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Climate vulnerability profiling of Indian cities Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), C-80, Shivalik, New Delhi-110017 Introduction Cities, with total population reaching in millions are becoming focal points for climate change impacts and urbanization in turn results in growing vulnerability to environmental hazards. Today India accounts for 17 per cent of the world’s population Urban population increased from 25.8 million to 377 million in 2011 The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to 1970s ranges between 1.7oC – 2.2oC, with extreme temperatures increasing by 1-4oC Climate change has impacted the frequency and intensities of the natural hazards Disaster events in India 35 30 Occurence 25 20 Bihar Gujarat Andhra 15 Uttar Pradesh West Bengal 10 5 0 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 Axis Title 1990-1999 2000-2009 Aim of the study To conduct an objective and comprehensive vulnerability Profiling of 20 Indian cities while assessing the climate change adaptation needs of the country . Objectives: 1. To assist policy‐makers in assessing and responding to the risks associated with climate change in Indian cities. 2. To identify and characterize the hazards associated with climate change at the city‐level; (mainly JNNURM Cities) 3. Identify the most vulnerable population segments and ecosystems (people, locations, sectors) of the city; and 4. Assess the city’s ability or capacity to adapt to anticipated changes. 5. Developing a policy brief that includes specific recommendations on how to effectively mainstream climate resilience in various national level initiatives 20 Cities from 14 States are selected for study Methodology • IRADe Assessment framework -HIGS Vulnerability Profiling Template for Each City Variables Socio- Economic Characteristics Population Density Slum Population Percent of urban area (or population) susceptible to flooding. City % of national GDP Hazard and extreme events Temperature observed trends and future projections Rainfall observed trend and projections. Extreme events(floods) Drought Infrastructure status Water supply Sewerage Solid waste management Storm water drainage Transportation Power Housing Governance Administrative unit assigned to address climate change Willingness of City leadership to address climate change Description Case Study Delhi Delhi is the capital state of India and an important power centre of the nation since the ages Population in 2011 was 16.3 million In 2001, Delhi UA was home to a population of 13 million Delhi is second highly populated city in India after Mumbai Disaster Profile of the city Flood frequency • Floods in Delhi are not so much a natural phenomenon as is due to poor urban management and governance issue. • This is very clear from the recurring phenomenon of floods in the river Yamuna and flash floods caused by rains due to choked drains of Delhi. Flood vulnerability The city has been experiencing floods of various magnitudes in the past due to floods in the Yamuna and the Najafgarh Drain system. The Yamuna crossed its danger level (fixed at 204.83m) twenty five times during the last 33 years. Since 1900, Delhi has experienced six major floods in the years 1924, 1947, 1976, 1978, 1988 and 1995 when peak level of Yamuna river was one meter or more above danger level of 204.49m at old rail bridge (2.66m above the danger level) occurred on sixth September 1978. The second record peak of 206.92m was on twenty seventh September 1988. Year 1977 Enormity of damages Najafgarh drain experienced heavy floods due 21 Dead, Crop damage worth to discharge from the Sahibi River. Rs 10 million 1978: Widespread breaches (September) embankments of Yamuna occurred in rural The total damage to crops, houses and public utilities was estimated at Rs 176.1 million. 1988: Yamuna experienced floods of very high Over 8000 families affected (September) magnitude, flooding many villages and localities High floods following heavy runs in the upper 1995: 15,000 catchmen area and resultant release of water (September) homeless from Tajewala water works. Source: http://delhi.gov.in/wps/wcm/connect/doit_dm/DM/Home/Vulnerabilities/Hazards/Floods families became Flood Zoning thirteen zones based on the flooding risk in relation to incremental rise in the water level of the Yamuna (DDA, 1993). Cover a range from 199m to 212 m level of water in the Yamuna. This zoning map covers part of North Delhi on the West bank of the Yamuna and almost the entire Trans Yamuna Area on the East bank. Besides this, the Delhi Flood Control Order has also divided NCT of Delhi into four Flood Sectors, namely Sectors, namely, Shahadra; Wazirabad – Babrapur; Alipur; and Nangloi - Najafgarh sectors. Overflow causing many monsoon related diseases. Local Flooding • Increasing during recent years. Urban areas are characterized by a high area under impervious surfaces (Roads, pavements, houses etc). High surface water run-off rates resulting in loss of soft landscape This results in flash floods in the low-lying areas even after moderate precipitation. Flooding due to the city's 18 major drains has also become a common phenomenon. Already under the pressure of the city's effluent discharge, these drains experience reverse flow from the Yamuna. Source: http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf Settlement Pattern in Flood Plain High-risk zones have high population densities and sub standard housing structures. These include areas of North Delhi, and Trans Yamuna Area. Families living in the villages and unauthorized colonies within the river-bed are exposed to the highest risk from floods. There are over 15,000 such families, having over 75,000 persons. Direct effect of floods in the river Yamuna and the city's network of drains, affects the population living in the Yamuna River-bed. Local flash floods and water logging increased surface run-off due to high ratio of hard surfaces leading to flash floods. Risk of break in embankments: Protection from the river by embankments leads to a false sense of safety and development starts taking place in the shadow of these embankments. Sources: Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi http://www.delhi.gov.in/DoIT/DOIT_DM/risks%20and%20vulnerability-1.pdf Institutional framework The institutional framework for urban management in Delhi has a multiplicity of agencies, both central and state. The institutions/agencies are categorized as (A) Central Government Agencies; (B) State Government Agencies. Issues National Functions versus local functions Status Delhi, being the National capital, has to serve certain functions directly under the jurisdiction of Central Government. These clashes with the establishment of an effective local government incorporating citizen’s participation. Implementatio n of 74th CAA Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi has implemented the 74thAmendment to the Constitution. Overlapping of jurisdiction There is a lack of clarity over departmental responsibilities for land use planning, development, maintenance and enforcement. This has resulted in ineffective and uncoordinated decision making and actions. For eg., the boundaries of the revenue districts and the MCD zones do not match Overlapping of functions Other Infrastructure Sectors Delhi Development Authority (DDA) has failed to identify and coordinate with the State Government. Multiplicity of Organizations Lack of coordination and no common data base for management Conflicting and overlapping jurisdictions e.g.: three different agencies are responsible for storm water drainage in the city Source: Delhi CDP, October, 2006, Department of Urban Development Government of Delhi, IL&FS Ecosmart Limited, New Delhi Emerging issues in the city While Delhi is making progress towards climate mitigation through emission reductions and environmental improvements, there is a significant lack of awareness and planning about the issues of adaptation to climate change. Mehrotra et al (2009) note that Delhi’s response so far is often project oriented hence various incentives (i.e. subsidies and grants) have been effective for initiating projects, Rainwater‐harvesting systems installation subsidies have created demand Such experiences hold the potential to inform adaptation efforts as well. Delhi’s local efforts will need to be reconciled with regional and national priorities. Delhi’s Vulnerability Sources HAZARD Temperature observed trends and future projections Rainfall observed trend and projections Extreme events Slight warming since 1900,; 2006 lowest temperature .2*C since 1935; ; 44.9°C, highest recorded temp in 2007; 1.5°C to 2.5°C projected warming 14mm per decade increase since 1900 with large variability, projected change uncertain Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University as cited in Mehrotra et al 2009 Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University and IMD, Regional Meteorological Center, Delhi as cited in Mehrotra et al 2009 Extreme precipitation July 1994, July 1995, June 2003, Sep 2011; extreme temperature May 1978, April 1988, May 1996; faces inland flooding due to intense precipitation during monsoons EXPOSURE Population Density Poor Population 16 million; 500,000 added per year 1,400/km2 1.5 million live below poverty line; 45% live in unregulated settlements Census 2001 (update this with Census 2011) Contd…………… Delhi’s Vulnerability ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Institutions and governance measures National corruption perception index (NCPI) as measured by affecting climate change actions Transparency International Willingness of City leadership to address Key steps taken by the Government of Delhi : public transport uses climate change world’s largest fleet of CNG ; introduction of BRTS, and Delhi Metro Member C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group; People action for right to clean air; Supreme Court judgment requiring fuel switch in public transport; Analysis of climate risks of the city National action plan on climate change prepared in June 2008, Delhi is the first state to come up with an action plan to tackle climate change, in line with the Prime Minister's National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC), The plan identifies 65 actions to be taken in various fields like solar mission, energy efficiency, green India, water conservation, sustainable habitat and others in 2009-2012. Administrative unit assigned to address Mitigation and adaptation effort led by the MOEF and Delhi CM office climate change A Comparative Overview Vulnerability Matrix 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Thiruvananthpuram Kochi Puri Srinagar Shilong Dehradun Hyderabad Delhi Ahmedabad Allahabad Haridwar Bengaluru Jodhpur Indore Bhubaneswar Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y A A A A Y 1.7 B 1.6 2.1 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.7 7.7 16.3 6.3 1.2 0.3 8.5 1.1 2.1 0.8 B B C B C C A A A B C A B B C Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 5 25 9 45 18 90 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 19 95 6 30 10 50 16 80 Y Vulnerable Y Y Y Vulnerable Y Y Y Categorization Y 141 184 8.6 4.5 Y Y ( Populatio milli n base in on) 2011 MSW Drainage Sewerage Heat / waves Cyclones Y Vulnerable Hill Riverine Mixed Y Vulnerable Vulnerable 15 75 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 11 55 Issues Y Y Y Issues Visakhapatnam Cities Y Issues 5 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Issues Y Y Y Y Y Y Water supply cold Y Y Y Landslides Flooding Kolkata Mumbai Chennai Surat Coastal 1 2 3 4 Total Vulnerable cities Total (%) Infrastructure Drought City Name Classification S.No. Hazards Categorisation cities on basis population > 4 million = A 1-4 million. = B. of of Key Findings Percetage of Cities Vulnerable to Different Type of Natural Hazards Heat / cold waves 24% Drought 23% Most of the cities are vulnerable to floods and droughts. this is mainly due to drainage issues in the cities . Maximum number of cities faces issues with municipal solid waste management Percentage of Cities Facing Issues in services Cyclones 15% Landslides 9% Flooding 29% Water supply 12% MSW 26% Sewerage 21% Sewage collection and treatment is another major issue faced by the cities Drainage 41% Puri Jodhpur Haridwar Shillong Drought Dehradun Vishakhapatn… Bhubaneshwar Cyclone Allahabad Srinagar Thiruvanathpu… Landslides Kochi Indore Surat Ahmedabad Hyderabad Bengaluru Chennai Kolkata Delhi Mumbai Hazards exposure Flood Flood prone cities in India % of Flood Prone JNNURM Cities Delhi Vishakapatnam Bhuvneshwar Kanpur Imphal Nainital Meerut Vadodara Guwahati Allahabad Ahmedabad Cochin Thiruvananthapuram Lucknow Surat Agra Patna Vijaywada Faridabad Asansol Kolkata Mathura Varanasi Ludhiana Amritsar 0 20 40 60 80 100 Puri Haridwar Shillong Dehradun Bhubaneshwar Jodhpur Allahabad Srinagar Thiruvanathpuram Vishakhapatnam Population in 2001 Kochi Indore Surat Ahmedabad 18,000,000 Hyderabad Bengaluru Chennai Kolkata Delhi Mumbai Social Aspects 20,000,000 Population in 2011 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 - Source: IRADe Analysis 2012 (data source-census 2011) Kolkata Mumbai Allahabad Delhi Puri Vishakhapatnam Srinagar Jodhpur Shillong Chennai Bhubaneshwar Dehradun Hyderabad Ahmedabad Haridwar Indore Bengaluru Kochi Surat Thiruvananthapuram Decadal Growth of population 2001-2011(in percentage) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Infrastructure 1. There are only three cities with water supply above 135 lpcd 14.8 Kolkata 15.6 Allahabad 18.5 Hyderabad 22.0 Indore 32.6 Delhi 33.2 Bengaluru 36.9 Thiruvanathpuram 38.5 Jodhpur 38.9 Mumbai 77.9 Haridwar 78.8 Surat 42 38 Puri 73 Kolkata 76 Indore 96 Bhubaneshwa r 107 2. Mega Percentage of sewerage treated Vishakhapatnam 122 Bangalore 130 Hyderabad 135 Kochi Delhi 135 Mumabi 144 Surat Thiruvananth apuram 147 Jodhpur 165 Vishakhapatn am Per capita Water Supply city like Kolkata is in critical stage 3. Cities with population more than million provide less than 135lpcd 4. Most of the cities has less than 50% of sewerage treated 100.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Incidences of water logging and flooding Strom Water Drainage Puri Vishakhapatnam 1. Most of the cities have poor storm water drainage system 2. In 2010-2011 most of the cities have experienced flood and water logging incidences more than 80 times 3. Hyderabad has experienced maximum number of water logging and urban flooding in 2010-2011 Bangalore Indore Jodhpur Bhubaneshwar Kochi Surat Trivendrum Delhi Hyderabad 15 22 31 45 68 81 104 128 180 206 351 Recommendations &The Way Forward • Flood Moderation and maintaining water bodies: • Reduce non-climate stressors • Conduct medium- and long-term planning • To put Climate resilient agenda on the priority list • Capacity building at local, national levels The way forward The Central Government has initiated various measures for assisting the States in the management of floods, this includes: (i) There was setting up of the Rashtriya Barh Ayog in 1976 to look into the flood problem and suggest remedial measures. Based on its recommendations, flood management strategy in the country was formulated and forwarded to all the concerned States; (ii) Constitution of the Ganga Flood Control Commission in 1972 for the Ganga Basin States covering all the 23 river systems of Ganga; (iii) Constitution of the Brahmaputra Board fix flood management covering the rivers Brahmaputra, Bar and their major tributaries; (iv) Formulation of the National Water Policy, 2002, which has recommended fix the preparation of basin-wise Master Plans for flood management and control and for providing adequate flood cushion in the reservoir projects; (v) Constitution of a Task Force in 2004 for Flood management and Erosion Control in Assam and its neighboring States as well as Bihar, West Bengal and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. (vi) A State Sector Scheme of the Ministry of Water Resources ‘Flood Management Programme” with an outlay of Rs,80 billion has been approved by the Central Government. in November, 2007, for providing Central assistance to the State Government for critical flood management and erosion control works. Climate Resilience Plan Development of State / Regional • Vulnerability assessment of JNNURM cities at the state level Incorporation of DRR into Project Life Cycle (PLC) Strategic Role of ULBs in implementing sustainable Habitat Mission. Incorporation of prudent climate resilient plan into City Development Plan & Master Plan