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SCOTT W. TINKER: Challenges are the essence of science | Herald Democrat
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Posted May 30, 2016 - 10:42am
SCOTT W. TINKER: Challenges are the essence of
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By Scott W. Tinker
Special to the Herald Democrat
When did it become wrong to challenge science?
There is a recent move to publicly bully, disparage and shame those who
challenge a purported scientific consensus. It may feel satisfying in the short
term to deal with the “deniers” via public belittling or even legal action, but in
the long run, this tactic will erode the integrity of scientific institutions and the
very process of science.
A current example of this strategy is the effort by the U.S. attorney general
and a coalition of 17 state attorneys general to “defend” science by taking on
http://heralddemocrat.com/opinion/national-commentary/scott-w-tinker-challenges-are-essence-science[6/14/2016 1:46:04 PM]
SCOTT W. TINKER: Challenges are the essence of science | Herald Democrat
climate change deniers. On the other side, congressional committees are
conducting interrogations of climate change believers.
The use of religious terms such as “believer” and “denier” in these arguments
has little place in science. Regardless of the scientific topic or the strength of
the science — from evolution to climate change to earthquakes — the
integrity of science relies on iterative discourse and challenge, however
misinformed or conflicted it may appear.
One such scientific issue is increased earthquake activity in the U.S.,
particularly in Texas and Oklahoma. During the past decade, the number of
earthquakes, especially those felt at the ground surface, has increased
substantially. The question is whether human activity is causing the increase
and, if so, what can be done about it.
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Not surprisingly, addressing and answering that question is difficult. In some
places, the increase in earthquakes is associated with the disposal back into
the earth of water that has been produced from oil and gas wells. But, as we
learned in science class, association does not necessarily imply causation.
In fact, causation in science can be difficult to prove, especially in complex
systems such as climate and earthquakes. Instead, the scientific method
prescribes how to test various hypotheses. In the case of earthquakes, a
combination of observational, experimental, statistical and modeling
approaches and tools is required.
Those methods, neither easy nor fast, and rarely definitive, benefit from
interdisciplinary collaboration and from scientific challenge. Science depends
on independent reproduction of results and rigorous testing, and is improved by challenges brought forth from
skeptics, however irritating those challenges may seem.
In 2015, the Texas Legislature recognized the complexity and importance of the earthquake issue and put in
place a program called TexNet at The University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology. TexNet
will deploy 22 permanent seismometers across Texas and an additional 36 portable seismometers where
seismic activity occurs. It also provides research funding to combine key scientific, engineering and other
disciplines from several universities to address the complex earthquake issue.
Think about the implications of such collaboration. TexNet, by design, brings together key groups of
stakeholders to address the earthquake issue in what I have called “the radical middle” — that all-to-often
lonely space where varying interests should, ideally, converge.
Is this not inherently a conflict of interest? How can industry work with those who regulate them? Must not
academics maintain autonomy from regulators and industry? Not if we want to meaningfully address the
problem, which requires data collected from the new seismometer array, and independent analysis and
modeling provided by leading university scientists.
Addressing the problem also requires funding, data and cooperation from the capable technical people
exploring for oil and gas as well as those drilling the wells and disposing of the produced water. And finally,
addressing the problem requires an understanding of the issues and thoughtful policy from a dedicated
regulatory staff that adapts, and not overreacts, to evolving scientific understanding — policy that protects our
environment even as it allows industry to operate to provide the energy that fuels our global economy.
Functioning in this radical middle and managing the inherent challenges is not easy, but it is critical for true
progress. It takes time to establish trust and bring together different perspectives. It takes patience to deal
with — and manage — those who undermine the process. And it takes fortitude to see the process through
and thoughtfully address the challenges from skeptics. But it is those challenges, however frustrating, that will
ultimately make the scientific outcome more robust and valuable.
The concept of “settled science” is silly. Scientists should at all costs defend the right to challenge science. In
addressing challenges, science advances, little by little.
Scott W. Tinker is the state geologist of Texas, director of the Bureau of Economic Geology, and the Allday
Endowed Chair in the Jackson School of Geosciences at The University of Texas at Austin. He has been
intimately involved with forming and managing TexNet.
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