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67‐301 Introduction to Probability and Statistics Spring 07 Instructor Asõkā Rāmanāyake Office: Swart 223 Office Hours: • Tuesday 10:20‐ 11:20 and 1:50‐2:50 • Wednesday 12:40 – 1:40 • Thursday 5:00‐6:00 pm (on D2L) If you cannot make my office hours, please feel free to make an appointment or use e‐mail to ask questions. Phone: 424‐2305 Email: [email protected]
Web: http://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/ramanaya/
Text: Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, 6th edition, by Jay L. Devore. Prerequisites: 67‐172, 67‐122 with a grade of ʺCʺ or above in each. Course Objectives By the conclusion of the course, I hope that you have acquired: • The ability to perform descriptive analyses of data • An understanding of the fundamental concepts of the mathematical theory of probability, including conditional probability, random variables, probability distributions, and expectation • The ability to perform a wide variety of probability calculations and derivations facility with approaching and solving practical problems and analyzing genuine data through probabilistic reasoning • An understanding of some fundamental statistical concepts related to probability, such as confidence, randomization, testing, and estimation • The ability to use a computer to analyze data and to conduct simulations to solve probability problems • Skills of communicating the results of statistical analyses graphically and verbally • A sense of the applicability of statistical and probabilistic thinking to everyday life and to a variety of academic fields Grading: Three tests (each 100 points)
Turned-in homework (100 points)
Quizzes (100 points)
Minitab projects + In-class activities + class participation (50 points)
Total
300
100
100
25
525
57%
19%
19%
5%
100%
Quizzes and Exams There will be six quizzes. Some of the quizzes will be group quizzes. Only students who have attended both previous 2 class periods will be allowed to work in groups during these quizzes. Tentative dates are listed on the schedule, but these may change without warning. Review solutions from previous homework and previous class material to prepare for quizzes. Some of the questions will be similar to the questions from homework. There will be absolutely no make‐ups of quizzes. However, the lowest quiz score will be dropped. Make‐up exams will be given only in special circumstances. Midterm exams can be made‐up for students who notify me (with appropriate proof) at least two days before the exam of their unavoidable absence. All the quizzes and exams are closed book. Calculators are allowed for all exams, however sharing them is not allowed. Minitab projects We will be using the Windows version of Minitab throughout this course. Minitab is available on the UWO network. No prior experience with Minitab is expected or needed — Minitab is very user‐friendly and you will learn as we go. The details of these will be given later. Attendance Attendance is mandatory. You are responsible for all the announcements, changes, course information, and topics that I cover in class. Grade Cut off (%) A 90 A/B 85 B 80 B/C 75 C 70 C/D 65 D 60 F < 60 Sample Questions and Answers To access Q&A Online resources, visit website: http://www.duxbury.com Study Hints The course moves at a rapid pace. It can be very difficult to catch up if you fall behind. My expectation is that you will spend approximately 8‐10 hours/week of your time on this class outside of the lecture time. You should reserve at least one hour per week to look over your notes, review for quizzes, and formulate questions about the material, in addition to time reading the textbook and working on assignments. It is important that you spend this time wisely and that you ask for help early when you are struggling. I and previous students in the class offer the following very simple but often‐ignored pieces of advice for doing well in the course: o It is best to read assigned chapters before lecture. o Always seek help if you are having difficulty. Donʹt get behind o Come to class; ask questions o Donʹt get overconfident o Do the homework daily. o Watching someone else solve problem you have not attempted will do little to improve your problem‐solving skills. o Take advantage of the office hours of your lecturer. o Have fun! o Think!! Guidelines for Homework •
Homework should be handed in on time; that is, at the beginning of the class in which they are due. You will be allowed a maximum of two late homework’s for the semester. These late homework sets need to be submitted at least 5 hours before the next class period. •
Use standard‐sized paper (8.5ʺ x 11ʺ), with no ʺfringeʺ running down the side as a result of the paper’s having been torn out of a spiral notebook. Multiple pages must be stapled together. Do not fold, tear, spit on, or otherwise ʺdog‐earʺ the pages. •
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Since the two lowest homework scores will be dropped, late homework will not be accepted, but I will review previous assignments with you if you complete them after the deadline. You are advised to not use this up too early in the semester and to start your assignment early in the week Use an easy to read format. Organize your work in a logical way. Do not crowd your work; leave some room for corrections and comments. Write legibly. Use sufficient space for each problem, with at least one blank line between one problem and the next. For each problem, all intermediate steps must be neatly written, and the problem number clearly marked. Written explanations must be included whenever appropriate. Graphs must be labeled, with the units on the axes (or the window) clearly marked. You are encouraged to work with other students in the course on the homework assignments, but the work you turn in must be your own. If I determine two assignments are too similar, neither student will receive credit. The main requirement for all problems is that you explain your answers. Often, questions may have more than one correct answer so several answers will be accepted as long as they are justified. You should also state any assumptions that you make. Soon you will be explaining your results to managers and people outside your research field, so you need to get used to explaining and backing up the numbers in English! Youʹll also be given partial credit for your work, so it is important to at least attempt each problem. Finally, feel free to ask help from me if needed