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Brochure More information from http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1585238/ Mozambique Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Description: Economy To Surge In Spite Of Inflation Risks! The scene is set for Mozambique to flourish over the coming years. The country boasts a relatively stable political climate, an improving business environment and plentiful natural resources, all of which will bode well for strong economic growth. Indeed, the Southern African country is increasingly prominent on the radars of international firms and investors, especially those interested in the extractive and agriculture industries. That said, it will not be smooth sailing and there are several economic, political and business environment risks that could hamper or derail progress altogether. While many regimes around the developing world will have been watching the recent revolutionary events in Egypt with fear, Mozambique’s government must have been particularly alarmed. Hosni Mubarak was one of the world’s most ubiquitous powers, having been in power in Egypt for thirty years with the backing of significant global and regional powers, including the United States and Israel, almost to the bitter end. His political demise is a crucial event, signalling that a critical mass of disaffected people can indeed effect seismic political change in Africa On the economic side, inflation risks pose the biggest threat to broad stability and these could stem from various sources. With food making up a large share of Mozambique’s consumer price basket and bread an important part of Mozambican diet, inflation is susceptible to wheat prices. Supply-side shocks in the grains market are almost impossible to predict but can never be ruled out. Oil prices are another risk to headline inflation, with Mozambique being an energy importer. At the time of writing, oil was trading at around the US $100. With the situation in the Egypt still uncertain and the possibility remaining of contagion into the rest of the Middle East, there are risks that oils price could spike sharply higher. A s for the business environment, deficient infrastructure is perhaps the biggest constraining factor with transport bottlenecks due to inadequate port facilities a particular concern. The authorities are cognisant of this, and have committed increasing the handling capacity of the port of Maputo to 12mn tonnes a year this year; a record 8.7mn tonnes passed through the facility in 2010. BMI’s Shipping team notes that this is just the beginning of planned expansions for the port, which is looking to capitalise on Mozambique’s projected growth in coal exports and economy at large. Contents: Executive Summary Economy To Surge In Spite Of Inflation Risks Chapter 1: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Ratings Domestic Politics Domestic Politics: Revolution Unlikely Although recent events in Egypt will have caused alarm within Mozambique’s government, a change of regime induced by mass protest appears unlikely, partly due to subsidies for the local bread price Table: Political Overview Chapter 2: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Ratings Economic Activity Economy To Surge On In Spite Of Tightening We maintain our view that the Mozambican economy will expand by 8.2% in 2011, slowing to a more sedate but still impressive 7.0% in 2012 Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Monetary Policy Inflation To Moderate In H Despite coming in at 17.8% in December 2010, the highest level in almost 10 years, we believe that Mozambican inflation will begin to decline in 2011 and we have forecast an end-of-period rate of 11.8% Table: MONETAR Y PO LIC Y Exchange Rate Policy MZN : Stability, With Modest Upside Potential Since finding a bottom at MZN38.25/US $ in the third quarter of 2010, the metical has made a strong recovery to trade at MZN31.10/US $ on February 14, implying 23.0% of gains from its nadir Table: EXCHAN GE RATE Regional Outlook Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast The Mozambican Economy To 2020 Strong Growth, But From Low Base Mozambique has witnessed consistently spectacular rates of real GDP growth since the end of the civil war in 1992, averaging 8.1% between 1993 and 2009, driven by the first generation of post-conflict reforms Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Chapter 4: Business Environment SWOT Analysis BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings Business Environment Outlook Institutions TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AN D OPERATION RIS K RATIN GS TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRA MEWOR K RATIN G Infrastructure TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUA LIT Y Market Orientation TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUA L FDI IN FLOWS TABLE: TRA DE AN D INVEST MENT RATIN GS Operational Risk Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions Global Outlook Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat Table: Global Assumptions TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS Ordering: Order Online - http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/1585238/ Order by Fax - using the form below Order by Post - print the order form below and send to Research and Markets, Guinness Centre, Taylors Lane, Dublin 8, Ireland. 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