Download Tables of socio-economic factors

“Baltic Challenges and Chances for
local and regional development
generated by Climate Change”
Socio-economic Stressor Mapping
– Panevezys region –
February 26, 2010
Author: Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics
1. Description of research method
Mapping of socio-economic stressors were performed at the Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian
Economics. The aim of this exercise was to select the most critical socio-economic stressors and
opportunities in Panevezys region for agriculture sector. Questionnaire research method was used
for mapping these socio-economic stressors. This questionnaire contained a list of economic, social,
demographic and technological factors. These factors were assessed in what direction they will
evolve in the next 30 to 50 years. The factors have been divided into two major categories: potential
stressors and potential opportunities. The stressors were social problems and the opportunities were
social chances. This type of research method was chosen because perceptions, opinions, beliefs and
attitudes of experts can be gathered towards analyzed subject.
2. Analysis of climatic stressors in Panevezys region.
Very influential socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region are provided
in Table 1. The most important socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region were
selected.
The most influential socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region
are
increased competition from abroad (6,3 point), ageing of population in Panevezys region (6,3
point), migration within Europe (6,3 point), risk of long-lasting economic recession (5,6 point),
increased income disparity (5,6 point), climate-exposed buildings and infrastructure (4,6 point), risk
of deficient water and sewage system (4,3 point). According to opinion of respondents, the
influence of these factors will increase in the future.
Table 1. Assessment of socio-economic factors in Panevezys region.
This socio-economic factor is very
influential for vulnerability in Panevezys
region
Increasing competition from abroad.
Ageing of population in the TA
New consumer demands
Migration within Europe
Risk of long-lasting economic recession
Increasing income disparity
Value
(from 1 to 7)*
6,3
6,3
6,3
5,6
5,6
5,6
Changes in the
future
(-, 0, +)**
+
+
+
+
+
+
2
Climate-exposed buildings and infrastructure
Risk of deficient water and sewage system
4,6
4,3
+
+
Unclear division of responsibility for meeting
crisis and weather extremes
Increasing materialism.
Population decrease in the TA.
Increasing crime
Larger differences between Baltic Sea regions
Risk of deficient road and railroad system
Insufficient energy supply
Risk of deficient telecommunications
Risk of deficient public transportation
Unemployment
International Political Insecurity (terrorism)
Migration due to climate change
Lack of public trust in social institutions
Social marginalisation
4
0
3
3
2,6
2,6
2,3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1,6
1,6
+
+
+
0
0
0
0
+
0
0
+
0
Notes:
*: 1 point means the highest disagreement, 7 – the highest agreement.
**: “-“ means that importance of this factor is decreasing (or would decrease), “0” – situation remains unchanged
(would remain unchanged), “+” means that importance of this factor is increasing (or would increase).
Potentially very positively affecting socio-economic factors in Panevezys region are
provided in Table 2. The most important socio-economic factors very positively affecting social and
economic activity in Panevezys region were selected.
The most influential socio-economic factors very positively affecting social and economic
activity in Panevezys region are private investment in environmentally friendly technology (6,6
points), public regulations to encourage environmentally friendly technology (6,6 points),
environmental awareness (6,3 points), more international trade (6,3 point), public spending and
research and development (6,0 point). According to opinion of respondents, the influence of these
factors will increase in the future.
Table 2. Assessment of potentially very positively affecting socio-economic factors in
Panevezys region.
This socio-economic factor is potentially
very positively affecting social and economic
activity in Parenezys region
Value
(from 1 to 7)*
Changes in the
future
(-, 0, +)**
3
Private investment in environmentally friendly
technology.
6,6
+
Public regulations to encourage
environmentally friendly technology
6,6
+
Environmental awareness.
More international trade.
Public spending on research & development
New alternative agricultural technologies
Economic growth.
Public expenditure on infrastructure.
Its attractiveness for investment.
Investment in social infrastructure.
6,3
6,3
6,0
6,0
5,3
5,0
4,6
4,6
3,6
3
2,3
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
0
Business development
Climate change high on the global agenda.
Investment in buildings.
Notes:
*: 1 point means the highest disagreement, 7 – the highest agreement.
**: “-“ means that importance of this factor is decreasing (or would decrease), “0” – situation remains unchanged
(would remain unchanged), “+” means that importance of this factor is increasing (or would increase).
3. Conclusions
The results of the Exercise III shows that socio-economic stressors and chances in
Panevėžys region’s agricultural sector are very close connected with the climatic and other
environmental stressors and chances. The main stressors and chances for Lithuanian TA according
the average evaluation of the exercise participants deals with 3 issues:
1. Green movement (Private investment in environmentally friendly technology -6,6; Private
investment in environmentally friendly technology -6,6; Environmental awareness – 6,3;
New consumer demands -6,3);
2. International trade influence (More international trade – 6,3; Increasing competition from
abroad – 6,3);
3. Knowledge economy influence (New alternative agricultural technologies – 6,0; Public
spending on research & development -6,0;). Ageing of population in the TA, evaluated by
6,3 points, and more than half of farmers in age group of 60 and more years, require to find
ways to train all age groups by specific tools.
4