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Reformasi Lembaga Keuangan Internasional dan Manfaatnya untuk Pembangunan Indonesia Herfan Brilianto Hotel Santika, 20 Desember 2010 Pendahuluan •Krisis 2008 momentum untuk memahami keterbatasan LKI •Integrasi ekonomi global butuh koordinasi global •LKI punya mandat, cakupan keanggotaan, dan kapasitas (finansial, SDM, institutional knowledge), tapi: • Who’s control the controller? • Institusi 1944 : dunia telah berubah!! • G7 ke G20 : growth contributor, share GDP • Key challenges tetap: poverty, crisis prevention & resolution, tapi nature berubah karena proses globalisasi •Apakah ada massive disconnection antara sistem global dan fundamental? Koordinasi Kebijakan Jangka Pendek: Langkah Pemulihan Washington Summit • • Kesepakatan Jangka Pendek Stabilisasi Sistem Keuangan • Dukungan kebijakan moneter • Stimulus fiskal bagi domestic demand • Akses pendanaan bagi EMDCs • Reformasi MDB agar bisa menggunakan full capacity untuk menangani krisis • Rekapitalisasi IFIs London Summit • Pittsburgh Summit Komitmen Nominal • Stimulus fiskal ($5 trillion by 2010) • Bank Sentral menggunakan full range of monetary policy instruments (termasuk non-conventional measures) • Memulihkan domestic lending & int’ capital flows • $1 trillion additional resources ke IFIs (750bn IMF, 250bn MDBs) • Memberi mandat ke IMF untuk menganalisa secara reguler actions taken & required • Memperkuat mandat surveillance IMF • Exit Strategy • Meneruskan stimulus fiskal hingga recovery cukup kuat • Menyiapkan exit pada saat yang tepat melalui kebijakan yang terkoordinir * Meluncurkan Framework for strong, sustainable and balanced global growth 6 Koordinasi Kebijakan Jangka Menengah: G20 Framework Time table Framework Launching (Pittsburgh) Basket of Policy Options (Toronto) Toronto Summit Seoul Summit • Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation • • Halve fiscal deficits by 2013 for advanced economies Stabilize the Debt-to-GDP ratio by 2016 • Group level policy options • Advanced deficit countries → boost national savings • Advanced surplus countries → focus on domestic demand • Emerging surplus countries → strengthen social safety nets • All countries → structural reform Policy Recommendations (Seoul) • Strong, Sustainable and Balanced growth • Comprehensive action plan • Country-specific policy initiatives • G20 Mutual Assessment Process at the country level • Identification of additional measures • Towards flexible exchange rates • Advanced countries mindful of policy impact • Indicative guidelines for current account 7 Reformasi LKI Washington Summit overview Peran IFIs dalam crisis management Antisipasi dampak krisis terhadap operasi IFIs • • IMF • Need for reforming IFIs functions • • London Summit Need for Governance Reform • Peran negara berkembang • Memperluas keanggotaan FSF • Merubah FSF menjadi FSB • • • Introducing Flexible Credit Line (FCL) Open, transparent and Merit-based election of senior leadership and heads Expediting the Timeline of Reform • IMF quota reform (’13.1=>’11.1) • WB voting reform (‘11.spring=>’10.spring) • Increasing the IFIs Resources to Developing Countries • $1,100 billion 13 Reformasi LKI Pittsburgh Summit • IMF • Kesepakatan untuk 5% quota shift from the over-represented to under-represented • • World Bank 3% voting power shift from the advanced to the developing & transition countries Toronto Summit • IMF • Seoul Summit sebagai deadline reformasi kuota • World Bank • completed the voice reform (3.13% voting power shift to DTC) • agreed to $350 billion in capital increase of MDBs Seoul Summit • IMF quota reform • shift of 6% in quota share dan GCI 100% • IMF governance reform • Mengurangi 2 kursi Eropa di BODs • Board’s effectiveness • Memperkuat peran Governors • Staff diversity • selection process for heads and senior leadership of IFIs 14 Kondisi Global Saat Ini Kekuatan • • • • • Avoiding recession Framework as real coordinative effort Financial regulation (compensation, capital standard, OTC) • IFIs reform Development focus Financial Inclusion • Anti Corruption Strengthening global economic governance Kelemahan • Real Progress from G20 Start to move beyond crisis agenda Slowing & Uneven Recovery Persistent Risks Higher domestic pressure for unilateral action (currency wars, protectionism) • Possible distraction from building fundamentals due to domestic agenda • High unemployment • Sovereign debt crisis • Fragile financial sectors • Rising global imbalances • Capital flows volatility • Commodity price fluctuation & rising energy & food price • Slow progress in climate change & Doha Agenda 12 Isu yang Mewarnai 2011 yang akan berpengaruh kepada agenda pembangunan Indonesia • Krisis sovereign debt di Eropa (Greece, Ireland, … Portugal, Spain, California?) • Exchange rate / competitive devaluation • Proteksionisme • Volatilitas capital flow • Food and energy price • Fokus G20: Revaluation and Rebalancing Global Economy melalui koordinasi makro global (inisiatif Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth) sebagai upaya memperkuat global economic governance dari G20. Posisi Indonesia • Instruksi Presiden: pertumbuhan harus inklusif (Development & Financial Inclusion) dan forum internasional harus dimanfaatkan untuk memajukan tema tersebut dalam rangka mendorong inisiatif di dalam negeri: all out economic diplomacy: ASEAN, APEC, G20 • Penanganan Framework sebagai jangkar bagi seluruh inisiatif di G20. •Development: Seoul Consensus & Multi Years Action Plan •Financial Inclusion: Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion Financial Inclusion Action Plan: Financial Inclusion Reformasi LKI dan Agenda Pembangunan • LKI selama ini fokus kepada agenda G7 dan negara maju, fenomena G20 merupakan “once in a lifetime opportunity” untuk mengembalikan LKI pada mandat awal sebagai global public goods dengan mengedepankan perspektif pembangunan dan pemerataan pertumbuhan ekonomi. • Agenda pembangunan global akan sulit untuk dipercepat apabila tidak diimbangi dengan kelanjutan reformasi LKI . •Reformasi IMF: stabilitas makro dan keuangan, antisipasi bubble dan spillover impact •Reformasi MDBs: percepatan pencapaian MDGs, fleksibilitas instrumen •Reformasi FSB: regulasi sektor keuangan untuk facilitating growth Sekian-Terima Kasih