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Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and requirements Henning Schulzrinne Columbia University [email protected] 25-May-17 Future of Networking Overview Infrastructure, once established, tends to change very slowly Hypothesis: all major communications modes have been explored replacement dedicated IP largely complete Networking lacks obvious drivers of other technologies: energy costs, pollution fuel cells higher speed jet engine New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven Reliability is the real QoS 25-May-17 Future of Networking Networking is getting into middle years 25-May-17 idea current IP 1969, 1980? 1981 TCP telnet ftp 1974 1969 1980 1981 1983 1985 Future of Networking Standardization Really two facets of standardization: 1. public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum) 2. reduction to 1-3 common technologies LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, … Ethernet WAN: IP, X.25, OSI IP Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent 'conversions' 25-May-17 Future of Networking Technologies at ~30 years Other technologies at similar maturity level: air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner) cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T) analog telephones: 1876 – 1915 (transcontinental telephone) railroad: 1800s -- ? 25-May-17 Future of Networking Observations on progress 1960s: military professional consumer now, often reversed Oscillate: convergence divergence continued convergence clearly at physical layer niches larger support separate networks Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low): exceptions: telex, telegram, semaphores fax, email X.25 + OSI, X.400 IP, SMTP analog cell phones 25-May-17 Future of Networking History of networking History of networking = non-network applications migrate postal & intracompany mail, fax email, IM broadcast: TV, radio interactive voice/video communication VoIP information access web, P2P disk access iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-IP 25-May-17 Future of Networking Network evolution Only three modes, now thoroughly explored: packet/cell-based message-based (application data units) session-based (circuits) Replace specialized networks left to do: embedded systems need cost(CPU + network) < $10 cars industrial (manufacturing) control commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now LONworks) remote controls, light switches keys replaced by biometrics 25-May-17 Future of Networking New applications New bandwidth-intensive applications Reality-based networking (security) cameras Distributed games often require only lowbandwidth control information current game traffic ~ VoIP Computation vs. storage vs. communications communications cost has decreased less rapidly than storage costs 25-May-17 Future of Networking Commercial access cost (T1) $700 $600 $/month $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1996 1998 2000 2001 Year 25-May-17 Future of Networking T1 2002 2003 Transit cost (OC-3, NY – London) 25-May-17 Future of Networking Disk storage cost (IDE) Cost $100,000.00 $/GB $10,000.00 $1,000.00 $100.00 $10.00 $1.00 May-79 Feb-82 Nov-84 Aug-87 May-90 Jan-93 Date 25-May-17 Future of Networking Oct-95 Jul-98 Apr-01 Jan-04 Transition of networking Maturity cost dominates can get any number of bits anywhere, but at considerable cost and complexity casually usable bit density still very low Specialized commodity OPEX (= people) dominates installed and run by 'amateurs' need low complexity, high reliability 25-May-17 Future of Networking Security challenges DOS, security attacks permissions-based communications only allow modest rates without asking effectively, back to circuit-switched Higher-level security services more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, … User identity problem is not availability, but rather overabundance 25-May-17 Future of Networking Scaling Scaling is only backbone problem Depends on network evolution: continuing addition of AS to flat space deep trouble additional hierarchy 25-May-17 Future of Networking QoS QoS is meaningless to users care about service availability reliability as more and more value depends on network services, can't afford random downtimes 25-May-17 Future of Networking Wildcards Quantum computing Teleportation 25-May-17 Future of Networking