Download Biodiversity and Climate Change

Biodiversity and Climate Change
Using Florida Plants
To Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution
Biodiversity:
The totality of life on Earth
Biodiversity Crisis & Societal Problems
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Loss of biodiversity
Climate change
Emerging pathogens
Invasive species
Threats to food security
Environmentally induced health issues
Solving these biodiversity-centered problems
requires concentrated attention
from diverse perspectives
Invasive Species:
Ecological & Economic Impacts
• Where have invasives been introduced, and how quickly
are they spreading?
• What is the pattern of spread, and do patterns covary with
other species?
• How does climate change affect the spread of invasives?
• Can we predict future invasions?
Biodiversity Collections
The single largest
source of information
on biological diversity (outside nature)
>1,600 natural history collections in US alone
1 billion specimens
in USA
2-4 billion specimens
globally
Collections:
The Library of Life
Florida Museum
of Natural History
> 30 Million
Specimens and Artifacts
2nd Largest University Museum
in US
Collection Size: World Ranking
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Millions of Specimens
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Institution
Collection Size: US Ranking
Florida Plant Diversity in a Changing Climate
Integrating herbarium specimen data,
climate change models, and phylogeny
Florida Plant Phylogeny
Includes:
239 families (100% of FL)
1336 genera (96% of FL)
2587 species (63% of FL)
Today, 2050, 2080
C. Germain-Aubrey, J. Allen,
K. Neubig, L. Majure, R. Abbott, R. Guralnick, J. M. Ponciano, D. Soltis, P. Soltis
Modeling the Distribution of
Species
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Location information and environmental data
Software to model the range of each species
Project onto future climate conditions
For Florida plants:
– >1500 plant species (of 4200 species)
– >511,000 georeferenced points
– Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
Responses to Climate Change: Winners & Losers
Abildgaardia ovata (flatspike sedge)
now
2050
Prunus geniculata (scrub plum)
now
2050
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Florida Plant Diversity Now
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High
species diversity
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1200
Low
species diversity
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600
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Research Lab
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Field
Museum
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Teaching Module
Objectives
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To use niche modeling as an example of how natural history collections are utilized by scientists.
To show students the applications of niche modeling, such as climate change and urbanization.
To familiarize students with the programs used to generate the models and the logic behind how those programs
work.
To gain a better appreciation of the factors impacting the distribution of biodiversity today and in the future.
Focal Concepts
Skills Developed
Skills and access needed
Audience/Duration
Assessment
Future Directions
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Add a phylogenetic context: Basic understanding of tree building, including parsimony and characters
The role of DNA in phylogenetic analysis, and the possible contribution of museum specimens in this process
Overview of Day’s Activities
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Introduction – Pam
Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan
iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn
Georeferencing – Blaine
Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte
Tying to phylogeny – Doug
Discussion & Wrap-up
Using Museum Specimens and Computer Models
in Biodiversity Studies
• Herbaria important sources of
information on past and
present species distributions
• Location information and
environmental data
– temperature, precipitation, soil
• Software to model the range
of each species
• Project onto future climate
conditions
• >2700 plant species (of 4200)
>511,000 plant location records
Calhoun County
www.idigbio.org
National center for digitization of biodiversity collections
Collaboration among FLMNH, Engineering, & FSU: ~$12M
Coordinate digitization and databasing of US collections
Ingest, serve, integrate data:
Localities
Dates
Images
HUB
134 institutions
49and
states
Tenin
TCNS
collaborating institutions:
152 institutions in 50 states
Georeferencing
• Assigns geographic coordinates to locality data
• Allows data from previous collection events to be
displayed on digital maps
• Allows researchers to:
– visualize the spatial and temporal intensity of
scientific collecting activity
– examine species distributions
– develop predictive models of species habitat use
– use natural history data to address important
scientific and societal needs such as conservation,
environmental restoration, and preparing for global
climate change
Elements of a niche taxonomy
J. Soberon
Modeling the Distribution of
Species
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Location information and environmental data
Software to model the range of each species
Project onto future climate conditions
For Florida plants:
– >2700 plant species (of 4200 species)
– >511,000 georeferenced points
– Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
Overview of Day’s Activities
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8:30 Introduction – Pam
9:00 Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan
9:15 iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn
9:30 Georeferencing – Blaine
9:45 Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte
10:00 Break
10:15 Ecological Niche Modeling Step by Step
12:30 Lunch
1:00 Tying to phylogeny – Doug
Discussion & Wrap-up – all
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• Panhandle
species
moving
NORTH!
• Peninsula
species
moving
SOUTH!
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Between Now and 2050…
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# spp 2050 - #spp now
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Sea Level Rise by 2050
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4m