Download Bohai Rim Economic Growth and Financial Development Analysis

ORIENT ACADEMIC FORUM
Bohai Rim Economic Growth and Financial Development Analysis
JIN Shuying1, QI Shu2
1. School of Economics and Management Shenyang Aerospace University, P.R. China, 110136
2. Shenyang Radio &TV University, P.R. China, 110003
[email protected]
Abstract: Based on the analysis of previous research, financial development and economic growth are
mutually reinforcing. Northern key economic region such as the Bohai Sea region's economic growth
and financial development causes for concern. Paper on the Bohai Sea area on the scope of the
definition of the statistical analysis method, in general, and internal structure of the Bohai Sea region's
economic growth rate and level, but also on economic and financial level, the financial intermediary
market level and insurance reflect market conditions and other key indicators of financial development
analysis, economic growth reached the Bohai Sea region with the overall level of financial development
are closely related, the Bohai Rim area of financial linkage mechanism should be established to drive
the Bohai Sea area to enhance the overall level of financial development.
Keywords: Bohai Rim, economic growth, financial development
1 Introduction
In accordance with the economic point of view, economic growth contributed to raising the level of
financial development; and financial development further promote the development of economy,
financial markets and the development of the financial system ultimately affects the economic growth
mode and speed of economic growth plays a vital important role. In recent years, China has made great
development, but uneven economic development between regions has also led to the gap between
financial developments. Many scholars study demonstrated effective in promoting financial
development in economic growth. Chen Liuqin and Zeng Qingjiu (2003) said the financial development
of China's economic growth has a positive role in promoting. Wang Jingwu (2005) found that regional
financial development and economic growth in a close relationship between: there is a positive causal
relationship between the eastern and western regions of mutual inhibitory relationship exists. Zhang
Ping, Chen Fuzhong (2009) that indicators of financial development variables and economic
development are a long-term equilibrium relationship. Currently, the Bohai Sea region is still relatively
little research to analyze the Bohai Rim regional financial development and economic growth situation,
the development process for solving its financial problems exposed in the conduct of financial policies
and decision-making and further in-depth study of important practical significance.
2 The Scope of the Bohai Rim Definition
Bohai Rim region is the Liaodong Peninsula, Shandong Peninsula, the Bohai Sea coastal economic zone,
while providing radiation to Shanxi, Liaoning, Shandong and Inner Mongolia in the east. This article
referred to in the Bohai Sea region include Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Liaoning provinces a
total of two cities, according to the Bohai, conditions conducive to the Northeast Asian Regional
Cooperation and determined. Five provinces land area of about 515,000 square kilometers, accounting
for about 5.37% total land area, population 21,884 million, and accounting for 17.38% of the total
population. It is the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, other than the dynamic economic region,
is the important source of economic growth, including Beijing and Tianjin are north financial center and
financial center, the rapid economic development in Shandong Province, Hebei province has regional
advantages, Liaoning Province in northeast old industrial base, as the research object can reflect the
Bohai Sea region's financial development and economic growth.
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3 Bohai Rim Economic Growth Analysis
Since reform and opening, rapid economic development in the Bohai Sea region, in the proportion of the
total national economy significantly improved. Bohai Sea since 2000 into the period of high growth
economy, the country's economy becoming more and more important, the country has gradually
developed into one of the representative economic region, economic growth, GDP total of 2.2913
trillion yuan by the year 2000 increased to 7.7565 trillion yuan in 2008, the average annual growth rate
of 16.52%, higher than the national average growth rate of 10.47%. Shown in Table1, Bohai Rim
economic aggregate accounting for rising from 23.09% to 25.80% steady growth. Bohai Sea region after
2001 is mainly due to rapid economic growth in China's successful accession into the WTO accession to
the Bohai Sea region to enjoy the many favorable factors. Such as tax reduction, preferential policies
and so on. Bohai Rim in 2004 the economic growth rate reached 20.67%, creating the highest point in
history. It can be seen from Table 1, 2008, because of the financial crisis, the national GDP growth rate
of 13.3% from 2007 down to 8.9%, lower by 4.4 percentage points. The Bohai Sea area GDP growth
rate reached 18.89 percent, and remained stable compared to last year's momentum of growth; the
proportion of the country's total GDP increased year by year, starting in 2005 has reached more than a
quarter of the country. Within the region in the Bohai Rim, the fastest growing Tianjin and Shandong,
and eight 3.7-fold increases, followed by Beijing, Hebei and Liaoning, were 3.3, 3.2 and 2.9-fold.
Visible, Shandong and Beijing have long maintained a steady and relatively fast growth, the Bohai Rim
regional economic development impact of the growing importance of the national economy.
Table 1
year
GDP Bohai conditions 2000-2008
Unit: 100 million yuan
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
China
99215
109655
120333
135823
159878
183217
211924
249530
300670
Beijing
3161
3711
4330
5024
6060
6886
7861
9353
10488
Tianjin
1702
1919
2151
2578
3111
3698
4344
5050
6354
Liaoning
4669
5033
5458
6003
6672
8009
9251
11024
13462
Hebei
5044
5517
6018
6921
8478
10096
11660
13864
16189
Shandong
8337
9195
10276
12078
15022
18517
22077
25966
31072
Bohai Rim
The national GDP,
the proportion of
the Bohai Sea (%)
National
GDP
growth rate (%)
Bohai
GDP
growth rate (%)
22913
25374
28233
32604
39343
47206
55194
65257
77565
23.09
23.14
23.46
24
24.61
25.76
26.04
26.15
25.8
—
8.1
9.5
10.6
10.4
11.2
11.8
13.3
8.9
—
10.74
11.27
15.48
20.67
19.99
16.92
18.23
18.86
4 Bohai Analysis of Financial Development
Financial development not only includes the development of financial instruments, including the
development of financial markets and financial system development. Narrowly speaking, financial
development is relative to the real economy outside the financial activities, specifically including the
development of financial intermediation and financial market developments, the former is the main
financial activities, which are financial events. Financial development in the general performance for the
financial growth and the total size of the improvement and optimization of financial structures of
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financial development is studied from the perspective of the amount, where the amount of targeted
financial economic and financial level that is, the level of financial intermediary market, the current
situation of the insurance market analysis.
4.1Bohai Rim degree of economic and financial situation
Measure of a country's economic and financial level and total financial assets can be the ratio of GDP,
which is finance-related rate, which is a measure of the degree of financial development of integrated
indicators of more general use. In accordance with the definition of Goldsmith, financial interrelation
ratio refers to "a certain point in time the existing total financial assets (with some double-counting) and
the national wealth (physical assets plus net foreign assets) ratio." That is, the value of all financial
assets of all the physical assets (that is, national wealth) ratio of the value, where the deposits and loans
by financial institutions and with the ratio of GDP as a measure of financial indicators related to the rate.
According to the Bohai Statistical Yearbook of the three provinces and two cities on data consolidation,
are in Figure 1. According to Figure 1, from a vertical perspective, Beijing and Tianjin cities
financial-related rate of the overall trend is steadily rising, reflecting the Beijing and Tianjin, the Bohai
Sea as a financial center and financial center, its economic growth and continuing to draw financial
resources, increasing degree of economic and financial, but also to further promote economic growth.
Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong provinces are showing increasing trend changes after the fall, the highest
in the year 2003. Manifested as regional economic growth after 2000 has gradually increased the
economic and financial degree, to these provinces after 2003 shown a relative shortage of financial
resources trend. From the horizontal perspective, in 2000, Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong,
financial-related rates were 5.67,2.14,2.37,1.92 and 1.63, to 2008, then became 6.39,2.47,2.23,1.68 and
1.51, has been Supreme Beijing, Shandong minimum. Beijing 2000 related financial ratios are 3.48
times of Shandong, to 4.24 times in 2008 will become. This reflects the degree of economic and
financial lack of Shandong, the actual use of financial resources, weak capacity, the effects of radiation
by the Beijing less financial resources.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Beijing
Tianjin
Liaoning
Hebei
Shandong
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Figure 1 Bohai Rim finance-related rate of 2000-2008
4.2 Bohai level of financial intermediation development of the market
Traditional theory holds that measure the level of financial intermediation, the main market indicators of
the efficiency of conversion of savings to investment, the share of state-owned bank loans share of total
bank loans, non-state economy was the proportion of such loans. According to Harrod - Domar model of
economic growth, the determinants of economic growth formula:
G=
dY dY dK dY I dY θS
=
=
=
= EθS
Y
dK Y
dK Y dK Y
Know that an important factor in determining economic growth is one of transformation of savings to
investment ratio, in the case of other factors constant, the higher the faster economic growth. A country
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or region the ratio of savings to investment the higher the conversion, indicating the country or the
region's financial system is better, but instead, is lower. Deposit-loan ratio is a region to total deposits
and total loans ratio, to a certain extent, reflect the transformation efficiency savings to investment,
where the main analysis of this indicator.
According to the Bohai Sea region provinces and two cities in the Statistical Yearbook data, calculation
order, may be Figure 2.
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Beijing
Tianjin
Liaoning
Hebei
Sandong
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Figure 2, the three provinces and two cities around the Bohai deposit-loan ratio 2000-2008
From Figure 2 shows that all regions of the Bohai Sea deposit-loan ratio dropped in 2000 after showing
steady state of higher deposit and loan Tianjin and Shandong, Beijing and Hebei is lower. Reflect the
Bohai Sea region a large number of deposits within the backlog in the financial system, capital are not
effectively released inefficient operation of bank assets, the increase in savings can not be effectively
translated into increased investment to promote economic growth.
4.3 Development of Bohai Rim Insurance Market Analysis
Insurance market is an important part of financial institutions, in the process of financial development
plays an important role in the insurance market. Measure the degree of development of the insurance
market premium income the amount of use, can be clearly seen in the area of insurance market
development. As can be seen from Table 2, the Bohai Sea provinces and two cities in the decade
1999-2008, the Bohai Sea regions the proportion of premium income, GDP, the overall trend is upward,
but its share is still small. To the end of 2008, the Bohai Rim region the proportion of premium income,
GDP, the highest in Beijing, accounting for 5.59% and the lowest in Shandong, accounting for only
2.17%. This indicates that although the Bohai Sea region has been the insurance industry made great
progress, but because of the insurance market rather late, with banks, securities compared to the overall
size is relatively small. From the insurance varieties, types, too few, isomorphism is serious, in terms of
quantity and quality are difficult to meet the growing needs of the market. Concept from the people, the
general savings outweighing insurance, awareness of insurance is not high. In the insurance claim, the
more problems and disputes, non-standard operation, but also affected the insurance initiative. In
addition, the insurance agent misled caused the insurer to excessive consumption, or consumption of
dislocation, but also the public mistrust of insurance and aversion affected the insurance business
extensively. This indicates that the National Insurance Consumer demand can not be effectively released,
the insurance concept of consumption is not yet mature, and regulations related to the system is not
perfect, people not living in close relationship with insurance, life insurance really close to people's lack
of current insurance design can not satisfy the different industries and different sectors of the diverse
needs of insurance products.
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ORIENT ACADEMIC FORUM
Table 2 1999-2008, three provinces and two cities around the Bohai insurance income and the ratio of GDP
Unit: %
year
Beijing
Tianjin
Liaoning
Hebei
Shandong
1999
3.94
1.94
0.68
0.96
1.28
2000
2.81
1.85
1.05
1.12
1.33
2001
3.8
2.17
2.21
1.38
1.67
2002
5.24
3.02
2.8
1.86
2.18
2003
5.53
2.92
3.05
2.41
2.35
2004
4.61
2.60
3.08
2.42
2.11
2005
7.23
2.45
2.80
2.15
1.84
2006
5.23
2.42
2.74
2.19
1.79
2007
5.33
2.99
2.79
2.42
1.93
2008
5.59
2.76
3.24
2.97
2.17
5 Conclusions and Recommendations
Reform and opening up to the Bohai Sea region's rapid economic development, economic output in the
country occupies a pivotal position. Uneven economic development within the region, the fastest
economic growth in Shandong, Beijing has maintained steady and rapid growth, relatively slow growth
in Liaoning. Financial development, the degree of economic and financial (financial-related rate) is
much higher than other provinces and cities of Beijing, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong slightly;
financial intermediary market level (the conversion of savings to investment efficiency), Tianjin and
highest Shandong, Liaoning, middle, and finally Beijing; insurance market development, in addition to
Beijing, the fastest growing, was far ahead of advantages, followed by Liaoning, Shandong relatively
slow.
Thus, financial development in different regions is uneven; due to financial differences between regions
in different economic structure formed on the basis of different financial structures and financial
development affect its financial resources in the configuration space and distribution. Analysis, the
overall level of financial development and economic growth are closely related, but we can not just look
at a single target, in addition to financial correlation rate, deposit and lending rates, other than premiums,
should also consider the stock market, attracting foreign investment, private finance and so on.
To this end, the Bohai Sea region should be established financial linkage mechanism, promote the Bohai
Sea area to enhance the overall level of financial development, the formation of regional financial
coordination of the development of a new pattern of play to the combined effect of capital market and
financial resource allocation, enabling the Bohai Rim economic growth with strong financial support,
promote financial development, economic growth and investment growth in the transport mechanism is
more smooth, the Bohai Sea region to ensure long-term steady and rapid economic growth with quality,
thus enhancing the competitiveness of the Bohai Sea region.
References
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