Download Time series satellite data for seismic precursors assessment

EARSeL 4th Workshop on Remote Sensing and Geology, Mykonos, 24-25 May 2012
Time Series Satellite Data
for Seismic Precursors
Assessment
Maria Zoran- National Institute of
R&D for Optoelectronics ,Remote
Sensing Department, BucharestMagurele, Romania
[email protected];
TIME SERIES MULTISENSOR SATELLITE DATA
•Remote sensing satellites provide data useful in seismic
precursors assessment and disaster management :
-mapping and monitoring of seismic hazards,
-assessment of damage extent of strong earthquakes.
•A seismotectonic zone , capable of generating earthquakes
can be investigated by remote sensing data:
-to emphasize geomorphorogical features
-to identify faulting zones responsible of seismic events
generation.
•Remote sensing analysis and field studies of active faults
provide a geologic history better than instrumental and
historic records.
GPS NETWORK DATA
Integrated GPS Network are providing precise timedependent information on how the earth’s crust responds to
earthquakes and plate tectonic processes.
SYNERGY use of satellite, GPS, and in-situ field data
SEISMIC PRECURSORS
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Nonprecursory information predicts the earthquakes
expected from the previously recorded rates of
earthquakes- Long-term earthquake prediction
(probabilistic or deterministic) has extensively used
earthquake rates for nonprecursory iformation from
geologic and geodetic information.
Short-term earthquake prediction is based on analysis of
foreshocks and nonseismic potential precursors-considers
ground water changes, strain rates and geoelectrical and
geomagnetical phenomena related to earthquakes are
causal precursors.
Predictive precursors assume a causal relationship with
the mainshock and provide information about the
earthquake hazard better than achievable by assuming a
random distribution of earthquakes.
Earthquake prediction has two potentially compatible but
distinctly different objectives: (a) phenomena that provide
information about the future earthquake hazard useful to
those who live in earthquake-prone regions and (b)
phenomena causally related to the physical processes
governing failure on a fault that will improve our
understanding of those processes.
Earthquake precursors differentiated by the
characteristic lead-time between precursor and
the strong earthquake:
long-term (LT)-tens of years;
intermediate-term (IT)- years;
short-term (ST)- months;
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immediate (Im)- days and less.
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Possible mechanism for the generation of
electromagnetic waves in the lithosphere was
identified through the microfracturing process of
rocks responsible for geoelectric and
geomagnetic fields anomalies as well as
development of strong ionospheric perturbations
preceding strong earthquakes.
TEST AREA and Tohoku-Oki earthquake DATA
11 March 2011 14:46 JST(05:46 UTC) ;
Moment magnitude Mw 9.0 occurred
on the Japan Trench plate boundary
off the Eastern shore of Northern
Honshu, followed by :
the largest tsunami on Japan Pacific
coast, affecting a 400–500 Km area
Fukushima NPP colapse and radioactive
cloud over Pacific, Europe…
Epicenter was located at 38.1 °N, 142.9
°E, off the Pacific coast of the NorthEastern part of the Japanese main
land (Tohoku Region), at depth of 24
km and about 130 km East of Sendai
town and 373 km North-East of
Tokyo.
The main shock was preceded by a
foreshock sequence lasting two days.
The largest of these was an Mw 7.3
earthquake on 9 March 2011
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AFTERSHOCKS (as of 30 April 2012)
M 7.6 at 11 March 2011 15:15 JST (06:15 UTC);
Number:6(M 7 or greater);102(magnitude 6 or greater);671(M 5 or greater)
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 Aftershock s (as of 30 April 2012)
Largest Af tershock : Magnitude 7.6 at 11 March 201115 : 15 JST (06 : 15 UTC)Number : 6(magnitud e 7 or greater)102(magnitud e 6 or greater)671(M  5 or greater)
Global tectonic activity map
DATA USED
World Data Centre (WDC) for Solar-Terrestrial Science (STS)
Australia (http://www.ips.gov.au/World_Data_Centre),
for GPS Vertical TEC Global Maps ;
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA
validated on ionosonde data
( http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ctipe/TEC.html), and
Ionospheric and Atmospheric Remote Sensing web site
http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov .
Geomagnetic and solar data have been also provided by Space
Environment Information Service Japan
(http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/) as well as by International
Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network ( INTERMAGNET)
at (http://www.intermagnet.org);
British Geological Survey http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/ ,
and
World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto
http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp.
MODIS Terra/Aqua Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity
( LST/E )
[http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.html ;
Japan Meteorological Agency (http://www.jma.go.jp).
http://www.kakioka-jma.go.jp/
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Space-based geodetic measurements of the solid
Earth with the Global Positioning System in
synergy with ground-based seismological
measurements, interferometric synthetic aperture
radar data, high-resolution digital elevation
models as well imaging spectroscopy (e.g. using
ASTER, MODIS and Hyperion data) are
contributing significantly to seismic hazard risk
assessment.
Space-time anomalies of Earth’s emitted radiation
(radon in underground water and soil , thermal
infrared in spectral range measured from satellite
months to weeks before the occurrence of
earthquakes etc.), ionospheric and
electromagnetic anomalies have been interpreted,
by several authors, as pre-seismic signals .
Ionosphere (90km-1000 km) is subjected
to a number of different forces from both,
below and above the ionosphere, the
major impact being due to solar forcing
Atmospheric perturbations induced by
earthquakes, volcano eruptions, weather
fronts and nuclear explosions can induce
signatures in the ionospheric plasma
density by atmospheric–ionosphericlithospheric coupling processes.
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EQ atmospheric signals precursors
Solar and geomagnetic conditions
The Dst index represents the axially symmetric disturbance
magnetic field at the dipole equator on the Earth's surface.
Some disturbances in Dst can be related with earthquake
Time series Atmospheric Electric Field –Kakioka station
2-15 March 2011
Time-series Vertical GPS TEC Global Maps 7-12 March 2011
GPS TEC variation during 23 February- 15 March 2011
TEC enhancement in the ionospheric electron content several
days before earthquake , strong increase one day prior Eq.
Possible em emissioms ULF to VLF frequency from the
epicenter to a very large radius area, propagation to the
ionosphere possibly generates the TEC anomalies
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Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Anomaly
Test areas : Eq epicenter (a); Sendai region (b);
Fukushima (c); Tokyo (d)
a)
b)
c)
d)
LST variation during 1 January- 30 March 2011 near
11 March Tohoku earthquake epicenter
Air Temperature Anomaly over Japan
JAPAN
Year 2011
January
February
Northern
Japan
Eastern
Japan
Western
Japan
Okinawa
and
Amami
Time-series of 5-days running mean air temperature anomaly
March
Time series 10-day mean air temperature and anomaly over
21 February -21 March 2011, on the base period of normals 1981-2010
around Japan.
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CONCLUSION
From 7 March - 10 March, the geomagnetic field
was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active periods.
During the entire analyzed period 7 March – 14
March 2011, solar activity ranged from low to
high levels decreasing again to low levels.
Quantitative analysis of TEC data before and
during the occurrence of earthquake shows the
consistent enhancement in the ionospheric
electron content several days before earthquake,
with a strong increase one day prior Tohoku
earthquake.
The emission of electromagnetic radiations from
ULF to VLF frequency range from the epicenter to
a very large radius area and their subsequent
propagation to the ionosphere possibly
generates the TEC anomalies.
The analysis of all available geospatial data
shows evidence of a thermal build up near the
epicentral area of 11 March Tohoku earthquake.
Thank You !