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Key Challenges in Measuring Resource Availability Chris Hendrickson Carnegie Mellon University McKelvey Diagram of Reserves German Report on Metals: Static estimates use existing demand and technology Non-linearity Example: Mineralogical Barrier Water as an Example • US data on use of water is poor. Last census review of US industrial water use was over 20 years ago. • Should distinguish between consumptive (e.g. chemical alteration), evaporative (e.g. cooling tower) and pass-through use (e.g. hydro-water), but many do not. • Market price signals weak, often dictated by historical arrangements rather than market prices. Tactics for Dealing with Resource Limits • Substitution – difficult for essential elements such as phosphorus, easier for energy resources. • Demand/Supply Equilibration with Higher Prices. • Recycling/Reuse to recover materials in use – difficult with resource transformation (e.g. burning petroleum), but mining waste sites quite possible (e.g. mine tailings, metals from waste-to-energy residue). Example of Swiss Reuse Demand Issues • For products with numerous substitutes, demand is relatively elastic or sensitive to price. • For products with unstable prices, short term versus long term adjustments differ. • Demand tends to increase with income (or wealth) and population, but not necessarily linearly (e.g. energy and GDP are not as highly correlated now as in past decades). Market Price and Technology Critical • Price – Reserves increase with price. – Demand decreases with price. – Reuse increases with price. • Technology – Landfill mining – New reserves – Alternative energy