Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
ADDITIONAL MITIGATION ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL UP TO 2030 (IES-BRASIL) Sectorial GHG Emissions in Brazil– 1990-2010 THE SCENARIOS GOVERNMENT PLAN SCENARIO (GPS) ADDITIONAL MITIGATION 1 (MA1&MA1+T) ADDITIONAL MITIGATION 2 (MA2&MA2+T) MEASURES ALREADY BEING IMPLEMENTED UNDER THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN EXPANSION OF MEASURES CONSIDERED IN THE CPG, AND ADDITIONAL MEASURES COSTING UP TO US$20 MtCO2e EARLY IMPLEMENTATION OR EXPANSION OF MEASURES FROM MA1, AND ADDITIONAL MEASURES COSTING UP TO US$100 MtCO2e TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE RESULTS: • The scenarios are exploratory, not normative, and not forecasts of the most probable future • They are resultant of a series of premises chosen by the experts and researchers involved in a participative manner • The Governmental Plan Scenario (GPS) was strongly based on the long-term National Energy Plan 2050 • GPS is NOT a least-cost scenario and NOT a BAU, already includes strong mitigation policies PREMISES 2030 ACROSS ALL SCENARIOS GOVERNMENTAL PLAN SCENARIO WORLD POPULATION: 8.3 BILLION BRAZILIAN POPULATION: 223 MILLION GROWTH OF GDP: 3.9% WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH: 3.2% p.a. GROWTH OF GDP PER CAPITA: 3.6% INVESTMENT/GDP: 21% EXCHANGE RATE: 2.2 BRL/US$ (2005 constant) TRADE SURPLUS ~ 0 OIL PRICE: US$85/BARREL (US$ 2012 constant) MARGINAL ABATEMENT COSTS CURVE 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 0 500 1000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 -50.00 75% do potencial de abatimento apresenta custo abaixo de 20 US$/tCO2e -100.00 5 GHG AVOIDED EMISSIONS, 2010-2030 (MtCO2e) Mitigation Actions / Sectors MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T AFOLU 657.4 2363.3 Agiculture + Cattle Raising 627.8 626.6 29.6 427.3 Planted Forests Charcoal from afforestation schemes 367.8 Atlantic Forest Restoration 941,6 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Mitigation Actions / Sectors TRANSPORT MODAL SHIFTS Urban Transport on wheels (BRTs, Bikes, electric vehicles) MA1 MA1+T MA2 MA2+T 84.5 506.9 84.5 125.4 Rail Urban Transport (Subways, Trams) 234.4 Freight Transport by Railways and Waterways 147.2 RENEWABLES 505.0 727.4 Ethanol (Transport) 301.3 278.7 431.3 530.4 Buildings 16.8 19.9 Biodiesel (Transport) 103.3 206.5 Oil Refineries, Steel and cement Industries 24.0 100.9 Power generation (Wind, Biomass, Hydro, Solar) 100.4 242.2 WASTE 596.7 608.4 TOTAL 2275 4736 Urban Transport Optimization Light vehicles 42.2 42.2 115.1 134.2 Heavy vehicles 233.2 233.2 SECTORIAL EMISSIONS IN 2030 ACROSS SCENARIOS (Mt CO2e) 1,666 1,303 1,308 1,023 Energy generated Energy demand: Household, services, agriculture & livestock Transport Industry 1,031 Waste 7 CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION (US$ billion -2005 constant) 75 238 For MA1, which includes lowercost measures, an investment of approximately US$ 75 billion would be necessary throughout the period 2015-2030 For MA2, which includes mitigation actions with a higher costs, an investment of approximately US$ 238 billion would be necessary throughout the period 2015-2030 CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION (US$ billion -2005 constant) 238 75 9.4 TOTAL INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION OVER THE PERIOD INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION IN 2030 37.7 In the year 2030 the investment in additional mitigation is US$ 9.4 billion in MA1, the equivalent to 0.37% of GDP. In MA2 this value is US$ 37.7 billion, equivalent to 1.46% of GDP in that same year. INVESTMENT IN MITIGATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP 9