Download Ghana Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 Brochure

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Ghana Business Forecast Report Q2 2011
Description:
A Transformative Year - The coming year should see a big transformation for the Ghanaian economy. The
onset of oil production should propel real GDP growth into the double digits, with rising cocoa production
and strong private investment also making an important contribution to economic activity. Yet, we are
mindful of certain weaknesses in the macroeconomic picture, primarily inflation and external debt levels.
Nevertheless, we retain our broad optimism towards Ghana, highlighting that it will be a major economic
outperformer over the coming years on both a regional and global level. We are forecasting real GDP growth
of 14.0% in 2011 and an annual average of 9.1% over 2012-2015. On the political front, we highlight
concerns over rising inflation and the potential implications for stability. While we are relatively sanguine in
this respect, we are congnisant of the risks stemming from pressurised consumer budgets. Indeed, a
number of Ghanaians took the streets of Accra in protest of the elevated cost of living in late January.
Yet, we believe the threat of further significant unrest is relatively muted: there is a relatively low tendency
for protests, the government is engaging heavily in pro-poor spending and there are visible infrastructural
improvements in the pipeline that should encourage the populace to believe that livelihoods are improving.
O n the economic front, recent developments bode well. Activity is picking up across a plethora of industries
and consumer confidence has seen a notable rise of late. Investment trends are also encouraging, with
services and manufacturing receiving strong interest from abroad. We further highlight the outlook for the
fiscal accounts. Following the release of the 2011 budget by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning,
we retain our expectation for Ghana’s budget deficit to narrow over the long term.
Finally, we focus on the key cocoa sector. We expect Ghanaian production to continue growing over the long
term, although this expansion will be somewhat constrained by government price controls. With regard to
the business environment, the picture is one of gradual improvement. The Ghanaian authorities are fasttracking the construction of a deep sea oil port and revamping a major rail link this year in a bid to maximise
the benefit derived from energy and mineral resources.
They also plan to modernise and expand Takoradi port to cater for the needs of the emerging oil & gas
industry. Broadly speaking, Ghana continues to attract business due to its favourable political climate and
the pro-business reforms of recent years, which include free trade zones and laws encouraging foreign
investment.
Contents:
Executive Summary
A Transformative Year
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
Risks Of Unrest Are Muted
Consumer budgets are under pressure following a sharp hike in domestic fuel prices, but we believe the
risks of social unrest are relatively muted
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil To Prove A Critical Test For The Polity
Ghana’s political risk profile is relatively favourable at present, at least in the context of West Africa
Table: Political Overview
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Stellar Growth Outlook, But With Risks
We maintain our upbeat outlook for real GDP growth in Ghana, forecasting a 14.0% expansion in 2011
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Fiscal Policy
Budget Deficit To Narrow Gradually
We see the budget deficit narrowing gradually over the coming five years, reaching 2.5% of GDP by 2015
from
4.7% of GDP in 2011
Table: FISCAL POLICY
Key Sector Outlook
Sweet Outlook For Cocoa Production
We expect Ghana’s cocoa production increase to lead our view of lower average prices over 2011 and 2012
Regional Economic Activity
SSA 2011 Economic Outlook: Strong Growth, Higher Inflation
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for strong growth in 2011, with our regional forecast standing at 5.2%
Table: Sub-Saharan Af rica: Policy Interest Rates
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Ghanaian Economy To 2020
Oil To Boost Growth
We are sanguine on Ghana’s growth prospects for 2011-2020, forecasting annual real GDP growth averaging
over 6.0% over the coming 10 years
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Institutions
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRA MEWORK RATING
Infrastructure
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
Market Orientation
TABLE: TRA DE AN D INVEST MENT RATIN GS
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2000-2008
Operational Risk
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat
Table: Global Assumptions
TABLE: GLOBAL & RE GIONA L REA L GDP GROWTH % CH G Y-O-Y
TABLE: CONSENSUS FORECASTS
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