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4G Mobile Ventures Panel Discussion Moderator: Scott A. Snyder, PhD [email protected] 610-256-0662 ©Scott A. Snyder 2010 Panel Introductions: • • • • • Scott Snyder (moderator), DSI/Wharton School Dan Deeney, New Venture Partners Anton Wahlman, Industry Analyst Macy Summers, Lockheed Martin Andreas Koch, Juniper Networks ©Scott A. Snyder 2010 Is Wireless Ready to Take-off? • • • • • • • • 4B+ wireless users WiMax and LTE being widely deployed 300M wireless sensors shipped to date (ABI Research) App store model has demolished entry barriers Immersive applications beginning to appear Convergence of ICT trends towards a ubiquitous “Cloud” Cuts across all major verticals and intersections Government investing $7.2B into broadband initiatives via ARRA Is Wireless the Internet of the Coming Decade? Breakthru LLC Confidential Information Strong Signals… Google has just announced that it has acquired AdMob, the mobile ad platform that has been especially popular on the iPhone, for $750 million. This is a big win for the company’s early investors, which include Sequoia Capital and Accel Partners (this is a huge day for Accel — they were also investors in Playfish, which was just acquired by EA). More recent investors include DFJ and Northgate Capital. Mobile advertising company Quattro Wireless confirmed Tuesday that it's been acquired by Apple, in a blog post by Quattro CEO Andy Miller, who's identifying himself now as Apple vice president of mobile advertising. A price wasn't named, but AllThingsD reported that it's $275 million when it broke the news on Monday. “This year's International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) was all about wireless. In fact, wireless was probably the most pervasive of all technologies at this year's show, extending its reach to every sector of technology, from Ford's Sync system to set-top boxes, home entertainment systems, healthcare, e-readers, tablets and M2M.” - Blog Post by Andrew Berg Monday, January 11, 2010 Breakthru LLC Confidential Information But the trends are not great… • $3.3 billion invested in 252 mobile companies in 2006 (Thomson Reuters) • $2.5 billion invested in 237 mobile companies in 2007 • U.S. VCs put just over $2 billion into 204 mobile companies in 2008 • $1 billion invested in 66 mobile companies through Q3 2009 • Many venture capitalists believe that the Wireless sector will experience declines with 37 percent predicting lower levels for next year as well (NVCA 2010 Predictions) Mobile Investment/M&A Profile Innovation Opportunities Exist at the Intersections Transportation Health Monitoring Pervasive Entertainment Remote Diagnostics Nav/Traffic Management Remote Healthcare Portable Personal Diagnostics Health Records Remote monitoring Patient Compliance Fitness BioSensors Monitoring Biometrics Distributed Gaming Surveillance Location-based Sensor Advertising Nets eWallet Demand Management SmartHome Grid Monitoring Pervasive Metering Retail Building Control Generation Monitoring Wireless Security/ Defense Retail/ Financial Energy/ Environment ©Scott A. Snyder 2010 4G Investment Landscape Wireless Infrastructure Semiconductor / RF Components • Innovative backhaul solutions • Small base stations • Enterprise networking • Baseband chips (3G / 4G) • Power amplifiers, RF filters • MIMO antennae configurations (4x4) Mobile Applications General Interest • Enterprise applications • Embedded software • Carrier grade BSS/OSS software • Security – network, devices • Mobile analytics / subscriber usage • Real-time optimization of IP traffic RAN Packet Core SGSN IP Core IuPS GGSN Gn, APN MSS Voice Core GMSC MGW VoIP Transmission 8 8 Network Capacity Continues to be a Challenge • Capacity problems experienced today in 3G networks will exist in 4G world • While 4G capacity gains may initially be in 5-10x range, ‘effective’ capacity gains in urban areas will be incremental • New devices, services and applications will contribute to complex capacity planning and network management • Underlay network of small, dense sites needed to support umbrella of marcocells • Investments that provide operators with increases in network capacity will gain traction in the market – Small base stations with innovative backhaul – Real-time optimization of traffic in meshed 4G IP networks • Improved network intelligence on capacity drivers will be key – Mobile network analytics, subscriber profiles and usage patterns – Improved service delivery based on device and service requirements The Acute Need For 4G • 3G in 2003: Solution in search of a problem • 4G in 2010: Fire hose applied to a fire – LTE around the world…eventually – WiMax early lead, but struggling with phones – WiFi: augments everything 4G Megatrends • VoIP replaces GSM/CDMA2000 – But which kind of VoIP? • Carrier-based managed VoIP • …or over-the-top providers? • Security, Security, Security – Hacking VoIP becomes #1 trend by 2011-12 – VoIP encryption to become #1 most desired app – …extending to IP-based videoconferencing Consolidation: Too much already! • Infrastructure systems – Ericsson, Huawei, Cisco, Alcatel, Motorola, Samsung, Alvarion • Operating systems – and handsets – RIM, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Palm – Dell, Samsung, LG, HTC, HP Mobile Ventures Where Capital is to be Deployed? • Capital Markets are still investing in Mobile businesses. New trends in technology, unattended sensors, enterprise integration and security will drive significant growth in mobile telecommunications capital deployment. • Deal Flow candidates: Mid-stage, recession resistant, capital efficient companies with attractive exit pathways and an experienced management team have the best profile for many Technology Funds. 1. NEW APPLICATIONS & TECHNOLOGIES 2. THE “SEA OF LTE” (AND WiMAX too) 3. NEW BUSINESS MODELS 4. CYBER & SECURITY UNIQUE NEEDS GOVERNMENT & MILITARY Mission Markets Security, Governance, Enterprise Integration, Data Exposure, Mobility, RF Challenges, Tactical Quality of Service are some of the Government challenges using 3/4G wireless for Mission Operations. SECURITY MOBILITY GOVERNANCE TACTICAL QoS The New Services Ecosystem Future Services Revenue Current Services ($2.5Trillion) ($1.8Trillion Revenue WW) Managed Telepresenc e CDN Cloud Computing, PaaS and SaaS Digital TV Online Video Mobile Advertising Mobile Data Busines s Data Loc ation Based Servic es W ireline Voice Business Model Transformation Fixed BB Home Networking Network Outsourc ing Mobile BB Ac c ess Mobile Voic e Digital TV Business Data Network Features Dedicated to NSP Walled Garden Specific Services Fixed BB Services Ecosystem Mobile Data Services Digital TV (IPTV) Business Data Fixed BB Mobil Voice Today’s SP Network Fixed Line Voice Wireline Voic e Mobile Data Mobile Voice Video Targeted Online Advertising Developer Community OTT App/Content Providers Network Transformation Device OEMs NSPs The New SP Network Service Elements in Cloud Computing Layer Policy & Identity Management Access and Transport Fabric The Open Mobile BB Challenge True mobile broadband data speeds 3.5/4G Network Buildouts – HSPA, Wimax, LTE Adoption of 3G/4G handsets Elimination of bandwidth bottleneck Opens mobile to web applications Advertising driven revenue models Emergence of mobile advertising models – Search advertising (incl. local) – Targeted ad insertion Growing role of search, portal and web services players Subsidization of “free” mobile apps Affordable consumer smart phones iPhone is changing the game – User friendly: easy access to web – ~50X BW usage of other smartphones – Millions sold even without subsidy – now subsidized at prices $200 Elimination of handset/deck bottleneck Easier for content providers to go direct Massive increase of mobile IP traffic Open handset operating systems Open Handset Alliance Android – First open, free mobile platform – Google open OS with developer kit Growing share of Linux operating systems Carrier no longer controls OS and apps Proliferation of optimized mobile apps Implications NSPs will have less bargaining power with content and device partners NSPs will need to find new ways of adding value to participate in content revenues! Mobile devices and network will become vulnerable to security threats SP Network and Cloud Based App Access Clients (billions) Global High-Performance Network Workforce Globalization Mobile Home Branch Data/App Consolidation Campus Mega Data Centers (thousands) The Value of the Service Provider Network L7 VPN L3 VPN L2 VPN Web Services Routing/Switching Virtualization Video Business Gaming Identity Residential Experience Mobile Home Telemetry Security Assured L7 Application Enhanced L7 Signature Best Effort L3/L4 Stateful L3/L4 Stateless Internet Applications Network Monetization Operator Controlled Voice/SMS centric Devices Operator Controlled Multimedia Devices 2G 3G with IMS • Primarily voice • Inefficient resource utilization • Limited service differentiation Telco Apps & Services SS7 based Apps & Services • Improved service-specific control • Policy specific to services/applications Open Devices and Applications 4G Approach • • • • Service velocity Revenue sharing models Flexible service delivery platform Operational Efficiency Applications & Services Apps & Services On-net applications IMS IMS Off-net On-net Abstraction of Application Resources Unaware of Each Other Packet Handling Policy Agg. Policy Core Edge OTT Web2.0 Requests Open Platform for Policy Based App Development Agg Edge Core Controlled User Experience Operator Driven User and Device Driven Hot areas for 4G network investments Context aware mobile multimedia applications The Network Infrastructure Enabling Their Delivery • Context aware policy engines driving QoE and security • End to end mobile security – app to device to datacenter to network • Open service delivery platforms – enabling integrated OSS/BSS, including clearinghouse DRM functions • Virtualization across wireless broadband networks • Thin client, cloud-based application delivery architectures • Advanced content distribution architectures optimizing trade offs between CDN, P2P and Context Intelligent Mobile Networking – Application Assured Cloud Infrastructure Questions? • Will investments in this space require a high degree of collaboration to succeed (operators, device vendors, app/content players, end-users, etc.)? • What are the biggest lessons learned in making investments in emerging technologies like 4G? • When will the enterprise application space become exciting as a 4G investment? • Do you have any advice to start-ups with a 4G innovation looking for capital?