Download Mozambique Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Brochure

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Mozambique Business Forecast Report Q2 2011
Description:
Economy To Surge In Spite Of Inflation Risks!
The scene is set for Mozambique to flourish over the coming years. The country boasts a relatively stable
political climate, an improving business environment and plentiful natural resources, all of which will bode
well for strong economic growth. Indeed, the Southern African country is increasingly prominent on the
radars of international firms and investors, especially those interested in the extractive and agriculture
industries.
That said, it will not be smooth sailing and there are several economic, political and business environment
risks that could hamper or derail progress altogether. While many regimes around the developing world will
have been watching the recent revolutionary events in Egypt with fear, Mozambique’s government must
have been particularly alarmed. Hosni Mubarak was one of the world’s most ubiquitous powers, having
been in power in Egypt for thirty years with the backing of significant global and regional powers, including
the United States and Israel, almost to the bitter end. His political demise is a crucial event, signalling that a
critical mass of disaffected people can indeed effect seismic political change in Africa
On the economic side, inflation risks pose the biggest threat to broad stability and these could stem from
various sources. With food making up a large share of Mozambique’s consumer price basket and bread an
important part of Mozambican diet, inflation is susceptible to wheat prices. Supply-side shocks in the grains
market are almost impossible to predict but can never be ruled out.
Oil prices are another risk to headline inflation, with Mozambique being an energy importer. At the time of
writing, oil was trading at around the US $100. With the situation in the Egypt still uncertain and the
possibility remaining of contagion into the rest of the Middle East, there are risks that oils price could spike
sharply higher. A s for the business environment, deficient infrastructure is perhaps the biggest constraining
factor with transport bottlenecks due to inadequate port facilities a particular concern. The authorities are
cognisant of this, and have committed increasing the handling capacity of the port of Maputo to 12mn
tonnes a year this year; a record 8.7mn tonnes passed through the facility in 2010. BMI’s Shipping team
notes that this is just the beginning of planned expansions for the port, which is looking to capitalise on
Mozambique’s projected growth in coal exports and economy at large.
Contents:
Executive Summary
Economy To Surge In Spite Of Inflation Risks
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Domestic Politics: Revolution Unlikely
Although recent events in Egypt will have caused alarm within Mozambique’s government, a change of
regime induced by mass protest appears unlikely, partly due to subsidies for the local bread price
Table: Political Overview
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Economy To Surge On In Spite Of Tightening
We maintain our view that the Mozambican economy will expand by 8.2% in 2011, slowing to a more sedate
but still impressive 7.0% in 2012
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Monetary Policy
Inflation To Moderate In H
Despite coming in at 17.8% in December 2010, the highest level in almost 10 years, we believe that
Mozambican inflation will begin to decline in 2011 and we have forecast an end-of-period rate of 11.8%
Table: MONETAR Y PO LIC Y
Exchange Rate Policy
MZN : Stability, With Modest Upside Potential
Since finding a bottom at MZN38.25/US $ in the third quarter of 2010, the metical has made a strong
recovery to trade at MZN31.10/US $ on February 14, implying 23.0% of gains from its nadir
Table: EXCHAN GE RATE
Regional Outlook
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Mozambican Economy To 2020
Strong Growth, But From Low Base
Mozambique has witnessed consistently spectacular rates of real GDP growth since the end of the civil war
in 1992, averaging 8.1% between 1993 and 2009, driven by the first generation of post-conflict reforms
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AN D OPERATION RIS K RATIN GS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRA MEWOR K RATIN G
Infrastructure
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUA LIT Y
Market Orientation
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUA L FDI IN FLOWS
TABLE: TRA DE AN D INVEST MENT RATIN GS
Operational Risk
Table: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat
Table: Global Assumptions
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS
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