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AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Instructor: Mark Heinen Location: Room 717 Phones 719.429.1539 (cell) E-mails: [email protected] , [email protected] Course Duration: Fall 2014 (86 each, 90 minute class periods) Resource Materials: • • • • • • • Primary text: Starnes, Tabor, Yates, and Moore. The Practice of Statistics. 5 th Edition, 2015 Secondary text: Triola, Mario F. Elementary Statistics. 10th Edition, 2006 Fathom 2 software from KCP Technologies, 2007 Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (various years) Stat Disk Software from http://www.statdisk.org/ Meaning from Data, Professor Michael Starbird, video series Texas Instrument tutorial videos on TI-84 and Nspire Course Overview AP Statistics will require you to apply most of the previous mathematics you have learned but (more importantly) will demand critical thinking skills to be successful. While instruction will typically be received individually, you should expect a number of projects that typically require small group work. These small groups will permit you to develop your interpersonal skills and expose you to the ideas and solutions proposed by others. You will honestly find that the ideas of other are often superior to your own individual ideas. Specifically, other students in your group will enhance your methodology and inferences skills. Teaching materials for the course will come from textbooks, classroom lectures, periodicals, videos, and the internet. Visit the high school website or see me for an exact course description. This course requires use of technology. It is a given that you are technologically proficient. (If not, I will make you so.) Visit my website regularly for updated assignment lists and data files used in projects. Submit ALL projects in MS Word format (with any Excel attachments) to my MSN e-mail address. Students are expected to secure the use of a TI-84 or a TI-Nspire calculator. Other scientific / statistical calculators are permitted. Some TI-84 instruction will be taught in class but in general, proper use of your calculator is your responsibility. See me for help after school. Typically, computers / laptops are permitted in class and are required for projects and some assignments. Proficient use of MS Excel and Fathom 2 is suggested. See me with questions about acquiring or using this software. Other Page 1 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 software such as Minitab is permitted. I will often use Mathcad for general computation and as a container for assignments. Projects / computer labs are also a major part of the course. Students complete three to four major projects / labs each semester. A few smaller projects are not shown on the course outline (below). Some of these projects are completed during class time, while others are completed outside of class. Some of the projects will be small group work. These projects require students to design surveys and experiments, gather data, analyze the data numerically and graphically, and apply inferential statistics to draw conclusions for a population. These projects must be submitted as professional word processed documents with all supporting calculations and computer files attached or as appendices. As the course progresses, the associated AP released questions will be reviewed. The unit examinations will be patterned after the AP exam and will consist of multiple choice and free response questions. Questions will be modeled after those found on the AP website or related materials. Students are recommended to visit the AP stats website regularly to take advantage of the site’s study materials. Specific classroom rules / expectations / notebook requirements will be a separate handout at the beginning of the course. Extensive review will be offeed prior to the Spring 2013 AP exam. Statistics requires you to bridge the gap between mathematical knowledge and real world application. Most importantly, statistics demands critically thinking through all parts of the problem solving process especially your conclusion(s). As a high school student, this will be one of the first courses where thinking is more important than doing. The days of just getting a correct answer are gone. The reasoning and logic of your answers is more important. Successfully completing this course will open your eyes to some of the stochastic truth and fallacies of the world. It will more than adequately prepare you for success in post-secondary education and make you one of the smartest dogs on the block. Course Outline and Content The course outline follows the four conceptual tools: • Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns • Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study • Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation • Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Page 2 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Week The outline and content are shown by unit/topic by week by class below: Major Topic (Unit) Minor Topic Intro 2 3 4 5 Unit 1 - Exploring Data (Describing patterns and departures from patterns) 1 Construction and interpreting graphical displays of univariate data Summarizing distribution of univariate data Comparing distributions of univariate data (dot plots, backto-back stem and leaf plots, parallel box plots, frequency diagrams) Exploring bivariate data Exploring categorical data Content "Is the die fair?" introductory example with exercises Dot plots, Stem and Leaf Plots Pareto and pie charts Exploring the TI 84 / Nspire calculators. Preparing lists and creating distributions Frequency Distributions, Histograms Relevance of center and spread, clusters and gaps, shape, outliers, and unusual features Creating and exploring frequency plots Cumulative frequency plots creation and exploration Measures of the center (mean, median, mode) Measuring spread (range, interquartile range, standard deviation) [Part 1] Measuring spread (range, interquartile range, standard deviation) [Part 2] Measuring position and relative standings (quartiles, percentiles, z-score introduction) Study of box plots (more) Comparing center and spread within and between distributions (day 1) Comparing center and spread within and between distributions (day 2) Comparing distribution shapes, clusters, gaps, outliers and unusual features Patterns in scatter plots Correlation and linearity Least squares regression line Least squares regression line Residual plots, outliers, and influential points Regression Variation and prediction intervals Transformations to achieve linearity ( logarithmic and power transformations) Excel Regression Computer Lab Frequency tables and bar charts. Marginal and joint frequency in 2-way tables Conditional relative frequencies. Using bar charts to compare distributions Page 3 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus 6 Fall 2014 Unit Assessment 7 8 9 Unit 2 - Sampling and Experiment Design Methods of Data Collection Planning and conducting surveys Planning and conducting experiments Conclusions from observation, surveys, and experiments 10 11 12 Unit 3 - Anticipating Patterns (Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation) Unit Assessment Probability Combining independent random variables The Normal Distribution Unit (Exploring Data) Review Unit (Exploring Data) Test Overview of methods of data collection: Census, Survey, Experiment, Observational study Characteristics of a well designed & conducted survey Population, samples, and random selection Sources of bias in sampling and surveys Sampling methods: simple random sampling and stratified random sampling Treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignment, and replication Sources of bias and confounding, placebo effect and blinding Completely randomized design Randomized block design, including matched pairs design Multistage Sampling In-class student analysis of different surveys / experiments to generalize results and types of conclusions. Student presentation of survey and experiment projects Unit (Sampling and experiment design) Review Unit (Sampling and experiment design) Test Interpreting Probability (includes long run relative frequencies) Basic probability concepts and "Law of large numbers" concept Addition and multiplication rules Conditional probability and independence, Counting Basics: permutations and combinations Simulation of random behavior and probability distributions. Introduction to Excel use in simulation Discrete random variables and the binomial and Poisson distributions Expected value (mean) and SD of a random variable Independent vs. dependent variables Mean and SD for sums and differences of independent variables Properties and tables of the Normal Distribution. Introduction to the Standard Normal Distribution (Z) Page 4 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Sampling Distributions 13 14 15 16 17 Unit 4 - Statistical Inference (estimating population parameters and testing hypothesis) Unit Assessment Estimating Population Parameters (point estimators & confident intervals) The normal distribution as a model for measurements. Application of the Z distribution. Assessing normality. Sampling distribution of sample proportion Sampling distribution of sample mean Central Limit Theorem development and implication Sampling distribution of the difference between two independent proportions / means Simulation of sampling distributions Student t distribution description and application examples Chi-square distribution description and applications examples Unit (Anticipating Patterns) Review Unit (Anticipating Patterns) Test Overview of estimating population parameters and margin of errors. Logic of confidence intervals Investigation of point estimators , unbiasedness, and variability Estimating a population proportion Estimating a population mean (standard deviation known) Estimating a population mean (standard deviation NOT known) Confidence Interval for population variance and sample size for calculating population mean and variance Confidence interval for a difference between 2 proportions Confidence interval for the difference of two means (paired and unpaired) Mid-Unit Review (Estimating Population Parameters) Mid-Unit Assessment Tests of Significance Mid-Unit Test (Estimating Population Parameters) Overview of Hypotheses Testing. Logic of hypotheses testing (part 1) Logic of hypotheses testing (part 2) Sample test for a proportion Hypothesis test for a mean (sigma known) Hypothesis test for a mean (sigma NOT known) Testing a claim about standard deviation or variance. Sample test for a difference between two proportions Page 5 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Hypothesis test for a difference between two means (paired and unpaired) Inferences from Matched Pairs Chi-square test for goodness of fit, homogeneity of proportions, and independence (1 and 2 way) Test for the slope of a least-squares regression line Confidence interval for the slope of a least-squares regression line 18 Unit Assessment Unit (statistical inference) Test Page 6 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Page 7 of 8 AP Statistics Syllabus Fall 2014 Page 8 of 8