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Transcript
Restoration Under Climate Change John Stanturf, Southern Research Station Athens, GA [email protected] Disclaimer: The views expressed here are my own, and do not necessarily represent the policy of the Forest Service or the Department of Agriculture. Two Questions Managers (Should) Ask • When should I change from adapting to current conditions (which project the future from the past) to managing for adaptation to future conditions? • What if future conditions are radically different from the past, and from projections of the future?” Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change Features Vulnerability Target Restoration Paradigm Species Incremental Anticipatory Reduce vulnerability to current stressors Ecological restoration: historic fidelity Native Reduce vulnerability to Reduce vulnerability to current and future stressors current and future stressors Functional restoration Intervention ecology Genetics Local sources, natural evolution Invasive Species Prevent or remove Novel Ecosystems Prevent or avoid Native, or exotic with functional equivalencies Conventional breeding or biotechnology for clones or provenances with adaptive traits Accept those that are functional analogs to extirpated natives Accept and manage neonative (emergent) assemblages Transformational Native, exotic, or designer species Transgenic for keystone species, cloning extinct species Accept as novel Manage novel and emergent ecosystems (exotics dominate)
