Download Key Challenges in Measuring Resource Availability

Key Challenges in Measuring
Resource Availability
Chris Hendrickson
Carnegie Mellon University
McKelvey Diagram of Reserves
German Report on Metals: Static estimates use
existing demand and technology
Non-linearity Example:
Mineralogical Barrier
Water as an Example
• US data on use of water is poor. Last
census review of US industrial water use
was over 20 years ago.
• Should distinguish between consumptive
(e.g. chemical alteration), evaporative (e.g.
cooling tower) and pass-through use (e.g.
hydro-water), but many do not.
• Market price signals weak, often dictated
by historical arrangements rather than
market prices.
Tactics for Dealing with
Resource Limits
• Substitution – difficult for essential
elements such as phosphorus, easier for
energy resources.
• Demand/Supply Equilibration with Higher
Prices.
• Recycling/Reuse to recover materials in
use – difficult with resource transformation
(e.g. burning petroleum), but mining waste
sites quite possible (e.g. mine tailings,
metals from waste-to-energy residue).
Example of Swiss Reuse
Demand Issues
• For products with numerous substitutes,
demand is relatively elastic or sensitive to
price.
• For products with unstable prices, short
term versus long term adjustments differ.
• Demand tends to increase with income (or
wealth) and population, but not necessarily
linearly (e.g. energy and GDP are not as
highly correlated now as in past decades).
Market Price and Technology
Critical
• Price
– Reserves increase with price.
– Demand decreases with price.
– Reuse increases with price.
• Technology
– Landfill mining
– New reserves
– Alternative energy