Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
AWIO20 FMEE 251131 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN DATE: 2016/05/25 AT 1200 UTC PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY: Nil. PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION: The basin is in Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern waving between 3 and 7S. Deep convection is moderate and fluctuating East of 75E and North of 10S. West of 70E, North of a baroclinic area, axed 5S/50E, 12S/70E, 20S/90E, deep convective activity is locally strong. A low level clockwise circulation (LLCC), partially exposed, has developed near 6.0S/62.0E at 0900Z within the low level warm air North of the baroclinic area. 0535Z ASCAT swath indicates maximum winds between 10/15 kt reaching 20/25 kt over the southern semi-circle by gradient effect. Minimum pressure is estimated at 1008 kt. Environmental conditions are unfavourable for further development with a moderate to strong vertical wind shear. LLCC is forecasted to move slowly and fill up slowly at the end of the week. Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 5 days. NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days: Very low: Low: less than 10% 10% to 30% Moderate: High: 30% to 50% 50% to 90% Very high: over 90% The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.