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A CASE STUDY THE APRIL INFLATION RATE May 17, 2006 Date of Announcement May 7, 2006 Date of Next Announcement June 14, 2006 Announcement The consumer price index (CPI) during the month of April increased by .6 percent (six-tenths of one percent). The rate of increase in the consumer price index over the past twelve months has been 3.5 percent. In April, the core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food prices, increased by .3 percent (three-tenths of one percent). The core index has increased by 2.3 percent over the last twelve months. Interactive question – Is the rate of inflation, as measured by changes in the overall CPI, during April particularly high, low, or just about equal to recent monthly levels? Current inflation is higher than it has been. Current inflation is about the same as it has been. Current inflation is lower than it has been. 1 Pop-up answer – Current inflation is higher than it has been. If one of the other answers is chosen, this should pop-up – No, that is not correct. Inflation in April was above that of recent months. Is the rate of inflation, as measured by the core CPI, over the last 12 months particularly high, low, or just about the same when compared to changes over the last 25 years? Current inflation is higher than recent years. Pop-up answer – Current inflation is about the same as recent years. Current inflation is lower than recent years. Current inflation is lower than in recent years. 2 If one of the other answers is chosen, this should pop-up – No, that is not correct. Inflation over the last 12 months is lower than it has historically been. For teachers – Inflation during April appears to be increasing, but still inflation over the last year is still low relative to past rates. Information for Teachers All paragraphs in italics will not appear in the student version of the inflation case study. The original press release can be found at www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Goals of Case Study The goals of the Inflation Case Studies are to provide teachers and students: access to easily understood, timely interpretations of monthly announcements of rate of change in prices in the U.S. economy; descriptions of major issues surrounding the data announcements; brief analyses of historical perspectives; questions and activities to use to reinforce and develop understanding of relevant concepts; and a list of publications and resources that may benefit classroom teachers and students interested in exploring inflation. 3 Definitions of Inflation Inflation is a continual increase in the overall level of prices. It is an increase in average prices that lasts at least a few months. The most widely reported measurement of inflation is the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI compares the prices of a set of goods and services relative to the prices of those same goods and services in a previous month or year. Changes in the prices of those goods and services approximate changes in the overall level of prices paid by consumers. The core consumer price index is the average price of the same set of goods and services, without including food and energy prices, relative to the price of the set without food and energy prices in a previous month or year. Data Trends In April, the consumer price index increased by .6 percent, after increasing .4 percent in March and .1 percent in February. In April, energy prices increased once again. Price indexes for transportation and apparel also rose. The annual rate of change over the last three months was an increase of 4.1 percent and over the last 12 months, an increase of 3.5 percent. Annual inflation rates from 2002 through 2005 were 2.4, 1.9, 3.3 and 3.4 percent. The core rate of inflation (increased by .3 percent in April) represents changes in the consumer price index without the influences of changes in the prices of food and energy, which can fluctuate widely from month to month. The increased April index compares to .1 and .3 percent increases in the core rate of inflation in each of the previous two months. Core prices increased more slowly in the last two months than the overall index due to rises in prices of energy. The annual rate of increase in prices of energy over the last three months was 16.9 percent. Extra attention is given by forecasters to the core index as it tends to show more lasting trends in prices. This month’s results provide some evidence that the increase in energy prices over the last several years has not significantly influenced rates of increases in all other prices, but may be beginning to have an upward pressure on other prices. The rapid rise in 4 energy prices may eventually have a significant effect on all other prices in the economy. Figure 1 Figure 1 shows recent inflation data reported for each month. It is obvious that the monthly inflation figures change a great deal from one month to the next. However, the trend has been an increasing one over the last several months. It is however difficult to tell what the trend over a longer period of time has been. Figure 2 shows the changes in the core index compared to the changes in the overall CPI. Obviously the changes in prices other than energy and food have been significantly smaller than the changes in the overall index. Figure 2 Figure 3 shows annual rates of inflation from the 1970s to now. Compared to the rates of inflation in the 1970s and much of the 1980s, the current rate of inflation is low. Few observers would describe the most recent rates, prior to the last few months, as high and they are not, when compared to those of the past thirty years. However, the recent rates have been increasing and that has caused some concern. See the most recent Federal Reserve case study and the exercises at the end of this case. Figure 3 The Consumer Price Index The seasonally adjusted consumer price index in April was 201. The price index was equal to 100 during the period from 1982 to 1984. The appropriate interpretation of the index is that prices in the market basket of goods and services purchased by the typical consumer increased from 5 the 1982-1984 period to April, 2006 by 101 percent. A typical consumer good that cost one dollar in 1983 now costs $2.01. Inflation is announced and reported in newspapers and television news as percentage changes in the CPI on a monthly basis. For example, the CPI in April was 201, compared to 199.8 in March. The increase in prices from April to March was (201 – 199.8) / 199.8 = .006. That means a monthly inflation rate of .6 percent or six-tenths of one percent. To convert this into an approximate annual rate, you can simply multiply by 12. This provides us an annual inflation rate of (.6) (12) = 7.2 percent. Table 1 Month April March Price Level 201 199.8 Monthly Inflation Rate 201 – 199.8 = .006 or .6 % 199.8 How the CPI is Calculated Assume that there are only three goods (instead of goods and services in over 200 categories in the actual calculation) included in the typical consumer’s purchases and, in the base or the original year, the goods had prices of $10.00, $20.00, and $30.00. The typical consumer purchased ten of each good. In the current year, the goods’ prices are $11, $24, and $33. Consumers now purchase 12, 8, and 11 of each good. The CPI for the current year would be the quantities purchased in the market basket in the base year (ten of each good) times their prices in the current year divided by the quantities purchased in the market basket in the base year times their prices in the base year. Thus [(10 x $11) + (10 x $24) + (10 x $33)] / [( 10 x $10) + (10 x $20) + (10 x $30)] = $680 / $600 = 1.133. That is, prices in the current year are 1.133 times the prices in the original year. Prices have increased on average by 13.3 percent. The quantities are the base year quantities in both the numerator and the denominator. By convention, the indexes are multiplied by 100 and reported as 113.3 instead of 1.133. 6 The base year index simply divides the prices in the base year (times the quantities in the base year) by the prices in base year (times the quantities in the base year). The base-year index then is 1.00; or multiplied by 100 equals 100. How the CPI Data are Collected The Bureau of Labor Statistics samples the purchases of households representing 87 percent of the population. The consumer price index measures prices of goods and services in a market basket of goods and services that is intended to be representative of a typical consumer's purchases. Forty-one percent of the market basket is made up of goods that consumers purchase. The other fifty-nine percent includes services. Goods and services sampled include food, clothing, housing, gasoline, other transportation prices, medical, dental, and legal services and hundreds of other retail goods and services. Taxes associated with the purchases are included. Each item is weighted in the average according to its share of the spending of the households included in the sample. Almost 80,000 prices in 87 urban areas across the country are sampled by Bureau of Labor Statistics professionals. Visits and phone calls are made to thousands of households and thousands of retail stores and offices. For more information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics, visit www.bls.gov. A Market Basket of Goods and Services The Consumer Price Index measures prices of goods and services in a market basket of goods and services that is intended to be representative of a typical consumer's purchases. The relative importance of each of the categories of goods and services that included in the market basket are as follows: Housing Transportation 42 % 17 % Recreation 6% Education and communication 6 % 7 Food and beverages 15 % Medical care 6% Clothing Other goods and services 4% 4% CPI Interactive Exercise If a family’s annual income has increased from $30,000 to $40,000 over the last 22 years (from 1983 to 2006), what has happened to its real income? Its real income has: Increased Pop-up - Decreased Not changed One cannot tell. Decreased If one of the other answers is chosen, this should pop-up – No, that is not correct. Think about the current index and compare the change to the change in nominal income. Then, try again. Teachers - The correct answer is decreased. There are two primary ways to make the calculation. Prices have doubled. Income in this case has 8 increased by one-third. Thus, real income has decreased as prices have increased by more than nominal (using current prices) income. A second method is that one could divide the current nominal income by 2.01 to get the current income in 1983 dollars. That is the real income. The result is that the current real income is $19,900. Thus real income has decreased from $30,000 to $19,000. CPI Interactive Exercise If GDP in a country increases from $10 trillion to $11 trillion from one year to the next, what has happened to real GDP? Assume that the GDP price index was 200 in the first year and 220 in the second. Increased Decreased Not changed Pop-up – If the third answer is chosen. Yes, that is correct. Real GDP has not changed. If one of the other answers is chosen, this should pop-up – No, that is not correct. Compare the percentage increase in GDP with the percentage increase in prices. Then, try again. 9 Teachers - The correct answer is not changed. Again there are two ways to arrive at the answer. Prices increased by 10 percent. GDP increased by 10 percent. Therefore, real GDP did not change. A more exact calculation is to calculate real GDP in both cases. In the first year, real GDP equals $10 trillion / 2.00 = $5 trillion in the base year’s dollars. In the second year, real GDP equals $11 trillion / 2.20 = $5 trillion. Below another measure, the GDP price index, is discussed and it is the one that is actually used in relationship to GDP. Causes of Inflation To understand causes of inflation, think of markets for individual products. What might cause prices to increase if we observe that prices are rising in most markets and if we know that overall output is rising? Choose as many as are relevant. Increases in supply Pop-up – Increases in demand Decreases in supply Decreases in demand Increases in demand Teachers - The correct answer - Increases in demand will cause prices to rise at the same time quantity is increasing. If demand is rising more rapidly than supply in most markets, most prices will be rising and output will be increasing. If the cause of inflation were decreases in supply, output would be falling. What might cause prices to increase if we observe that prices are rising in most markets and if we know that overall output is falling? Choose as many as are relevant. 10 Increases in supply Pop-up – Increases in demand Decreases in supply Decreases in demand Decreases in supply Teachers - The correct answer - Decreases in supply will cause prices to rise while at the same time output is falling. If the cause of inflation is an increase in demand, then output should be increasing. Over short periods of time, inflation can be caused by increases in costs or increases in spending. Inflation resulting from an increase in aggregate demand or total spending is called demand-pull inflation. Increases in demand, particularly if production in the economy is near the fullemployment level of real GDP, pull up prices. It is not just rising spending. If spending is increasing more rapidly than the capacity to produce, there will be upward pressure on prices. Inflation can also be caused by increases in costs of major inputs used throughout the economy. This type of inflation is often described as costpush inflation. Increases in costs push prices up. The most common recent examples are inflationary periods caused largely by increases in the price of oil. Or if employers and employees begin to expect inflation, costs and prices will begin to rise as a result. Over longer periods of time, that is, over periods of many months or years, inflation is caused by growth in the supply of money that is above and beyond the growth in the demand for money. Inflation, in the short run and when caused by changes in demand, has an inverse relationship with unemployment. If spending is rising faster than capacity to produce, unemployment is likely to be falling and demand-pull inflation increasing. If spending is rising more slowly than capacity to produce, unemployment will be rising and there will be little demand-pull inflation. 11 That relationship disappears when inflation is primarily caused by increases in costs. Unemployment and inflation can then rise simultaneously. Other Measures of Inflation The GDP price index (sometimes referred to as the implicit price deflator). The GDP price index is an index of prices of all goods and services included in the gross domestic product. The index is a measure that is broader than the consumer price index and is more appropriate to use in calculating real GDP than the CPI, which measures changes in consumer prices alone. The producer price index. This index measures prices at the wholesale or producer level. It can act as a leading indicator of inflation facing consumers. If the prices producers are charging are increasing, it is likely that consumers will eventually be faced with higher prices for good they buy at retail stores. A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data "Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month. For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation." (ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/cpi.txt) 12 Costs of Inflation Understanding the costs of inflation is not an easy task. There are a variety of myths about inflation. There are debates among economists about some of the more serious problems caused by inflation. A number of exercises in National Council on Economic Education publications, student workbooks, and textbooks should help students think about the consequences of inflation. 1. High rates of inflation mean that people and business have to take steps to protect their financial assets from inflation. The resources and time used to do so could be used to produce goods and services of value. Those goods and services given up are a true cost of inflation. 2. High rates of inflation discourage businesses planning and investment as inflation increases the difficulty of forecasting of prices and costs. As prices rise, people need more dollars to carry out their transactions. When more money is demanded, interest rates increase. Higher interest rates can cause investment spending to fall, as the cost of investing increases. The unpredictability associated with fluctuating interest rates makes customers less likely to sign longterm contracts as well. 3. The adage “inflation hurts lenders and helps borrowers” only applies if inflation is not expected. For example, interest rates normally increase in response to anticipated inflation. As a result, the lenders receive higher interest payments, part of which is compensation for the decrease in the value of the money lent. Borrowers have to pay higher interest rates and lose any advantage they may have from repaying loans with money that is not worth as much as it was prior to the inflation. 4. Inflation does reduce the purchasing power of money. 5. Inflation does redistribute income. On average, individuals' incomes do increase as inflation increases. However, some peoples' wages go up faster than inflation. Other wages are slower to adjust. People on fixed incomes such as pensions or whose salaries are slow to adjust are negatively affected by unexpected inflation. 13 Full employment Economists define the approximate unemployment rate, at which there are not upward or downward pressures on wages and price, as full employment rate of unemployment. If unemployment falls to level below the full employment rate, there will be upward pressure on wages and prices. If unemployment rises to a very high rate, there will downward pressure on wages and prices or wages and prices will remain steady. In the middle is a level, or more likely a range, where there is not pressure on wages and prices to rise or fall. Economists do not know for certain what that unemployment rate is, and even if they did, it does change over time. A current consensus estimate is that the full employment rate of unemployment is currently between 4.5 and 5.0 percent of the labor force being unemployed. That is if unemployment were to fall to 4.0 percent of the labor force, there will increased upward pressure on wages and that may cause prices to begin to increase. If unemployment were 6 percent, workers competing for jobs may cause wages to fall. Costs of producing fall and prices may fall. Or at least not increase as rapidly. Questions 1. If the annual rate of inflation is 4 percent a year and average income increases by 3 percent, what has happened to real average income? a. b. c. d. e. Decreased by 1 percent Decreased by 3 percent Increased by 1 percent Increased by 3 percent Increased by 7 percent 2. Suppose the CPI was 100 one year, and was 105 the next year. What is the approximate annual rate of inflation for those 12 months? a. 5 percent b. 10 percent 14 c. 10.5 percent d. 105 percent 3. Suppose the CPI was 200 in one year and 220 in the next year. What was the annual rate of inflation for those 12 months? a. 5 percent b. 10 percent c. 20 percent d. 120 percent e. 220 percent 4. Suppose a bicycle cost $200 in 1983 and a similar new bicycle costs $500? Given what you know about current price indexes, has the real cost of the bicycle increased or decreased? a. b. c. d. increased decreased stayed the same one cannot tell. 5. An automobile costs $15,000 in 1983. It costs $35,000 this year. What has happened to the price in 1983 dollars? a. b. c. d. increased decreased stayed the same one cannot tell. Answers to questions. 1. The correct answer is ‘a’. If income has increased by three percent and prices have increased by four percent, real incomes have had to decrease. An approximation is that real incomes have decreased by one percent. 15 2. The correct answer is ‘a’. The rate of increase in prices over the year can be calculated by dividing the increase in the index by the initial level of the index. That is (105 - 100) / 100 = .05 or 5 percent. That is an increase of 5 is 5 percent of a starting year index of 100. Because this is over a twelve-month period, it is an annual rate of inflation. 3. The correct answer is ‘b’. Prices have increased 10 percent. The change in the index is 20. The initial year is 200. Thus the annual inflation is 20 / 200 or 10 percent. 4. The correct answer is ‘a’. Prices have approximately doubled. The price of the bicycle has more than doubled. Thus, the real cost of the bicycle, the price in 1983 dollars, has increased. 5. The correct answer is ‘d’. Average prices have approximately doubled. The price of the automobile has more than doubled. Thus the price, in 1983 dollars, has increased. However, if the quality has increased than the automobile is not the same product and comparisons of prices are much more difficult. It may be that the automobile’s price in 1983 dollars has actually decreased once we adjust for the improvement in quality. Key Concepts Inflation Consumer price index (CPI) Core consumer price index Unemployment Real income Real GDP Costs of inflation Full employment Relevant National Economic Standards 16 The relevant national economic standards are numbers 18, 19, and 20. 10. Institutions evolve in market economies to help individuals and groups accomplish their goals. Banks, labor unions, corporations, legal systems, and not-for-profit organizations are examples of important institutions. A different kind of institution, clearly defined and enforced property rights, is essential to a market economy. Students will be able to use this knowledge to describe the roles of various economic institutions. 11. Money makes it easier to trade, borrow, save, invest, and compare the value of goods and services. Students will be able to use this knowledge to explain how their lives would be more difficult in a world with no money, or in a world where money sharply lost its value. 18. A nation's overall levels of income, employment, and prices are determined by the interaction of spending and production decisions made by all households, firms, government agencies, and others in the economy. Students will be able to use this knowledge to interpret media reports about current economic conditions and explain how these conditions can influence decisions made by consumers, producers, and government policy makers. 19. Unemployment imposes costs on individuals and nations. Unexpected inflation imposes costs on many people and benefits some others because it arbitrarily redistributes purchasing power. Inflation can reduce the rate of growth of national living standards because individuals and organizations use resources to protect themselves against the uncertainty of future prices. Students will be able to use this knowledge to make informed decisions by anticipating the consequences of inflation and unemployment. 17 20. Federal government budgetary policy and the Federal Reserve System's monetary policy influence the overall levels of employment, output, and prices. Students will be able to use this knowledge to anticipate the impact of federal government and Federal Reserve System macroeconomic policy decisions on themselves and others. Sources of Additional Activities Advanced Placement Economics: Macroeconomics. (National Council on Economic Education) Measuring Economic Performance. Lesson 4. Measuring and Understanding Inflation Focus on Economics: High School Economics (National Council on Economic Education) Lesson 18. Economics Ups and Downs Economics USA: A Resource Guide for Teachers Lesson 9: Inflation: How Did the Spiral Begin? High School Economics Courses: Teaching Strategies Lesson 16: The Trial of Ms. Ann Flation Handbook of Economic Lessons (California Council on Economic Education) Lesson 20. Plotting the Ups and Downs of the U.S. Economy All are available in Virtual Economics, An Interactive Center for Economic Education (National Council on Economic Education) or directly through the National Council on Economic Education. 18 Authors: Stephen Buckles Vanderbilt University 19