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ADDITIONAL MITIGATION
ACTIONS AND INVESTMENTS
IN BRAZIL UP TO 2030
(IES-BRASIL)
Sectorial GHG Emissions in Brazil– 1990-2010
THE SCENARIOS
GOVERNMENT PLAN
SCENARIO (GPS)
ADDITIONAL MITIGATION
1 (MA1&MA1+T)
ADDITIONAL MITIGATION
2 (MA2&MA2+T)
MEASURES ALREADY
BEING IMPLEMENTED
UNDER THE NATIONAL
CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN
EXPANSION OF MEASURES
CONSIDERED IN THE CPG,
AND ADDITIONAL
MEASURES COSTING UP TO
US$20 MtCO2e
EARLY IMPLEMENTATION OR
EXPANSION OF MEASURES
FROM MA1, AND
ADDITIONAL MEASURES
COSTING UP TO US$100
MtCO2e
TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE RESULTS:
• The scenarios are exploratory, not normative, and not forecasts of the most probable future
• They are resultant of a series of premises chosen by the experts and researchers involved in a
participative manner
• The Governmental Plan Scenario (GPS) was strongly based on the long-term National Energy Plan 2050
• GPS is NOT a least-cost scenario and NOT a BAU, already includes strong mitigation policies
PREMISES 2030
ACROSS ALL SCENARIOS
GOVERNMENTAL PLAN SCENARIO
WORLD POPULATION: 8.3 BILLION
BRAZILIAN POPULATION: 223 MILLION
GROWTH OF GDP: 3.9%
WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH: 3.2% p.a.
GROWTH OF GDP PER CAPITA: 3.6%
INVESTMENT/GDP: 21%
EXCHANGE RATE: 2.2 BRL/US$ (2005 constant)
TRADE SURPLUS ~ 0
OIL PRICE: US$85/BARREL (US$ 2012 constant)
MARGINAL ABATEMENT COSTS CURVE
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
0
500
1000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
-50.00
75% do potencial de abatimento apresenta custo abaixo de 20 US$/tCO2e
-100.00
5
GHG AVOIDED EMISSIONS, 2010-2030 (MtCO2e)
Mitigation Actions
/ Sectors
MA1
MA1+T
MA2
MA2+T
AFOLU
657.4
2363.3
Agiculture + Cattle
Raising
627.8
626.6
29.6
427.3
Planted Forests
Charcoal from
afforestation schemes
367.8
Atlantic Forest
Restoration
941,6
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Mitigation Actions /
Sectors
TRANSPORT MODAL
SHIFTS
Urban Transport on
wheels (BRTs, Bikes,
electric vehicles)
MA1
MA1+T
MA2
MA2+T
84.5
506.9
84.5
125.4
Rail Urban Transport
(Subways, Trams)
234.4
Freight Transport by
Railways and Waterways
147.2
RENEWABLES
505.0
727.4
Ethanol (Transport)
301.3
278.7
431.3
530.4
Buildings
16.8
19.9
Biodiesel (Transport)
103.3
206.5
Oil Refineries, Steel and
cement Industries
24.0
100.9
Power generation (Wind,
Biomass, Hydro, Solar)
100.4
242.2
WASTE
596.7
608.4
TOTAL
2275
4736
Urban Transport
Optimization
Light vehicles
42.2
42.2
115.1
134.2
Heavy vehicles
233.2
233.2
SECTORIAL EMISSIONS IN 2030 ACROSS SCENARIOS (Mt CO2e)
1,666
1,303
1,308
1,023
Energy generated
Energy demand:
Household, services, agriculture & livestock
Transport
Industry
1,031
Waste
7
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION
(US$ billion -2005 constant)
75
238
For MA1, which includes lowercost measures, an investment of
approximately US$ 75 billion
would be necessary throughout
the period 2015-2030
For MA2, which includes
mitigation actions with a higher
costs, an investment of
approximately US$ 238 billion
would be necessary throughout
the period 2015-2030
CONCLUSIONS – SOCIAL & ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
INVESTMENTS IN ADDITIONAL MITIGATION
(US$ billion -2005 constant)
238
75
9.4
TOTAL INVESTMENT
IN MITIGATION
OVER THE PERIOD
INVESTMENT IN
MITIGATION IN
2030
37.7
In the year 2030 the
investment in additional
mitigation is US$ 9.4
billion in MA1, the
equivalent to 0.37% of
GDP. In MA2 this value is
US$ 37.7 billion,
equivalent to 1.46% of
GDP in that same year.
INVESTMENT IN
MITIGATION AS
PERCENTAGE OF GDP
9