Download Marla Spivack Using Night Lights Data to Measure the Impact of

Marla Spivack
Using Night Lights Data to Measure the Impact of Conflict on Growth at a Sub-National Level in
Uganda
1.
A description of what you would like to do on your project (what is the question or questions
you would like to answer, the issue you are tackling, etc.)
I hope to look at the impact of conflict on growth in sub-regional levels using the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s Time series Night Lights data as a proxy for growth. My project will
address the broad question “Does conflict impact growth?” More specifically, do regions affected by
violence within a country experience less economic growth as a result or is the entire country affected
more or less equally by conflict? A great deal of academic work has shown that countries, which are
prone to violence or instability have economic struggles as a result, and a great deal of policy work has
highlighted the connection between violence and growth on the country scale. However, because the
income data most commonly used ot measure economic growth are only available at the national
level, it is not possible to determine if these growth effects are isolated to the region experiencing
violence, or if they bleed into the whole state causing more wide spread stagnation and recession. The
lights data are unique in that they can serve as a proxy for growth on a sub-national level, they can
allow us to see if the economic impacts of conflict are most acute in the regions where conflicts are
taking place as apposed to other regions. Each pixel in the night lights data set represents .86km,
making it possible to observe changes in lighting on a very small scale. The work of Adam
Storeygaurd, an PhD candidate at Brown University and soon to be member of the Tufts economics
department, has a forthcoming paper that demonstrates the feasibility and validity of the night-lights
data as a proxy for growth. In this paper he addresses many of the potential limitations to this data,
which would make my project unfeasible. Most importantly, he shows that the lights are useful and
robust on a sub-national level and do not suffer from ratcheting effects. We might assume that once an
area is lighted it does not become unlighted even in a time of economic recession. While this may be
true in developed countries he shows that this is not the case for low income countries.
With
steady increase in interstate and irregular conflict that we have seen in the 21st century, many conflicts
especially in developing countries are localized to specific regions, rather than nation wide. This
project should help shed light on the growth consequences of these regional or sub national conflicts.
2.
Provide at least four references in APA citation format that use similar methods and/or tackle
similar issues (at least two of these should come from peer-reviewed journals). For each reference,
briefly describe why you found this reference helpful and how it may influence your project (or why it
isn't useful if that's the case). Do NOT simply copy the abstract! If you cannot find references of
exactly what you are doing, find references at least in the same general field or one using similar data
sets.
(2011). World development report. New York: Oxford University Press.
The 2011 World Development Report focuses on the economic impacts of conflict and how and why
countries in conflict suffer from economic stagnation and resession as a result of both violent and nonviolent conflict and political instability. It compiles a wide variety of literature and scholarly opinions on
this subject. The wide range of opinions brought together in this one text all provide support to my
hypothesis that areas of conflict will experience less growth than areas without conflict. This text
makes this argument at the national level, my analysis will be able to show this at a sub-national level.
Rodrik, D. (1999). Where did all of the growth go? external shocks, social conflict, and growth
collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385-412. Retrieved from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/40216016?&Search=yes&searchText=data&searchText=conflict&searchTe
xt=light&searchText=economic&searchText=growth&list=hide&searchUri=/action/doAdvancedSearch?
q0=light+data&f0=all&c1=AND&q1=economic+growth&f1=all&c2=AND&q2=conflict&f2=all&acc=on&w
c=on&ar=on&sd=&ed=&la=&jo=&dc.Economics=Economics&dc.Geography=Geography&Search=Sea
rch&prevSearch=&item=1&ttl=5792&returnArticleService=showFullText
In this paper Dani Rodrik argues that social conflicts within a country can be directly linked to
inconsistencies in growth rates over time. His analysis is based on the use of national income
numbers, which while helpful, may not be as accurate as necessary, especially in countries with poor
governance that are likely to experience conflict. Additionally, these numbers are not available at a
sub-national level. My analysis will support and extend Rodrik’s findings by focusing on a specific
country, but looking sub-natioanlly.
Alesina, A., Özler, S., Roubini, N., & Swagel, P. (1996). Political instability and economic
growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. Retrieved from
http://www.jstor.org/stable/40215915?&Search=yes&searchText=data&searchText=conflict&searchTe
xt=light&searchText=economic&searchText=growth&list=hide&searchUri=/action/doAdvancedSearch?
q0=light+data&f0=all&c1=AND&q1=economic+growth&f1=all&c2=AND&q2=conflict&f2=all&acc=on&w
c=on&ar=on&sd=&ed=&la=&jo=&dc.Economics=Economics&dc.Geography=Geography&Search=Sea
rch&prevSearch=&item=3&ttl=5792&returnArticleService=showFullText
This paper also highlights the relationship between instability and stagnate or recessionary growth.
Henderson, V., Storeygarud, A., & Weil, D. Measuring economic growth from outer space.
forthcoming, American Economic Review.
This paper forms the basis of my use for the lights data as a proxy for economic growth. In it the
authors show that the night lights can be used as a proxy for growth, and provide a formula estimation
for the relationship between lights and actual GDP growth, which will allow me to project GDP growth
numbers for sub-regional areas based on the light saturation of these areas.
3.
Describe the methods you think you will use (because we haven't covered all analysis options
in detail yet, this may be very preliminary)
I plan to use a combination of spatial and regression analysis to execute this project.
I will use the methods employed by Adam Storeygaurd to estimate economic growth at the subnational level to estimate changes in growth based on the changes in light observed from outer space.
I will estimate these growth changes at the sub-county level in Uganda on a yearly basis. This is
possible because each raster pixel in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Associations data is .86
square km, so the data are extremely accurate and able to show changes on a very small scale. I will
also use the Hot Spot Analysis / Kernel smoothing technique to develop a raster rating of the intensity
of conflict in each sub-district for each year. Then I will be able to determine if sub-counties with higher
intensity of conflict experience less growth than counties with less conflict.
My analysis will rely on the use of both STATA and ArcGIS.
4.
List the data layers you will need for this project and where you will acquire them from. Note:
This section of your report should take the form of a table with each data layer occupying one row.
Data Type
Data Source
Incidence of conflict in Uganda
Tufts GIS
Light Data
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association
Gridded Population of the world
Tufts GIS
Uganda administrative areas
Tufts GIS