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Marla Spivack Using Night Lights Data to Measure the Impact of Conflict on Growth at a Sub-National Level in Uganda 1. A description of what you would like to do on your project (what is the question or questions you would like to answer, the issue you are tackling, etc.) I hope to look at the impact of conflict on growth in sub-regional levels using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Time series Night Lights data as a proxy for growth. My project will address the broad question “Does conflict impact growth?” More specifically, do regions affected by violence within a country experience less economic growth as a result or is the entire country affected more or less equally by conflict? A great deal of academic work has shown that countries, which are prone to violence or instability have economic struggles as a result, and a great deal of policy work has highlighted the connection between violence and growth on the country scale. However, because the income data most commonly used ot measure economic growth are only available at the national level, it is not possible to determine if these growth effects are isolated to the region experiencing violence, or if they bleed into the whole state causing more wide spread stagnation and recession. The lights data are unique in that they can serve as a proxy for growth on a sub-national level, they can allow us to see if the economic impacts of conflict are most acute in the regions where conflicts are taking place as apposed to other regions. Each pixel in the night lights data set represents .86km, making it possible to observe changes in lighting on a very small scale. The work of Adam Storeygaurd, an PhD candidate at Brown University and soon to be member of the Tufts economics department, has a forthcoming paper that demonstrates the feasibility and validity of the night-lights data as a proxy for growth. In this paper he addresses many of the potential limitations to this data, which would make my project unfeasible. Most importantly, he shows that the lights are useful and robust on a sub-national level and do not suffer from ratcheting effects. We might assume that once an area is lighted it does not become unlighted even in a time of economic recession. While this may be true in developed countries he shows that this is not the case for low income countries. With steady increase in interstate and irregular conflict that we have seen in the 21st century, many conflicts especially in developing countries are localized to specific regions, rather than nation wide. This project should help shed light on the growth consequences of these regional or sub national conflicts. 2. Provide at least four references in APA citation format that use similar methods and/or tackle similar issues (at least two of these should come from peer-reviewed journals). For each reference, briefly describe why you found this reference helpful and how it may influence your project (or why it isn't useful if that's the case). Do NOT simply copy the abstract! If you cannot find references of exactly what you are doing, find references at least in the same general field or one using similar data sets. (2011). World development report. New York: Oxford University Press. The 2011 World Development Report focuses on the economic impacts of conflict and how and why countries in conflict suffer from economic stagnation and resession as a result of both violent and nonviolent conflict and political instability. It compiles a wide variety of literature and scholarly opinions on this subject. The wide range of opinions brought together in this one text all provide support to my hypothesis that areas of conflict will experience less growth than areas without conflict. This text makes this argument at the national level, my analysis will be able to show this at a sub-national level. Rodrik, D. (1999). Where did all of the growth go? external shocks, social conflict, and growth collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385-412. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40216016?&Search=yes&searchText=data&searchText=conflict&searchTe xt=light&searchText=economic&searchText=growth&list=hide&searchUri=/action/doAdvancedSearch? q0=light+data&f0=all&c1=AND&q1=economic+growth&f1=all&c2=AND&q2=conflict&f2=all&acc=on&w c=on&ar=on&sd=&ed=&la=&jo=&dc.Economics=Economics&dc.Geography=Geography&Search=Sea rch&prevSearch=&item=1&ttl=5792&returnArticleService=showFullText In this paper Dani Rodrik argues that social conflicts within a country can be directly linked to inconsistencies in growth rates over time. His analysis is based on the use of national income numbers, which while helpful, may not be as accurate as necessary, especially in countries with poor governance that are likely to experience conflict. Additionally, these numbers are not available at a sub-national level. My analysis will support and extend Rodrik’s findings by focusing on a specific country, but looking sub-natioanlly. Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40215915?&Search=yes&searchText=data&searchText=conflict&searchTe xt=light&searchText=economic&searchText=growth&list=hide&searchUri=/action/doAdvancedSearch? q0=light+data&f0=all&c1=AND&q1=economic+growth&f1=all&c2=AND&q2=conflict&f2=all&acc=on&w c=on&ar=on&sd=&ed=&la=&jo=&dc.Economics=Economics&dc.Geography=Geography&Search=Sea rch&prevSearch=&item=3&ttl=5792&returnArticleService=showFullText This paper also highlights the relationship between instability and stagnate or recessionary growth. Henderson, V., Storeygarud, A., & Weil, D. Measuring economic growth from outer space. forthcoming, American Economic Review. This paper forms the basis of my use for the lights data as a proxy for economic growth. In it the authors show that the night lights can be used as a proxy for growth, and provide a formula estimation for the relationship between lights and actual GDP growth, which will allow me to project GDP growth numbers for sub-regional areas based on the light saturation of these areas. 3. Describe the methods you think you will use (because we haven't covered all analysis options in detail yet, this may be very preliminary) I plan to use a combination of spatial and regression analysis to execute this project. I will use the methods employed by Adam Storeygaurd to estimate economic growth at the subnational level to estimate changes in growth based on the changes in light observed from outer space. I will estimate these growth changes at the sub-county level in Uganda on a yearly basis. This is possible because each raster pixel in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Associations data is .86 square km, so the data are extremely accurate and able to show changes on a very small scale. I will also use the Hot Spot Analysis / Kernel smoothing technique to develop a raster rating of the intensity of conflict in each sub-district for each year. Then I will be able to determine if sub-counties with higher intensity of conflict experience less growth than counties with less conflict. My analysis will rely on the use of both STATA and ArcGIS. 4. List the data layers you will need for this project and where you will acquire them from. Note: This section of your report should take the form of a table with each data layer occupying one row. Data Type Data Source Incidence of conflict in Uganda Tufts GIS Light Data National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association Gridded Population of the world Tufts GIS Uganda administrative areas Tufts GIS