Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1585237/ Iraq Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Government Formation and Oil Output Gains Bode Well For The Economy Iraq continues to face significant challenges, but the country has made some significant strides in recent months. Most importantly, the country finally has a coalition government, after nine months of political gridlock, which will set the stage for passing key legislation. Another remarkable success is the 10% rise in oil output reported by several international energy companies at their respective fields in recent months, which bodes well for the fiscal budget and the economy overall. That said, the country continues to face major obstacles, including political wrangling within the cabinet, ongoing disagreements between Baghdad and Arbil (the capital of the Kurdistan region), and security concerns. Overall, though, our outlook on the country for 2011 has brightened since our last quarterly report, and we expect the economy to expand at a healthy rate in the medium term. Iraq achieved a major political milestone in December 2010 with the formation of a cabinet led by incumbent Prime Minister Nouri alMaliki, though we expect political progress to remain slow and stability to remain fragile. Disagreements within the coalition were so great that candidates for three of the most important ministerial portfolios – interior, defence, and national security, could not be agreed upon. The premier decided to hold the positions temporarily until compromise candidates could be found. Furthermore, security risks have returned to the fore, as attacks on Iraqi security and police forces, religious groups, and politicians have become more prevalent in 2011. We expect Iraq’s economy to post healthy rates of growth over the medium term, expanding an average 6.3% per year through 2015. Returns on energy investment, healthy oil prices, and the promotion of non-hydrocarbon sectors of the economy are the primary factors underpinning our view. The telecommunications, industrial, construction, and power sectors are set to outperform, although for the time being we stress that the primary driver of growth will remain the hydrocarbon sector. Disputes between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are far from over, which bodes poorly for foreign investment. The main differences surround the oil industry, as there is not yet a hydrocarbons law or revenue-sharing legislation that dictate how oil contracts and revenues should be dealt with. A disagreement regarding border demarcation of the Kurdistan region is also creating tensions, and a planned census, which was to resolve the border issue, appears to have been postponed indefinitely. A further issue involves disputes regarding the allocation of electricity between the northern provinces and the rest of Iraq, which led to Kirkuk’s refusal to send electricity to the national grid for a few days in January 2011. Contents: Executive Summary Government Formation and Oil Output Gains Bode Well For The Economy Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Government One Month On: Stability Risks Remain While the Iraqi government has made some progress since its formation on December 21, we maintain our view that substantial challenges and risks lay ahead Table: Political Overview Long-Term Political Outlook A Brighter Outlook Iraq is at its most stable since the 2003 US -led invasion, but the numerous challenges it faces present significant risks that it could descend into chaos once again Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Growth To Depend On Continued Gains In Oil Sector Iraq’s economy will grow an average 6.0% per year in real terms through 2015, with rapid expansion in the oil and infrastructure sectors underpinning our view Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Balance of Payments Balance Of Payments On Stable Footing Elevated oil prices, along with output growth, will keep Iraq’s current account firmly in surplus going forward, and we forecast the current account surplus to average 2.5% of GDP through 2015 Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT Fiscal Policy Fiscal Gap To Widen Dramatically Iraq’s fiscal budget will fall deeply into deficit in 2011, and we project the shortfall to widen to 10.2% of GDP in 2011 from an estimated 3.6% in 2010 Table: FISCAL POLICY Inflation Inflation To Accelerate In 2 Iraq inflation will accelerate going forward, and we have revised up our 2011 average headline inflation forecast from 3.1% to 5.3% Table: MONETAR Y PO LIC Y Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Iraqi Economy To 2020 Greater Political Stability And Solid Growth We expect that Iraq will become an increasingly stable polity, setting the foundation for average real GDP growth of 6.0% between 2011 and 2020 Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Institutions Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating Infrastructure Table: Labour Force Quality Market Orientation Table: Middl e East and Af rica – Annual FDI Infl ows Operational Risk Table: Trade And Investment Ratings Table: Top export destinations Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONA L REA L GDP GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1585237/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. Page 1 of 2 Fax Order Form To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to 646-607-1907 (from USA) or +353-1-481-1716 (from Rest of World). If you have any questions please visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/contact/ Order Information Please verify that the product information is correct. Product Name: Iraq Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Web Address: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1585237/ Office Code: SCHL3FA7 Product Format Please select the product format and quantity you require: Quantity Electronic (PDF) Single User: USD 1106 Contact Information Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS Title: First Name: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Last Name: Email Address: * Job Title: Organisation: Address: City: Postal / Zip Code: Country: Phone Number: Fax Number: * Please refrain from using free email accounts when ordering (e.g. Yahoo, Hotmail, AOL) Ms Prof Page 2 of 2 Payment Information Please indicate the payment method you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box. Pay by credit card: You will receive an email with a link to a secure webpage to enter your credit card details. Pay by check: Please post the check, accompanied by this form, to: Research and Markets, Guinness Center, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. Pay by wire transfer: Please transfer funds to: Account number 833 130 83 Sort code 98-53-30 Swift code ULSBIE2D IBAN number IE78ULSB98533083313083 Bank Address Ulster Bank, 27-35 Main Street, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland. If you have a Marketing Code please enter it below: Marketing Code: Please note that by ordering from Research and Markets you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at http://www.researchandmarkets.com/info/terms.asp Please fax this form to: (646) 607-1907 or (646) 964-6609 - From USA +353-1-481-1716 or +353-1-653-1571 - From Rest of World