Download Integrated Assessment Modelling

Centre for Earth Systems
Engineering Research
Centre for Earth Systems
Engineering Research
Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban
planning and infrastructure decisions
Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013
With thanks to:
Jim Hall (Oxford University)
Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University)
Mark McCarthy (Met Office)
Mike Batty (UCL)
[email protected]
Challenge: Adaptation of cities and
infrastructure to global change
• Socio-economic change
–
–
–
–
Growing global population
Changing demography
Socio-economic trends
Ownership and governance
• Urbanization
– Concentrates infrastructure
– Implications for external ‘support’ infrastructure
• Environmental pressures
– Climate change
– Broader sustainability tradeoffs
– Relationship with land use
• Deterioration and replacement
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Engineering Research
Some complicities and tradeoffs
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Response
Potential benefit
Potential negative impact
Air conditioning
Reduce heat stress
Increase energy needs and emissions
Densification of cities
Reduce public transport emissions
Desalination plants
Irrigation
Secure water supply
Supplying water for food
Biofuels for transport and
Reduce GHG emissions
energy
Catalytic convertors
Improve air quality
Cavity wall insulation
Raise flood defence
Reduce GHG emissions
Reduce flood frequency
Pesticides
Control vector borne disease
Conservation areas
Preserve biodiversity and ecosystems
Insurance/disaster relief Spread the risk from high-impact events
Traffic bypasses or radial Displaces traffic from city centre,
routes
improving air quality and reducing noise
Discourage vehicle use to reduce
Vehicle user charging
greenhouse gas emissions
Increase urban heat island intensity and exposure
to grater noise pollution
Increase greenhouse gas emissions
Salinisation of soil, degradation of wetlands,
Encourage deforestation; replace food crops raising
food prices; can increase local air quality pollutants
such as NOx
Large scale mining and international resource
movements
Increase damages from a flood event
Encourage more development (positive feedbacks)
Impact on human health, increased insect
resistance
Loss of community livelihoods
Reduce longer term incentive to adapt
Can increase congestion and journey times
(consequently overall greenhouse gas emissions)
Lead to greater social inequality
Adapted from: Dawson (2011) Potential pitfalls on the pathway to sustainable cities…and how to avoid them, Carbon Management, Vol 2(2)
City-scale climate scenarios
Socio-economic scenarios
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Sea level rise
• Storm surge
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Engineering Research
Regional economy
• Dynamic resource
interactions
between sectors
• Specialist energy
sector module
Greenhouse gas emissions
• Multi-sectoral emissions accounting
• Detailed sub-modules for transport
(personal and freight)
Land use Transport Model
• Employment
• Multi-modal transport
• Developed land cover
• Population
• Planning constraints
and attractors
Climate impacts and adaptation
Analyse risks of
• Flooding
• Drought
• Urban heat
Test adaptation options
Analysis of city-scale energy policies
Testing of policy options
Working with
key London
stakeholders
Climate vs. Socio-economic change:
Flood risk
Baseline 2100
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Engineering Research
Eastern axis 2100
2005
Centralisation 2100
Sub-urbanisation 2100
Socio-economic vs. Climate change
Flood risk for different land use change
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Socio-economic vs. Climate change
Attribution of flood risk
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Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change
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Engineering Research
Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change
- 34% (annually incremented) by 2100
(mid-point of sustainable homes code)
+300,000 Ml from 2020
+300 Ml/day from 2020
- 40% (annually incremented) by 2100
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Drought risk: Potential mitigation tradeoff
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Energy consumption
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Carbon Dioxide (Mt/year)
1.25
Land use: Adaptation vs. Mitigation
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Engineering Research
Average current
heat emissions
Land use pressures
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Tough decisions
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Transformation of urban systems
to be climate sensitive will require
• Motivation and leadership
• Much improved understanding of the
mechanisms of interaction in urban
function, via:
– Land use
– Transport
– Resource flows (energy, water,
nutrients)
– Building form and function
– Urban climate
– Information networks
• Recognition of the time scales of
change and the legacy of past
decisions (planning, infrastructure,
buildings)
• Develop collective understanding of
urban function and collaborative
platforms for exploration of transition
strategies
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Engineering Research
Can IA information improve the urban experience?
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Engineering Research
“We have come to recognise how
integrated modelling of the type delivered
by the Tyndall Centre Cities programme
can help to bring different stakeholders
together
to
develop
common
understanding
of
processes
and
consequences of long term change.
That collective understanding is essential
if we are to manage change rather than
become its victims.”
Alex Nickson,
Strategy manager: climate
change adaptation and water,
Greater London Authority
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/researchprogramme/outputs/
[email protected]
Challenges for using IA information
to improve the urban experience?
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Engineering Research
1. How far is far enough in tracking down consistency,
interactions and feedbacks?
2. How should we estimate and communicate
uncertainties?
3. Can we transfer IA insights and methods to other cities
worldwide?
4. How can IA information flows be best exploited by
organisations and individuals?
5. How can we build a global coalition of researchers and
practitioners equipped to address these problems?
Centre for Earth Systems
Engineering Research
Centre for Earth Systems
Engineering Research
Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban
planning and infrastructure decisions
Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10th September 2013
With thanks to:
Jim Hall (Oxford University)
Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University)
Mark McCarthy (Met Office)
Mike Batty (UCL)
[email protected]