Download Uang dan Inflasi Macro Economics

ECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
MICROECONOMICS
What Macroeconomist Study?
Why have some countries experienced rapid growth in incomes over the past
century while others stay mired in poverty?
Why do some countries have high rates inflation while others maintain stable
price?
Why do all countries experience recessions and depressions – recurrent
periods of falling income and rising unemployment and how government policy
reduce the frequency and severity of these episodes?
Macroeconomist, the study of the economy as a whole, attempts to answer
these and many related questions
Theory as Model Building
Models are simplified theories that show the key
relationships among economic variables
Exogenous
variables
Economic
model
Endogenous
variables
Figure 1. The Working of an Economic Model
TUJUANMODEL:
MENUNJUKKAN BAGAIMANA VARIABEL
EKSOGEN MEMPENGARUHI VARIABEL ENDOGEN
Qd = f ( P, Y)
Qs = f ( P, Pm)
Qs = Qd
P
Supply
Market Equilibrium
Demand
Q
Figure 1.2 The Model Supply and Demand
P
(a). A Shift in Demand
S
P2
P1
D1
D2
Q
Q1
Q2
(b) A Shift in Supply
P
S2
S1
P2
P1
D1
Q2
Q1
Q
Using Function to Express Relationships Among Variables
A function is a mathematical concept that show one variable
depends on a set of other variables
QD = F (P, Y)
QD = 60 – 10P + 2Y
Macroeconomics is the study of the
economy as a whole - including growth in
income, changes in prices and rate of
unemployment. Macroeconomist attempt both
to explain economic events and to devise
policies to improve economic performance
To understand the economy, economist use model –
theories that simplify reality in order to reveal show how
exogenous variable influence endogenous variables. The
art in the science of economics is in judging whether a
model captures the important economic relationships for
the matter at hand. Because no single model can answer
all questions, macroeconomist use different model to look
at different issues
NATIONAL-INCOME ACCOUNTING: GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND THE PRICE LEVEL
Chapter 2 (Macroeconomics: A Modern Approach)
A.Flows and Stocks Variables
B.Some Frequently Used Terms
(i). Output (Product), Income & Expenditure
(ii). Domestic and National
(iii). Gross and Net
(iv). Markets Price and Factor Cost
(v). Nominal and Real
C. Aggregate Income, Output (Product) & Expenditure
(i). The Simplest Economy: Households & Firms
Factors of Production
Income (Y)
Firms
Households
Consumers Expenditure
Goods & Services
Figure 4. Real and Money Flows in the Simplest Economy
Money flow: Continuous lines
Real flow: Dash lines
(ii). Saving by Households
Incomes
Factors of Production
Incomes
Capital Goods
Factors of Production
HOUSEHOLDS
Saving
FIRMS C
Consumers Goods
FIRMS K
Investment Expenditure
Consumers Expenditure
Figure 5. Real & Money Flows in Economy with Saving & Investment
Incomes (Y)
Factors of Production
H
F
Goods & Services
Saving
Investment
Consumers Expenditures (C)
Figure 6. Real & Money Flow in an Economy with Saving &
Investment Simplified
Y=C+I
Y=C+S
S=I
Y
H
S
F
C
I
Figure 7. The Money Flows in an Economy with Saving and
Investment – A More Abstract Representation
(iii). Government Expenditure and Taxes
H
F
GOV
T
G
S
I
(iv). The Rest of the World
EX
H
T
R
F
GOV
G
S
I
IM
Y=C+I+G
Y=C+S+T
Y = C + I + G + EX - IM
I + G + EX = S + T + IM
(I-S) + (G – T) + (EX – IM) = O
D. Measuring Aggregate Income
(i). The Expenditure Approach
(ii). The Factor Income Approach
(iii). The Output Approach
MEASURING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
GDP
A MEASURE OF THE VALUE OF ALL GOODS &
SERVICES NEWLY PRODUCED IN AN ECONOMY
DURING A SPECIFIED PERIOD OF TIME
WHAT?
WHRE?
WHEN?
GDP VS GNP
THREE WAYS OF MEASURING GDP
1. THE PRODUCTION APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP
2. THE SPENDING APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP
3. THE INCOME APPROACH TO MEASURING GDP
MANFAAT DIKETAHUINYA GDP:
1. MENGUKUR PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI
2. MENGETAHUI STRUKTUR EKONOMI
3. MEMBANDINGKAN PEREKONOMIAN ANTAR NEGARA
What Determines the Demand for Goods & Services?
The four component of GDP:
1. Consumption (C)
2. Investment (I)
3. Government purchases (G)
4. Net Export (NX)
Y = C + I + G + (X - M)
Consumption
C = C(Y-T)
MPC
C
0,70
Consumption function
MPC
Y- T
The Consumption Function
TEORI-TEORI KONSUMSI
1. John Maynard Keynes and the Consumption
Function
2. Irving Fisher and Inter temporal Choice
3. Franco Modigliani and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis
4. Milton Friedman and the Permanent-Income
Hypothesis
5. Robert Hall and the Random-Walk Hypothesis
Investment
I = I (r)
The nominal interest rate
The real interest rate
r
I = I (r)
I
The investment Function
Government Purchases
a balance budget
G=T
G=G
20% of GDP
T=T
Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and Services:
The Supply and Demand for the Economy Output
Y=C+I+G
C = C(Y- T)
Y = F(K, L)
=Y
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G
I = I(r)
Y = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G
G=G
T=T
Equilibrium in the Financial Markets:
The Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds
Y–C–G=I
S = (Y-T-C) + (T- G) = I
Y- C(Y-T) - G = I(r)
Y- C(Y-T) - G = I(r)
S = I(r)
Real interest rate
Saving (S)
Equilibrium r
Desired investment, I(r)
S
Investment, Saving
Saving, Investment and the Interest Rate
Changes in Saving: The effects of Fiscal Policy
MONETARY THEORY AND POLICY
APAKAH TEORI MONETER?
TEORI MONETER: TEORI MENGENAI PASAR UANG
TEORI MENGENAI PERMINTAAN (MD)
PENAWARAN UANG (MS)
INTI TEORI MONETER: ANALISIS TENTANG FAKTOR2
APA YG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN AKAN UANG
(DEMAND FOR MONEY) DAN FAKTOR2 APA YG
MEMPENGARUHI PENAWARAN UANG (SUPPLY OF
MONEY)
PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN DI PASAR UANG
AKAN MENENTUKAN HARGA:
1. TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA
2. TINGKAT HARGA UMUM
KEYNES & KEYNESIANS
CLASSIC & MONETARIST
IMPLIKASI TEROTIS & KEBIJAKAN YG BERBEDA
MENGAPA PERUBAHAN KONDISI PASAR UANG YANG
DICERMINKAN OLEH PERUBAHAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA
ATAU TINGKAT HARGA PENTING ????
DEFINING MONEY BY ITS FUNCTIONS:
1. MEANS OF EXCHANGE (PAYMENT)
2. MEASURE OF VALUE
3. THE UNIT OF ACCOUNT
4. THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH
TEORI KUANTITAS & KEYNESIANS SEPAKAT MENGENAI
THE STORE OF VALUE OR STORE OF WEALTH:
KEPUTUSAN MENGENAI BERAPA BESAR UANG TUNAI YG KITA
PEGANG ATAU BERAPA BESAR SALDO POS “KAS” YG KITA
INGINKAN DLM NERACA KITA. MERUPAKAN KEPUTUSAN
EKONOMIS YG KITA DASARKAN ATAS UNTUNG-RUGI.
KEPUTUSAN TENTANG: SALDO KAS VS MEMBELI SURAT
BERHARGA (BONDS OR STOCKS)
DEFINISI UANG MENURUT PENCIPTANYA:
(1). MONEY BASE (RESERVE MONEY OR HIGH-POWER MONEY),
(2). M1= KARTAL +GIRAL) & (3). M2 = M1 + QUASI MONEY
KESEIMBANGAN PASAR UANG TERJADI JIKA:
MS = MD
MS = MONEY SUPPLY
MS = f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B
MS = f (Y, rKRDT, rDEPO,A).B (X1, X2,….Xn)
UANG PRIMER: MONETARY BASE (B)
(ALN-PLN) + (TP-DP) + (TB) + (AL-PL) = C + R = B = MO
FAKTOR2 YG MEMPENGARUHI UANG PRIMER
TABEL 1.1 NERACA KONSOLIDASI
OTORITAS MONETER
AKTIVA
AKTIVA LUAR NEGERI (ALN)
TAGIHAN PADA PEMERINTAH (TP)
TAGIHAN PADA BANK-BANK UMUM (TB)
AKTIVA LAIN (AL)
PASIVA
UANG KARTAL YG ADA DIMASYARAKAT (C)
CADANGAN BANK UMUM (R)
DEPOSITO PEMERINTAH (DP)
PASIVA LUAR NEGERI (PLN)
PASIVA LAIN (PL)
ANGKA PENGGANDA UANG: MONEY MULTIPLIER (m)
MS = mB
CP = mc B
DD = md B
M1 = m1 B
QM = mq B
M2 = m2 B
m = B/ MS
PENCIPTAAN KOMPONEN UANG BEREDAR
OLEH SISTEM PERBANKAN
SC = TPSb + TPPb = mb.B
KETERANGAN:
mb = ANGKA PENGGANDA AKTIVA BPUG
TPSb = TAGIHAN PADA SEKTOR PEMERINTAH
TPPb = TAGIHAN PADA PERUSAHAAN &PERORANGAN
THE DEMAND FOR MONEY
THE QUANTITY THEORY 0F MONEY AND CAMRIDGE APROACH
MV = PT
IRVING FISHER
MV = PY
CAMBRIDGE APROACH
Y = GDP REAL
Md = 1/V.PY
V = 1/k
Md = k PY
PENDAPATAN NASIONAL RIIL (Y) & k ADALAH KOSTAN
THE INTEREST RATE AS A DETERMINANT OF MONEY DEMAND
KEYNES (1936) INTRODUCE S THREE MOTIVESS FOR
HOLDING MONEY
1. A TRANSSACTION MOTIVE (BUSSINES MOTIVE): Mt
2. A PRECAUTIONARY MOTIVE (Mp)
3. A SPECULATIVE MOTIVE (Ms)
Mt + Mp = f (Y)
Ms = f (r)
K=rP
P = K/r
HOW THE QUANTITY OF MONEY IS CONTROLLED?
THE QUANTITY OF MONEY A VAILABLE IN AN
ECONOMY IS CALLED THE MONEY SUPPLY (MS)
THE CONTROL OVER THE MONEY SUPPLY IS
CALLED MONETARY POLICY
IN INDONESIA & MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, MONETARY
POLICY IS DELEGATED TO INDEPENDENT INSTITUTION
CALLED THE CENTRAL BANK (BI)
UU NO.23 TAHUN 1999 & UU NO.3 TAHUN 2004
INFLATION & MONEY GROWTH
SEIGNIORAGE: THE REVENUE FROM PRINTING MONEY
INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
INTEREST RATES: NOMINAL & REAL
r=i-π
i=r+π
Fisher equation
The nominal interest rate can change for two reasons: because the real
interest rate changes or because the inflation rate changes
The Quantity Theory of Money: the rate of money
growth determines the rate of inflation
The Fisher equation: the real interest rate & the inflation
rate together to determine the nominal interest rate
The Quantity Theory of Money & The Fisher Equation together
tell us how money growth affects the nominal interest rate
According the Quantity theory: an increase in the rate of money growth
of 1 percent cause a 1 percent increase in the rate of inflation. According
to the Fisher Equation: a 1 percent increase in the rate of inflation in turn
causes a 1 percent increase in the nominal interest rate
The One-for-One relation between the inflation rate and the
nominal interest rate is called the Fisher Effect
Two Real Interest Rates: Ex Ante & Ex Post
The ex ante real interest rate: Tingkat bunga riil yg diharapkan
pemberi pinjaman & peminjam ketika kesepakatan dibuat
The ex post real interest rate: Tingkat bunga riil yg terealisasi
secara nyata
Instruments
Transmissions Mechanism
Monetary Policy
Operational
Target
Inflation Targeting
Intermediate
Target
JANGKAR
NOMINAL
SKEMA 1. KERANGKA OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Final
Target
SISTEM OPERASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Quantity Approach: TEORI KUANTITAS: MV = PT
Interest Rate or Price Approach: TEORI Keynesians
INSTRUMEN-INSTRUMEN: LANGSUNG & TIDAK LANGSUNG
INSTRUMEN TDK LANGSUNG:
1. OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT)
2. GIRO WAJIB MINIMUM
3. TINGKAT BUNGA DISKONTO
4. INSTRUMEN PERSUASIF
SECARA UMUM: MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER
MENGGAMBARKAN BAGAIMANA KEBIJAKAN MONETER OLEH
BANK SENTRAL DPT MEMPENGARUHI AKTIVITAS EK &
KEUANGAN HINGGA TERWUJUDNYA FINAL TARGET (INFLASI)
SECARA SPESIFIK Taylor (1995): The process through
which monetary policy decision are transmitted into
changes in real GDP and inflation
KEBIJAKAN
MONETER
?
TUJUAN
AKHIR:
INFLASI
SKEMA 2. MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER “ Black Box”
JALUR-JALUR MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEB. MONETER
1. JALUR UANG (Money Channel)
2. JALUR SUKU BUNGA ( Interest rate Channel)
3. JALUR NILAI TUKAR ( Exchange Rate Channel)
4. JALUR HARGA ASET ( Asset Price Channel)
5. JALUR KREDIT (Credit Channel)
6. JALUR EKSPEKTASI ( Expectation Channel)
Inflation Targeting Framework
KARATERISTIK UTAMA: MODEL ITF
DIJADIKANNYA TARGET INFLASI SEBAGAI
TUJUAN POKOK KEB. MONETER. SASARAN YG
HARUS DICAPAI ADALAH INFLASI YG RENDAH &
STABIL (MASSON ET AL,1998)
OPEN ECONOMY
DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA PENGELUARAN U PERIODE TERTENTU
TIDK PERLU SAMA DGN HASIL PRODUKSI BARANG & JASA
PERAN EKSPOR NETO = 60% THDP PDB
DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERTUTUP, SELURUH OUTPUT DIJUAL DI PASAR
DOMESTIK & PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 3 KOMPONEN: C, I & G.
DLM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA SEBAGIAN OUTPUT DI EKSPOR & DI
JUAL DI PASAR DOMESTIK, PENGELUARAN DIBAGI MENJADI 4 BAGIAN:
C, I, G & EX
Y = C + I + G + EX
Y = C + I + G + EX - IM
Y = C + I + G + NX
NX = Y - (C + I + G )
Y – C – G = I + NX
Y – C – G = TABUNGAN NASIONAL (S)
Y – T – C = TABUNGAN PERSEORANGAN
T – G = TABUNGAN PEMERINTAH
S = I + NX
S - I = NX
PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER
r
LM1
r1
A
LM2
B
r2
IS
Y1
Y2
Y
GAMBAR: PENINGKATAN MONEY SUPPLY (MS)
INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y2
Y1
Y
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: MS KONSTAN
INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y2
Y1
Y
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: MS KONSTAN
INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM2
LM1
r
IS1
IS2
Y2
Y1
Y
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: r KONSTAN
INTERAKSI KEB. FISKAL VS MONETER
r
LM1
LM2
r1
r2
IS1
IS2
Y
Y
DAMPAK KENAIKAN PAJAK: Y KONSTAN
PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI
PASAL 7 AYAT (1) UU N0.3/2004 TENTANG BI
TUJUAN BI ADALAH MENCAPAI & MEMELIHARA KESTABILAN NILAI RUPIAH.
KESTABILAN NILAI RUPIAH BISA DILIHAT DARI
SISI
INTERNAL YAITU
INFLASI
&
SISI
EKSTERNAL YAITU STABLITAS NILAI TUKAR
INFLATION
TARGETING
FREE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE
EXCHANGE RATE PASS TRHOUGH: PENJUMLAHAN
DIRECT & INDIRECT PASS-THROUGH EFFECT
JALUR TRANSMISI INFLASI YG BERASAL DARI
FAKTOR EKSTERNAL ADA 2, YAITU: Direct Pass-
Through Effect & Indirect Pass-Through Effect
Direct Pass-Through Effect: JALUR TRANSMIS “DAMPAK
LANGSUNG” NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI MELALUI BARANGBARANG IMPOR (IMPORTED INFLATION): DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR
BARANG KONSUMSI DINAMAKAN First Direct Pass-Through Effect,
SEDANGKAN DAMPAK MELALUI IMPOR BAHAN BAKU & BARANG MODAL
DINAMAKAN: Second Direct Pass-Through Effect
Indirect Pass-Through Effect:
TRANSMISI TIDAK LANGSUNG
PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI ADALAH MELALUI DEMAN
FULL, DIMANA KENAIKAN HARGA LUAR NEGERI ATAU KENAIKAN MATA
UANG ASING TERHADAP RUPIAH MENGAKIBATKAN PENINGKATAN
PENGHASILAN PRODUSEN EKSPORTIR DOMESTIK SEHINGGA PERMINTAAN
MEREKA AKAN BARANG & JASA DI DLM NEGERI IKUT MENINGKAT YANG
PADA AKHIRNYA MENDORONG KENAIKAN HARGA2 DI DLM NEGERI.
DI NEGARA MAJU/INDUSTRI, DAMPAK DEPRESIASI NILAI
TUKAR TERHADAP PERMINTAAN DLM NEGERI ADALAH
POSITIF, UNTUK KASUS NEGARA BERKEMBANG
TERMASUK INDONESIA HAL INI TDK TERJADI ????
EKSPEKTASI INFLASI DAN NILAI TUKAR
EKSPEKTASI BERKAITAN DGN POLA PERILAKU PASAR DLM
MENERIMA SUATU INFORMASI. JENIS INFORMASI YG
MEREKA TERIMA AKAN BERVARIASI (ASYMETRIC
INFORMATION) & POLA PERILAKU MEREKAPUN BERBEDABEDA DLM MERESPON SUATU JENIS INFORMASI YANG
SAMA, BAHKAN TERKADANG AKAN TERDAPAT PERILAKU
IRASIONAL DLM MERESPON SUATU INFORMASI.
EKSPEKTASI INI TERDAPAT DI PASAR BARANG, PASAR
UANG & PASAR TENAGA KERJA, DIMANA MASING-MASING
MEMPUNYAI SALING KETERKAITAN & MEMPUNYAI DAMPAK
TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI).
EKSPEKTASI MASYARAKAT TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN
HARGA-HARGA (INFLASI) DIYAKINI TERBENTUK DARI:
backward looking expectation & forward looking expectation
Backward Looking Expectation
MENGASUMSIKAN
BAHWA INFLASI YG TERJADI PD PERIODE SEBELUMNYA
AKAN TERJADI PD SAAT INI & MASA MENDATANG
Forward
Looking
Expectation
MENGGUNAKAN
INFORMASI MENGENAI KEJADIAN YG AKAN TERJADI PD
PERIODE MENDATANG SEBAGAI VARIABEL YG
BERPENGARUH PD SAAT INI.