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Andre Schneider Proctor & Gamble Security Analysis Proctor & Gamble Current Statistics (as of February 27, 2006) Stock Data Price 52-Week High 52-Week Low Average Volume (3 Months) Market Capitalization $59.93 $62.09 $51.86 7,588,260 $197.12B Ratios (all per Share) P/E Ratio Earnings Dividend 23.03 $2.66 $1.03 Financial Strength Ratios Quick Current Long-Term D/E Debt to Equity Return on Equity (per Share) Return on Assets 0.49 0.81 74.69 141.01 34.47 13.69 Growth Percentages (5-Year Growth) Annual Growth Revenue Dividend Per Share Earnings Per Share Investment Recommendation: Hold 15.43% 7.27% 10.07% 15.93% Company Profile & Background Founded in 1837, Proctor and Gamble began as a company with less than 8000 dollars as the foundation upon which it rested. By 1859 the company had reached the $1 million sales mark. P&G quickly became a nationwide name when it advertised its first soap, Ivory in 1882. P&G also became a beacon of employee rights for the nation when it built its worker-friendly Ivory factory in 1886 and instituted one of the nation’s first profit-sharing programs to boost worker productivity and pride. In 1911, P&G expanded its product base to include the revolutionary Crisco shortening and by 1915 had began its long road of global expansion when it built its first production facility in Canada. Realizing the importance of understanding consumer habits, P&G created a market research department in 1924. In 1935, P&G acquired Philippine Manufacturing Company to begin its development in the Far East. By 1946 P&G had invented Tide, a detergent that far out performed any other detergent on the market. During the ‘40s and ‘50s numerous expansions and inventions continued to propel P&G towards its current position. Expansion into Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and France gave P&G a firm footing in the international markets. Acquisitions of Charmin and Folgers both occurred during the ‘50s and ‘60s. The ‘80s proved to be no different from any other decade for Proctor and Gamble, with acquisitions of Norwich Eaton Pharmaceuticals, Richardson-Vicks (Vicks respiratory products), and in 1987 celebrated its 150 year anniversary. At this point in time, P&G was the second oldest company of the 50 largest Fortune 500 companies. In 1989, acquisitions of Noxell (CoverGirl, Noxzema, and Clarion) allowed entry into the cosmetic market. A major international milestone occurred in 1993 when company sales outside the United States accounted for more than fifty percent of sales. The rest of the 1990’s consisted of a major restructuring, entry into the European tissue market, a management separation into four regional areas, the invention and implementation of Olean as well as the invention of breakthrough products like Febreeze, Dryel, and Swiffer. The new millennium has contributed greatly to the success of Proctor and Gamble. By 2002 P&G officially had 12 Billion Dollar Brands. Actonel, introduced in 2000 to treat postmenopausal osteoporosis, became P&G’s 13th Billion Dollar Brand by 2004 and is recognized as P&G’s first pharmaceutical brand to reach this level. 2005’s merger with Gillette has left P&G with an additional five Billion Dollar Brands. I will delve further into the implications of this merger at a later point. Executive Summary Summary of Analytical Conclusions After reviewing Proctor and Gamble’s 2005 Annual Report, it appears that they have continued the P&G legacy of constantly growing and expanding with new products and M&A. Every goal that Proctor and Gamble had set out to achieve over the past five years have either been met or exceeded. Considering the rising prices of commodities, price discounting and trade promotion that has occurred during FY2005, for Proctor and Gamble to achieve their lofty goals yet again is a testament to the exceptional product mix balance and diversification. Growth goals of 4-6% were set in 2000 and they sustained growth of over 7%. They have increased dividends over the past 5 years by an average of 9.36%, including increases of 13.4% and 10.7% in 2004 and 2005 respectively. In addition to this current dividend growth, P&G boasts an impressive 49 consecutive years of dividend growth. The goal for EPS growth during FY2005 was 10%+ and was easily met with a realized EPS growth of 11%. After merging with Gillette, their treasured “Billion Dollar Brands” increased to 22 total brands. The gains that both of these companies will gain from this merger is immense. Proctor and Gamble will gain Gillette’s 70% market share in blades and razors, the number one premium electric razor, as well as Oral-B’s 36% market share in toothbrushes. Gillette will gain access to P&G’s extensive distribution network into quickly developing markets like China, where Gillette will distribute to 2,000 different cities and 11,000 towns and villages which should add a significant amount of revenue to its 2004 sales of $10.5 Billion. Investment Recommendations Pros: Industry Leader Constant Innovation Steady Growth Highly balanced and diversified Large Dividend Growth Weak growth compared to industry How big can it get? Growth dependent on developing markets’ economies Cons: My investment recommendation of Hold is due largely to the size of this company. I firmly believe that this is a company that will contribute nicely to our portfolio over the long run. We have already done quite well with Proctor and Gamble, but with the consistency of the dividend growth plus the exceptional out performance of the S&P 500, our unrealized gain should continue to grow. The stock has split four times since late 1989 with the most recent occurring in June of 2004. This trend of a split every four years suggests that the growth of Proctor and Gamble will continue far into the future and the consistent appeal to smaller investors will also help to drive stock prices further. Economic and Industry Environment Industry’s Relation to Economy Product Life Cycle The difficulty that lies within the evaluation of Proctor and Gamble is its diversity. Its sector of Consumer Goods is easy to identify, but Cleaning Products hardly seems to encompass the industry that Proctor and Gamble represents. Cleaning Products only represent 1/3 of P&G’s sales and earnings, but for the sake of this analysis, Cleaning Products will be the comparison industry. Life Cycle Pattern The typical life cycle of a cleaning product is relatively short. Consumers constantly demand new and improved versions of old products. Consumers demand products to become increasingly easier to use, environmentally friendly, more potent and safer to consumers. Any company in this industry must place a heavy weight in R&D in order to stay ahead of their competitors. Sales Growth Potential Product Demand The only major area in which this industry can hope to grow further is in the developing markets of the world. The industrialized countries of the world will not increase the amount their economies spend on cleaning products; it will be the developing markets like China, Vietnam, and South Africa that will deliver sales growth to this stagnant industry. Supply of inputs for product While sales may not be increasing by any significant amount, raw material prices are. This will pose a significant threat to certain segments of this industry that rely heavily on commodities used to produce fabric care products. Proctor and Gamble’s Relation to Industry Domestic Competition Proctor and Gamble receives competition from dozens of companies none of which compare to the size or revenues of P&G. finance.yahoo.com suggests Johnson & Johnson as a competitor, but while they are similar in size, they only share their sector of consumer goods which is too broad to make a comparison. Johnson & Johnson has a majority of their product line involved with pharmaceuticals and health care goods. The competitor closest to P&G’s product mix is Colgate-Palmolive and the comparison for 2005 is listed below: (in millions) Net Sales Net Income Net Income Margin Market Cap. Dividend per Share (yield) P&G C-P $56,741 $11,396 $7,257 $1,351 12.80% 11.80% $197.92B $28.22B $1.12 (1.8%) $1.16 (2.1%) Market Share & Foreign Competition Proctor and Gamble is the global leader in all four of its core categories: Baby Care – greater than 35% Feminine Care – greater than 35% Fabric Care – greater than 30% Hair Care – greater than 20% (“extremely large and fragmented category”) Any foreign competition Proctor and Gamble encounters will most likely occur in the emerging markets of the world. Any of those competitors will most likely go out of business after Proctor and Gamble is introduced into the market, or given a competitor with an excellent product, an acquisition of the firm will occur as the past has proven time and time again. Company Position Market Information Marketing Fundamentals Proctor and Gamble focuses its marketing primarily upon a Holistic Marketing Strategy. Instead of P&G trying to sell a specific product or brand, it focuses on selling the company as a whole. This marketing strategy includes a significant departure from the traditional 30-second TV advertisement as it moves towards this holistic marketing approach. Product Development & R&D Proctor and Gamble devotion to R&D and product development is unprecedented. According to their annual report, “We invest nearly $2 billion a year in R&D, which is more than most of our direct competitors combined.” Clearly R&D is an extremely important component to this firm. Also, despite this enormous amount spent on R&D, over the past 5 years, R&D as a percentage of sales has decreased steadily even though the capital spent on R&D is at an all time high. Demographics Proctor and Gamble encompasses all demographics. From rural China, to New York City, P&G has products that appeal to every demographic on earth. Pricing & Price Stability Due to P&G’s role as a consumer products company, their pricing is contingent on raw materials and competition, but as the industry leader in so many categories, they are able to set prices at whatever levels are necessary to meet sales goals and revenue growth goals. Threat of Substitution Many of P&G’s goods have multiple substitutes, but many of their top selling brands do not because P&G strives to be an innovator on all fronts. They hold patents on many products that do not expire for many more years to come. This eliminates the possibility of substitutes for P&G’s top selling products. Production Economies of Scale Proctor and Gamble has achieved economies of scale through their worldwide production. Considering their sales of $56 billion, it is easy to deduce that they produce goods at the lowest possible cost per unit. Geographic Distribution Proctor and Gamble distributes approximately 50% of its goods in North America. The remainder is distributed throughout the world. Ten of P&G’s top 16 importing countries are billion dollar markets as well as 8 of the 16 representing developing markets. This balanced presence allows for P&G to ride out any unrest or business interruptions in any particular country without risking significant losses to the company. Image Legal Proceedings No outstanding lawsuits pending against P&G, although there are a number of lawsuits that P&G has filed over the last several years claiming patent infringement. Community Involvement Proctor and Gamble’s main corporate cause is P&G Live, Learn and Thrive. This program benefits the development of children in need from 0-13 years old. P&G donated $25 million in 2005 through their employee contribution P&G Fund. Over $80 million came directly from P&G to charitable efforts throughout the world. Through their PUR filtration system, P&G has decontaminated over 200 million liters of water into safe drinking water to help reduce illness in developing countries. After the tsunami in Indonesia, P&G donated enough filtration equipment to purify 150 million liters of water. Quality of Management Achievement of past goals In 2000, the management promised 4-6% sales growth, 10% EPS growth and 90% Free Cash Flow Productivity. The 2005 Annual Report stated that the 2005 growth numbers were 7% sales growth, 11% EPS growth and 90% FCF Productivity. Goals for Future P&G has increased their sales growth to 5-7% through 2010 and a continued 10% EPS growth. Financial Statement Analysis Accounting Procedures Inventory Valuation “Inventories are valued at cost, which is not in excess of current market prices. Productrelated inventories are primarily maintained on the first-in, first-out method. Minor amounts of product inventories, including certain cosmetics and commodities, are maintained on the last-in, first-out method. The cost of spare part inventories is maintained using the average cost method.” Depreciation “PP&E are recorded at cost reduced by accumulated depreciation. Depreciation expense is recognized over the assets’ estimated useful lives using the straight-line method. Machinery and equipment includes office furniture and equipment (15-year life), computer equipment and capitalized software (3 to 5-year lives) and manufacturing equipment (3 to 20-year lives). Buildings are depreciated over an estimated useful life of 40 years. Estimated useful lives are periodically reviewed, and where appropriate, changes are made prospectively. Where certain events or changes in operating conditions occur, asset lives may be adjusted and an impairment assessment may be performed on the recoverability of the carrying amounts. Investments Valuation “Investment securities consist of auction rate securities that approximate fair value and readily-marketable debt and equity securities that are classified as trading with unrealized gains or losses charged to earnings.” Goodwill and Other Intangibles “The cost of intangible assets with determinable useful lives is amortized to reflect the pattern of economic benefits consumed, principally on a straight line basis over the estimated periods benefited. Goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles, primarily brand names and trademarks, are not amortized, but are evaluated annually for impairment. Our impairment testing for goodwill is performed separately from our impairment testing of individual indefinite-lived intangibles. The annual evaluation for impairment of goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles is based on valuation models that incorporate internal projections of expected future cash flows and operating plans. We evaluate a number of factors to determine whether an indefinite life is appropriate, including the competitive environment, market share, brand history, operating plan and the macroeconomic environment of the countries in which the brands are sold. Where certain events or changes in operating conditions occur, indefinite-lived intangibles may be adjusted to a determinable life and an impairment assessment may be performed.” Pension Plans The most prevalent pension plan is the defined contribution plans which are all fully funded plans. Proctor & Gamble uses multiple factors to estimate the long-term expected rate of return on plan assets. Approximated pension benefits pay outs over the next several years are likely to range between $191 million in 2006 to $255 million in 2010. Financial Ratios Comparison to industry averages Industry: Cleaning Products Proctor & Gamble Industry Debt/Equity Ratio 0.48 0.92 Current Ratio 1.3 0.8 Quick Ratio 0.8 0.5 Sales (Quarter v. Year Ago Quarter) 26.90% 23.40% Net Income (YTD vs YTD) 13.20% 17.70% Net Income (Quarter v. Year Ago Quarter) 24.90% -2.20% Current P/E Ratio 22.9 22.3 Price/Sales Ratio 3.28 2.58 Price/Book Value 3.11 9.81 Return On Equity 12.00% 48.80% Return On Assets 5.70% 12.20% Return On Capital 8.00% 24.40% Financial Condition Growth Rates Price Ratios Investment Returns 06 an - 28 -J ul -0 5 04 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0% 05 2Fe b06 ec - 14 -D -0 5 25 -O ct 5Se p05 ul -0 5 17 -J -0 5 28 -M ay 5 Ap r-0 8- 05 eb - 17 -F % 18 12 -J ec - 24 -D 03 3 n04 Ju 7- ov - -0 M ay 20 -N 4- -0 2 16 -O ct -0 2 0% % 30 -M ar -0 1 -2 -8 11 -S ep 23 -F -4 eb 0 -0 % 1 Trend Analysis v. Economy 1 Year Price Performance v. S&P 500 Proctor & Gamble 16.521% % 13 8% S&P 500 5.508% 3% -3 % 5-Year Price Performance v. S&P 500 Proctor & Gamble 96.297% S&P 500 4.477% Both the 1-year and 5-year trend analyses versus the S&P 500 show extremely favorably for Proctor and Gamble. The 5-year return on Proctor and gamble is currently at its 5-Year high of 96.297%. This is a gross out performance of the S&P 500 which has managed a meager 4.477% return over the same 5-year period. The lack of performance of the S&P 500 is understandable considering the 2001-2003 recessionary period. P&G’s out performance of the S&P is a testament to how expansive its global position is. According to its website, Proctor and Gamble products touch the lives of human beings over two billion times per day around the world. Even when looking at the 1-year trend analysis, Proctor and Gamble has again grossly out performed the S&P 500 despite the bull market which has boosted all the indices to levels near pre-2001 levels. Proctor and Gamble, despite reaching consistent 52-week highs, has shown no signs of slowing down considering it beat the S&P by over 10%. Common Size Consolidated Financial Statements Procter and Gamble Company Annual Common Size Income Statement (in millions) 6/30/2005 56,741.00 Net Sales 27,804.00 Cost of Goods Sold 28,937.00 Gross Profit 6/30/2004 51,407.00 25,076.00 26,331.00 2005 100.00% 49.00% 51.00% 2004 100.00% 48.78% 51.22% 1,940.00 16,070.00 n/a 346 834 10,439.00 1,802.00 14,702.00 n/a 152 629 9,350.00 3.42% 28.32% 3.51% 28.60% 0.61% 1.47% 18.40% 0.30% 1.22% 18.19% 3,182.00 7,257.00 2,869.00 6,481.00 5.61% 12.79% 5.58% 12.61% R & D Expenditure Selling, General & Admin Expenses Depreciation & Amort. Non-Operating Income Interest Expense Income Before Taxes Prov. For Inc. Taxes Net Income Procter and Gamble Company Common Size Balance Sheet 6/30/2005 6/30/2004 2005 2004 Assets Cash Marketable Securities Receivables Total Inventories Raw Materials Work In Progress Finished Goods Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 6,389.00 1,744.00 4,185.00 5,006.00 1,424.00 350 3,232.00 3,005.00 20,329.00 4,232.00 1,660.00 4,062.00 4,400.00 1,191.00 340 2,869.00 2,761.00 17,115.00 10.38% 2.83% 6.80% 8.14% 2.31% 0.57% 5.25% 4.88% 33.04% Property, Plant & Equipment, Net Property, Plant & Equipment, Gross Accumulated Depreciation Deposits & Other Assets Total Assets 14,332.00 26,325.00 11,993.00 2,703.00 61,527.00 14,108.00 25,304.00 11,196.00 1,925.00 57,048.00 23.29% 42.79% 19.49% 4.39% 100.00% 7.42% 2.91% 7.12% 7.71% 2.09% 0.60% 5.03% 4.84% 30.00% 0.00% 24.73% 44.36% 19.63% 3.37% 100.00% Liabilities Notes Payable Accounts Payable Curr. Long-Term Debt Accrued Expense Income Taxes Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities 8,835.00 3,802.00 2,606.00 2,957.00 2,265.00 4,574.00 25,039.00 6,769.00 3,617.00 1,518.00 2,925.00 2,554.00 4,764.00 22,147.00 14.36% 6.18% 4.24% 4.81% 3.68% 7.43% 40.70% 11.87% 6.34% 2.66% 5.13% 4.48% 8.35% 38.82% Deferred Charges/Inc. Long-Term Debt Non-Curr. Capital Leases Other Long-Term Liab. Total Liabilities 2,894.00 12,614.00 273 3,230.00 44,050.00 2,261.00 12,302.00 252 2,808.00 39,770.00 4.70% 20.50% 0.44% 5.25% 71.59% 3.96% 21.56% 0.44% 4.92% 69.71% 2,473.00 2,544.00 3,142.00 2,425.00 13,204.00 13,611.00 -1,342.00 -3,260.00 17,477.00 17,278.00 61,527.00 57,048.00 in millions of USD 4.02% 5.11% 21.46% -2.18% 28.41% 100.00% 4.46% 4.25% 23.86% -5.71% 30.29% 100.00% Shareholder Equity Common Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Other Liabilities Total Shareholders Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity Cash Flow (in Billions) Cash Flow from Operating Activities Free Cash Flow 2005 $8.72 $6.54 2004 $9.36 $7.34 Financial Forecasts Revenue Forecasts According to P&G’s 2005 Annual Report, sales growth is expected to continue at 5-7% through 2010. Financial Forecasts from finance.yahoo.com are as follows: Avg. Estimate No. of Analysts Low Estimate High Estimate Year Ago Sales Sales Growth (year/est) 3.06.2006 Current Quarter 17.59B 9 17.29B 17.77B 14.29B 23.10% 6.06.2006 Next Quarter 17.66B 9 17.20B 17.92B N/A N/A 6.06.2006 Current Year 68.55B 12 67.68B 71.52B N/A N/A 6.07.2006 Next Year 74.85B 11 73.44B 76.70B 68.55B 9.20% Projection of future longer-term Earnings growth forecasts are provided by finance.yahoo.com: Avg. Estimate No. of Analysts Low Estimate High Estimate Year Ago EPS 3.06.2006 Current Quarter 0.61 16 0.59 0.62 0.59 6.06.2006 Next Quarter 0.55 15 0.53 0.58 0.52 6.06.2006 Current Year 2.62 18 2.59 2.66 2.53 6.07.2006 Next Year 3.01 17 2.95 3.06 2.62 Analysis of Risk Marketability Trading Location – New York Stock Exchange Average Volume (3-Month) – 7,767,090 Shares Total Risk Range - $58 - $72/Share Systematic Risk Proctor and Gamble is an extremely well diversified company that should be able to avoid risk factors involving individual countries but will be susceptible to global systematic risk factors such as global war and widespread terrorism. Correlation to market The 5-year correlation between P&G and the S&P 500 is .3981, as calculated in Excel using weekly price data. Beta to market The 5-year beta to market for P&G is .4511, as shown below, calculated in Excel using weekly price data. Proctor & Gamble versus S&P 500 9.00% = .4511 Proctor & Gamble 4.00% -11.00% -9.00% -7.00% -5.00% -3.00% -1.00% -1.00% -6.00% -11.00% S&P 500 1.00% 3.00% 5.00% 7.00% Fundamental Valuation Estimation of Required Rate of Return (k) k = 4.5% + .451(6.38%) k = 7.38% Historical Equity Premium – 6.38% Dividend Yield – 1.8% Various Model Valuation Dividend Discount Model Price = Dividend/(r-g) $1.12/(7.38%- 6%) $81.16 I don’t like this model in particular simply because the assumed growth must be continued into perpetuity. I cannot foresee P&G continuing to grow at 6% for more than 10 more years. Soon they will be Warren Buffet Valuation Model assuming discount rate (k) of Owner Earnings in 2005: Net Income Depreciation & Amortization Capital Expenditures Owner Earnings 7.38% $ $ $ $ 7,257.00 1,884.00 2,181.00 11,322.00 Prior Year Owner Earnings First Stage Growth Rate (add) Owner Earnings Discounted Value per annum 2005 $ 11,322.0 9.0% $ 12,341.0 $12,341.0 2006 $12,341.0 9.0% $13,451.7 $12,527.5 2007 $13,451.7 9.0% $14,662.3 $12,716.8 2008 $14,662.3 9.0% $15,981.9 $12,908.9 2009 $15,981.9 9.0% $17,420.3 $13,104.0 Prior Year Owner Earnings First Stage Growth Rate (add) Owner Earnings Discounted Value per annum 2010 $17,420.3 9.0% $18,988.1 $13,302.0 2011 $18,988.1 7.0% $20,317.3 $13,255.3 2012 $20,317.3 7.0% $21,739.5 $13,208.7 2013 $21,739.5 7.0% $23,261.3 $13,162.3 2014 $23,261.3 7.0% $24,889.6 $13,116.0 Sum of present value of owner earnings $129,642.4 Residual Value Owner Earnings in year 10 Second Stage Growth Rate (g) (add) Owner Earnings in year 11 Capitalization rate (k-g) Value at end of year 10 $ 24,889.6 6.50% $ 26,507.4 0.88% $ 3,021,128.70 Present Value of Residual Intrinsic Value of Company $1,482,655.96 $1,612,298.35 Shares outstanding assuming dilution Intrinsic Value per share 24729 $65.20 This model utilizes growth rates that are in par with an average between the company’s annual report and the analysts’ growth rate estimates. The initial 5-year growth rate of 9% is ambitious considering P&G’s goal of 5-7%. That growth rate is rationalized by P&G’s ability to beat its own goals over the last 5-years by more than one percent, it is also reduced from the 11% average growth analysts are expecting. Other Considerations Analyst Recommendations Recommendation Summary Mean Recommendation (this week): Mean Recommendation (last week): Change: Industry Mean: Sector Mean: S&P 500 Mean: 2.3 2.3 0 2.47 Price Target Summary Mean Target: 66.08 Median Target: 67 High Target: 72 Low Target: 58 No. of Brokers: 13 Institutional Following Holder BARCLAYS BANK PLC STATE STREET CORPORATION BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, INC VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE) NORTHERN TRUST CORPORATION WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLP FMR CORPORATION MELLON FINANCIAL CORPORATION JANUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC MARSICO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC Total Shares 122,677,529 104,090,237 100,000,000 80,042,637 56,021,888 50,405,818 48,600,576 43,063,619 42,386,469 40,332,000 687,620,773 % Out 3.73 3.16 3.04 2.43 1.7 1.53 1.48 1.31 1.29 1.23 20.9 Value* $7,294,405,874 $6,024,742,917 $5,788,000,000 $4,632,867,829 $3,242,546,877 $2,917,488,745 $2,813,001,338 $2,492,522,267 $2,453,328,825 $2,334,416,160 Reported 9.30.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 12.31.2005 It should be noted that less than 1% of the shares outstanding are held by insiders. Including mutual funds, institutions own 59% of outstanding shares of P&G. With this level of ownership based in institutions, price volatility should be minimal, as the beta suggests. Conclusions Proctor & Gamble is one of the strongest companies in the world. Their goals for expansion and global dominance are both attainable and reasonable. Their growth rate is slightly less than that for the “industry” P&G is in, but given their enormous size, the growth rates P&G has been able to sustain and project for the future are impressive to say the least. With 22 Billion dollar brands and another 13 brands above $500 million which are expected to reach the one billion mark within the next several years, P&G’s growth will continue and it will earn us high dividends and unrealized gains for many years to come. Investment Recommendation: Hold