues – Inconsistent definitions of “heat-related” mortality • Contribution of physiological adaptation • Changes in healthcare • Changes in societal demographic structure – Age distribution – Population distribution Infectious Diseases and Global Warming • Water-borne diseases cryptosporidiosis) (i.e., – Primarily related to heavy rainfall, runoff, and flooding – Inadequate sewage treatment; combined sewage systems • Vector-borne diseases (i.e., West Nile virus, encephalitis, Hanta virus) – Primarily carried by mosquitoes, ticks and rodents • Food-borne diseases (i.e., Staphylococcus, E. coli) – Primarily due to poor food handling practices Projected Increases in Wildfire Frequency Wildfires and Public Health • Health effects of wildfires – Primarily related to smoke – Comparable to acute exposures to equivalent concentrations of PM • Projected effects not quantifiable – Each fire is unique – Specific fires can not be predicted Climate Change Health Effects in the United States Compared to Worldwide • United States – Emits more greenhouse gases than any other nation – Has economic resources to minimize adverse health effects related to climate change • Majority of adverse health effects will be borne by – Low emitting nations – Undeveloped countries with little infrastructure and ability to effectively meet climate-related health challenges Summary – Climate Change • Climate change is already happening worldwide • California is already warming • Likely warming range: 2 - 9° F by year 2100 • Air pollution – related health effects • Depend on extent to which we do not meet air quality standards – Heat-related mortality • Heat-related mortality estimated to increase 2 to 8 fold without adaptations – Vector-borne disease ranges will change – Wildfire-related health effects • Depend on location, intensity, and duration of fires • Proximity to a population