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3. Evolution of network technologies
3.1. Evolution of transport technologies
(backbone transport - switching/routing and transmission
systems)
3.2. Evolution of access networks’ technologies to
broadband (xDSL, CATV, Broadband Wireless Access)
3.3. Evolution of mobile networks (to 3G and beyond)
1
3.1. Evolution of transport technologies
A. Public Network Principles
Wireless
Technologies
Optical Fiber
Twisted Pair
Transport (Core/
Backbone) Network
Cable/Coax
Powerline
Access Gateway
Switching/
Routing
Transmission
Network
Terminations
Access Network
These 3 techniques will be discussed next
2
B. Evolution of switching technologies
DE-NG (IP)
MPLS
G-MPLS
ISDN
Hand
Self-dial
1935
telegraph
Cr-B
QE
55
70
DE-2
FR
IP/X25/SMDS
Cellular
radio
NMT
UMTS/IMT-2000
Public
DE-1
1884
Operator
GSM
Ethernet
PABX-1
PABX-2
Telegraph
1840
Manual
switching
1900
Electromechanics
1950
Analog
1975
1980
PABX-NG (IP)
Private
Gbit Ethernet 10 Gbit Ethernet
Digital
1990
2000
Years
3
Switching technologies (Cntd)
АТМ
(CS, 80-s,
B-ISDN)
CS
(PSTN)
FR
(FS, 70-s,
DN)
Х.25
(PS-VC, 60-s,
DN)
Connection-oriented
technologies
IP
MS
(PS-DG,
60-s, Internet)
(Tlg)
Connectionless-oriented
technologies
4
Transport technologies in
network backbones
BACKBONE OPTIONS
ATM
IP
OB
MPLS
5
C. Transport technologies in
network backbones - ATM
BACKBONE OPTIONS
ATM
IP
OB
MPLS
6
ATM and the IETF model
• Layer
Application
Transport
Network
Data Link
Physical
1/2
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Multimedia Transport
Constant Bit Rate (CBR) - Voice
Variable Bit Rate (VBR) - WWW
Available Bit Rate (ABR) – E-mail
Unspecified Bit Rate (UBR)
ATM
7
Putting ATM to work
1
2
3
4
5
Voice
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Data
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Video
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Multimedia
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
8
• Constant Bit Rate for switched TDM traffic
(AAL1):
ATM QoS
– Access Aggregation (TDM for GSM/GPRS, ATM
for UMTS)
– Digital Cross-Connect
– Backbone Voice Transport - Basic
• Real-time Variable Bit Rate for bursty,
CBR
rt-VBR
LINE
RATE
(LR)
nrt-VBR
ABR
UBR
UBR+
jitter-sensitive traffic:
– Backbone Voice Transport – Advanced (AAL2)
– Optional for Packetized Access Transport &
Aggregation (3G UTRAN, 2G CDMA)
• Non real-time Variable Bit Rate for
bursty high priority data traffic:
– 2.5G data services
• Unspecified Bit Rate+ with Minimum
B/W Guarantee for internal data:
– Operations, Admin & Maintenance (element
management, stats collection, network
surveillance, …)
– Billing data
– Internal LAN traffic (email, web, file sharing,
9 …)
between operator’s business offices
ATM’s role in the network’s segments
Premise
1
2
3
4
5
• LAN/Desktop
• Campus Backbone
Access
• Low Speed (56/64)
• Medium Speed (E1)
• High Speed (>E1 to SDH)
• Integrated Access
Backbone
• Voice
• Data
• Video
• Multimedia
10
ATM and the “Competition”
Premise
• LAN/Desktop - Ethernet, HS Ethernet, Gigabit Ethernet
• Campus Backbone - HS Ethernet, Gigabit Ethernet
Access
• Low Speed (56/64) - ISDN, ADSL
• Medium Speed (E1) – xDSL, E1
• High Speed (>E1 to SDH) - SDH
• Integrated Access - E1, xDSL, SDH
Backbone
• Voice
• Data
• Video
• Multimedia
Traditional Telephony, IP Backbones
Optical Backbones, IP Backbones
Optical Backbones, IP Backbones
Optical Backbones, IP Backbones
11
ATM Summary
Multimedia
Not used much on Premise
Present use in Backbone
Predictable Performance/Guaranteed QoS
12
D. Transport technologies in
network backbones - IP
BACKBONE OPTIONS
ATM
IP
OB
MPLS
13
IP and the IETF Model
Application
• Network Layer (Layer 3)
Transport
IP
Network
•
Data Link
•End-to-End Addressing/Delivery
•“Best Effort” Service
Physical
14
Putting IP to work
1
2
3
4
5
Voice
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Data
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Video
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
Multimedia
• Delay
• Delay Variation
• Loss
15
IP’s Role in the network’s segment
Premise
1
2
3
4
5
• LAN/Desktop
• Campus Backbone
Access
• Low Speed (56/64)
• Medium Speed (E1)
• High Speed (>E1 to SDH)
• Integrated Access
Backbone
• Voice
• Data
• Video
• Multimedia
16
IP and the “Competition”
Premise
•LAN/Desktop
•Campus Backbone
No Real Competition
No Real Competition
Access
•Low Speed (56/64)
•Medium Speed (E1)
•Integrated Access
ISDN
xDSL, non-channelized E1
E1, multiple E1, Frame Relay, SDH
Backbone
• Voice
• Data
• Video
• Multimedia
Traditional Telephony
Optical Backbones
Optical Backbones
Optical Backbones, ATM Backbones
17
Why use IP?
-Wide acceptance
Internet popularity
Global reach
- IP Standards
Mature standards
Interoperability
IP Protocol characteristics
Simple protocol
Good general purpose protocol
“Best Effort” Protocol
18
IP summary
Globally popular
Originally developed for data
Mature standards
Interoperability
“Best Effort” Protocol
Voice over IP gaining popularity
19
We need a better Internet
Reliable as the phone
Working right away as a TV set
Mobile as a cell phone and
Powerful as a computer
Next Generation
Networks
20
Main directions of
improvement
1. Scalability
2. Security
IPv6
3. Quality of service
4. Mobility
21
E. Transport technologies in
network backbones - MPLS
BACKBONE OPTIONS
ATM
IP
OB
MPLS
22
MPLS Model
LER
A
LER
B
LSR
LSR
FEC
LSP
• Routers that handle MPLS and IP are called Label Switch Routers (LSRs)
• LSRs at the edge of MPLS networks are called Label Edge Routers (LERs)
• Ingress LERs classify unlabelled IP packets and appends the appropriate
label.
• Egress LERs remove the label and forwarding the unlabelled IP packet
towards its destination.
• All packets that follow the same path (LSP- Label Switched Part) through the
MPLS network and receive the same treatment at each node are known as a
Forwarding Equivalence Class (FEC).
MPLS adds a connection-oriented paradigm into IP networks
23
E. Switching Technologies - Summary
• Driving forces (mid of 80th) - Common platform
for different types of traffic
• ISDN is not suitable (N-ISDN - low bit rates,
circuit switching)
• ATM will not become as the most important
switching technology since 2000s
• Main competitors (Performance/Price)
# Ethernet (LANs)
# xDSL (Access)
# IP/MPLS (Backbones)
24
F. Transmission technologies in
network backbones - OB
BACKBONE OPTIONS
ATM
IP
OB
MPLS
25
Stated data rates for the most important end-user
and backbone transmission technologies -1
Technology
Speed
GSM mobile telephone
9.6 to 14.4 kbps
service
High-Speed CircuitSwitched Data service Up to 56 kbps
(HSCSD)
Plain Old Telephone
Up to 56 kbps
System (POTS)
Dedicated 56Kbps on
56 kbps
frame relay
DS0
64 kbps
General Packet Radio
56 to 114 kbps
System (GPRS)
BRI: 64 kbps to 128 kbps
PRI: 23 (T-1) or 30 (E1)
assignable 64 kbps channels
ISDN
plus control channel; up to
1.544 Mbps (T-1) or 2.048
(E1)
Physical Medium Application
Wireless
Mobile telephone for business and
personal use
Wireless
Mobile telephone for business and
personal use
Twisted pair
Home and small business access
Various
All
Wireless
BRI: Faster home and small
BRI: Twisted pair PRI: business access
T-1 or E1 line
PRI: Medium and large enterprise
access
IDSL
128 kbps
Twisted pair
AppleTalk
230.4 kbps
Twisted pair
Enhanced Data GSM
384 kbps
Environment (EDGE)
Business e-mail with fairly large
file attachments
The base signal on a channel in the
set of Digital Signal levels
Mobile telephone for business and
personal use
Wireless
Faster home and small business
access
Local area network for Apple
devices; several networks can be
bridged; non-Apple devices can
also be connected
Mobile telephone for business and
personal use
26
Stated data rates for the most important end-user
and backbone transmission technologies -2
Technology
Satellite
Speed
Physical Medium
400 kbps
(DirectPC and Wireless
others)
Application
Faster home and small
enterprise access
Frame relay
56 kbps to
1.544 Mbps
Twisted pair or
coaxial cable
Large company backbone
for LANs to ISP
ISP to Internet infrastructure
DS1/T-1
1.544 Mbps
Twisted pair,
coaxial cable, or
optical fiber
Large company to ISP
ISP to Internet infrastructure
Wireless
Mobile telephone for
business and personal use
(available in 2002 or later)
Universal Mobile
Telecommunications Service Up to 2 Mbps
(UMTS)
E-carrier (E-1)
T-1C (DS1C)
IBM Token Ring/802.5
DS2/T-2
Digital Subscriber Line
(DSL)
Twisted pair,
coaxial cable, or
optical fiber
Twisted pair,
3.152 Mbps
coaxial cable, or
optical fiber
Twisted pair,
4 Mbps (also
coaxial cable, or
16 Mbps)
optical fiber
Twisted pair,
coaxial cable, or
6.312 Mbps
optical fiber
Twisted pair (used
512 Kbps to 8
as a digital,
Mbps
broadband medium)
2.048 Mbps
32-channel European
equivalent of T-1
Large company to ISP
ISP to Internet infrastructure
Second most commonlyused local area network
after Ethernet
Large company to ISP
ISP to Internet infrastructure
Home, small business, and
enterprise access using
existing copper lines
27
Stated data rates for the most important end-user
and backbone transmission technologies -3
Technology
E-2
Cable modem
Ethernet
IBM Token
Ring/802.5
E-3
Speed
Physical Medium
Twisted pair, coaxial cable, or optical
8.448 Mbps
fiber
512 kbps to Coaxial cable (usually uses Ethernet);
52 Mbps
in some systems, telephone used for
upstream requests
10BASE-T (twisted pair); 10BASE-2
10 Mbps
or -5 (coaxial cable); 10BASE-F
(optical fiber)
16 Mbps
Twisted pair, coaxial cable, or optical
(also 4
fiber
Mbps)
34.368
Twisted pair or optical fiber
Mbps
Application
Carries four multiplexed E-1 signals
Home, business, school access
Most popular business local area network
(LAN)
Second most commonly-used local area
network after Ethernet
Carries 16 E-l signals
ISP to Internet infrastructure
Coaxial cable
Smaller links within Internet
DS3/T-3
infrastructure
ISP to Internet infrastructure
51.84 Mbps Optical fiber
Smaller links within Internet
OC-1
infrastructure
Between router hardware and WAN lines
Short-range (50 feet) interconnection
High-Speed Serial Up to 53
HSSI cable
Mbps
between slower LAN devices and faster
Interface (HSSI)
WAN lines
100BASE-T (twisted pair); 100BASE- Workstations with 10 Mbps Ethernet
100 Mbps
Fast Ethernet
F (optical fiber)
cards can plug into a Fast Ethernet LAN
44.736
Mbps
28
Stated data rates for the most important end-user
and backbone transmission technologies -4
Technology
Speed
Fiber Distributed-Data
Interface (FDDI)
100 Mbps Optical fiber
T-3D (DS3D)
135 Mbps Optical fiber
E-4
OC-3/SDH
E-5
OC-12/STM-4
Gigabit Ethernet
OC-24
OC-48/STM-16
OC-192/STM-64
OC-256
139.264
Mbps
155.52
Mbps
565.148
Mbps
622.08
Mbps
1 Gbps
1.244
Gbps
2.488
Gbps
10 Gbps
13.271
Gbps
Physical Medium
Optical fiber
Optical fiber
Optical fiber
Application
Large, wide-range LAN usually in a large
company or a larger ISP
ISP to Internet infrastructure
Smaller links within Internet infrastructure
Carries 4 E3 channels
Up to 1,920 simultaneous voice conversations
Large company backbone
Internet backbone
Carries 4 E4 channels
Up to 7,680 simultaneous voice conversations
Optical fiber
Internet backbone
Optical fiber (and
"copper" up to 100
meters)
Workstations/networks with 10/100 Mbps Ethernet
plug into Gigabit Ethernet switches
Optical fiber
Internet backbone
Optical fiber
Internet backbone
Optical fiber
Backbone
Optical fiber
Backbone
29
Copper
cable
1935
Modulation methods
Transmission media
Evolution of transmission technologies
SDH
PDH
WDM
all
optical
Wavelength multiplexing
Time multiplexing, TDM
Frequency modulation, FDM
1900
1970
1980
1990
2000
Years
30
Technological limitations of different
transmission media
Limits of Transmission Media
Mbit/s
Transmission Capacity [Mbit/s]
10000
1000
Fiber
250
100
Cellular
Wireless*
Coax
10
1
Copper Twisted Pair
0,1
0,1
1
10
100
Distance [km ]
*Capacity in Mbit/s/sq_km, Bandwidth 500 MHz
Optical fibers are the only alternative at high bandwidth and distances
31
Optical systems move
from backbone to access
Access
Metro
Backbone
Optical
Copper
yesterday
Fiber optics
and laser
ISDN POTS
5 Years
today
Optical
Copper
ADSL
additional: color filter and
optical amplifier
10-15 Years
tomorrow
Optical
additional: optical switch, color
converter
Entry process of optical systems into access occurs very slowly
... Prognosis 10-15 years, reason: exchange of copper cables and maturity of technologies
32
Today optical transmission system consists
mainly of electronics and passive optical
components
Signal
Multiplexer
SDH networks:
Electrical
signal
Amplifier
Cross connector
TDM
MUX,
Crossconnect,
control
Optical fiber
TDM
MUX
Passive
optics
Optoelectronics
Active
optics
Electronics
WDM networks:
TDM
MUX
Electrical
signal
Optical
signal
Electronics
Control
WDM
MUX
Optical fiber
Passive
optics:
- lenses
- prisms
- grating
Passive
optics
Active
optics
Passive
optics:
- lenses
- grating
- mirrors
• SDH and WDM process signals most of the time only
electronically
• Amplifiers are the only active optical elements in the network
WDM
MUX,
Crossconnect
33
Day after tomorrow:
All-optical switching and multiplexing
Signal Multiplexer
Amplifier
Switch
Optical
signal
Control
WDM
MUX
Optical fiber
Passive
optics:
- lenses
- prisms
- grating
Switch
Matrix
Passive
optics
Aktive
Optik
Active
optics:
- Switch
- color converter
- amplifier
• All-optical systems process signals only optically
• Electronics disappear
• Nortel (03/2002): large scale stand-alone optical switches
are likely for longer term market requirements
34
Future photonic switches
• Optics are good for transport
• Electronics are good for switching
• Electronics as far as possible
Evolution instead of Revolution  at least, 5
years for first all-optical systems in backbone
and metro area
35
G. Concluding remarks - growth of network
capacity and “Death of distance” phenomenon
• Growth of network capacity
reduction of information
transmission costs
• New generation of transmission systems –
new ratio Cost of transmission/Bandwidth
• PCM
SDH/SONET
DWDM
• Bandwidth becoming a less dominating factor in cost of connection
• Cost of one-bit-transmission has an obvious tendency to become very
close to zero in long distance communications systems
• “Flattened” networks
• “Death of distance” phenomenon (F. Cairncross, 1997)
• Challenges for operators
36
Bandwidth using
• 32 terrestrial carriers connecting to the New York
metropolitan area have a combined potential capacity of
818.2 Terabits per second. Of that, only 22.6 Terabits per
second -- 2.8 percent -- of network bandwidth is actually
in use
•
City
Int'l IP
Bandwidth,
Gbit/s
London
550.3
Paris
399.4
Frankfurt
320.2
Amsterdam 267.1
Using
Bandwidth,
Gbit/s
9,5
9,3
10,3
8,2
37
Development of costs for IC sector
Cost of information processing $ per instruction per second
Cost of a three-minute telephone call from New York
to London, $
IBM Mainframe
100
350
300
Cray I
10
250
Sun Microsystems 2
IBM PC
1
US$
$ per instruction per second
Digital VAX
200
150
100
0,1
50
Pentium-chip PC
0,01
1974
1979
1975
1985
years
1982
1994
to be
continued
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
to be
continued
1996
years
Source: Economist
38
3.2. Evolution of access networks’ technologies to
broadband
A. Reference structure of access network
NT - Network Termination
CPE - Customer Premises Equipment
AN – Access Node
TP – Twisted pair
FOC – Fiber optic
PL – Power line
CPE
Access Network
Core Network
TP/Coax/Radio/FO/PL
NT
CPE
AN
•High cost of access networks 50-70% of the total cost of local telephone networks
•Modems/ISDN, LL (E1) based on four-wire connection
39
B. Access networks go to broadband
Local networks based on outdated principles are became a “bottleneck”,
limiting subscriber’s access to modern services.
Key forces:
• New subscriber’s requirements to providing new services
• New regulations
• Development of new services in voice, data and video information in
interactive and broadcasting mode
# WWW pages with powerful video information
# Multimedia applications Digital Video Broadcasting (DVB), Video-on-Demand (VoD), interactive TV
• Emergence of alternative operators in local networks, who compete with
incumbent operators in provisioning a wide set of additional services
• Construction of high-speed core networks with a capacity of dozens and
hundreds of Gbit/s
• Wireless Technologies
40
Technology Trends
•
•
•
•
Data communications exceed telephony
Wireless/mobile subscribers exceed landline subscribers
Broadband on Wireless
Emergence of the Next Generation Networks
41
Business growing the broadband access
Grow the market in three waves:
– High-speed Internet access (HSIA)
– Business access (start with underserved SOHO segment)
– Residential multimedia (gaming/video/entertainment)
MV
Address new audiences (PC, TV, console)
Residential Multimedia
Build on existing infrastructure
Move
aggressively
into HSIA
Today
Business Access
High-speed Internet access
TIME
42
C. Different media to the customer
Satellites / Sky Stations
GSM/GPRS/UMTS
WLAN
Optical Fiber
Twisted Pair
Cable/Coax
Access Network
Backbone
Networks
43
Technological limitations of different
transmission media
Limits of Transmission Media
Mbit/s
Transmission Capacity [Mbit/s]
10000
1000
Fiber
250
100
Cellular
Wireless*
Coax
10
1
Copper Twisted Pair
0,1
0,1
1
10
100
Distance [km ]
*Capacity in Mbit/s/qkm, Bandwidth 500 MHz
Optical fibers are the only alternative at high bandwidth and distances
44
D. Access networks’ technologies
time
UMTS
2010
2005
SHDSL
UDSL
2000
HDSL
HSCSD
VDSL
GPRS
SDSL
2B1Q
VoD
TV digital Voice
4B3T
POTS
TV
DECT
WLAN
xDSL
TV analog
GSM
PDC
CDMA
CDMA
VSAT
ISDN
1990
EDGE
PMP
ADSL
1995 Power line
BPON
WLL
Satellite
OPAL
Bluetooth
AMPS
PON
STM 1
AON
Cellular radio
1980
Copper
Coax Wireless
Fiber optics
1975
Copper
1900
45
E. Broadband access with xDSL technologies
Extending high bit rates coverage
ADSL+
10 Mb/s
7.5 Mb/s
Bit rates
5.5 Mb/s
ADSL
3.5 Mb/s
1 Mb/s
Increasing loop length
CPE
Central
Office
DSLAM
46
# 63.8 m DSL lines worldwide at end of 2003
Source: DSL Forum, 2004
47
# 'Top Ten' DSL countries by number of lines
48
Source: DSL Forum, 2004
# 'Top Ten' countries per 100 population
49
Source: DSL Forum, 2004
F. Broadband access in CATV network
TS
CPh
POTS
Hub
TV
TV
Coax
Hub
Coax or
Fiber
Headend
STB
PC
CM
Internet
TV Studio
TS - Telephone set
CPh - Cable phone
STB - Set-top box
CM - Cable modem
POTS - Plain old telephone system
50
Cable modems
•
•
•
•
Access to the Internet provided by operators in CATV networks –
Due to new regulations for CATV operators Key factor of cable modem applications
New application of cable modems – HBR access to Internet
# 3 Mbit/s in symmetrical configurations
# 30 Mbit/s in forward and 10Mbit/s in backwards directions in asymmetrical
configurations
Other most important services in CATV networks
# Distribution of digital TV programs
# Interactive digital television
# Voice over IP and Voice over ATM
New possibilities of broadband access via cable modems –
due to an evolution of AN Coax infrastructure to HFC infrastructure
51
G. Broadband Wireless Access
General term – Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
G1. Fixed BWA (LMDS/MMDS/PtM…)
LMDS - Local Multipoint Distribution System
•Interactive television TV with related services
•Voice service (usually as supplement to other services)
•High-speed data transmission for business users
•Access to the Internet and streaming multimedia from Web sites
52
G2. Mobile BWA (WLAN, UMTS, IMT-2000…)
WLAN Standards:
IEEE 802.11, 802.11a, 802.11b and 802.11g
802.11b - Wi-Fi ("wireless fidelity") technology
Wi-Fi - alternative to a wired LAN (offices/homes)
•Ethernet protocol & CSMA/CA (carrier sense multiple access with collision
avoidance) for common channel sharing
•Frequency range - 2.4 GHz
•Data speeds - up to 11 Mbps
•802.11a
BRs from
1
D
100
•802.11b
1
100
11 Mb/s
50 m
•802.11g
1
100
54 Mb/s
20 m
to 12 Mb/s
50 m
53
G.3. WiMax – Worldwide Interoperability
for Microwave Access
•Most fundamental difference between Wi-Fi and WiMax – they are
designed for totally different apps
•Wi-Fi is LAN technology designed to add mobility to wired LANs.
•WiMax was designed to provide MAN BWA services
•Wi-Fi supports a transmission up to few hundred meters, WiMax could
support services in area up to 50 km
54
Source: dBrn Associates, Inc., 2004
WiMax Cell
55
I. Access networks – concluding remarks
# Access networks are the most expensive part for
operators
# Copper cables have an average life span of approx. 50
years.
# Copper transmission systems reach their theoretical
limits in access networks at approx. 50 Mbit/s.
# In Europe and North America massive investments in
access networks will be realized in 10-20 years.
Most of these investments will be applied to fiber optics
and to wireless networks.
56
Broadband access in Europe and US
EUROPE
•
•
According to a new IDC study, broadband penetration in Western Europe will continue to surge
in coming years. By 2009, 46% of Western European households will have broadband access,
compared to 20% at the end of 2004. By 2009, there will be more than 92 million broadband
connections, up from 40 million at the end of 2004. 83% of these will be provided to the
residential market.
Although Internet access will remain the most important application for the short to medium
term, services like voice over broadband and IPTV will be cornerstones of successful business
strategy.
US
In 2004, the number of high-speed subscribers in the U.S. grew by 35.4% to 32.5 million
subscribers, consisting of the following access technologies:
• cable modem
- 17.0 million
• DSL
- 12.6 million
• fixed wireless
- 2.2 million
• fiber-to-the-home
- 0.2 million
• satellite
- 0.4 million
• mobile wireless (3G) - 0.1 million
• broadband over power line - less than 50,000
57
3.3. Evolution of mobile communications
58
59
Beginningof
of 2G
Beginning
60
Source: ITU
61
Source: ITU
62
Source: ITU
63
Source: ITU
Beyond 3G vision
64
Service evolution from GSM to UMTS
2002
2004+
2000
2000
GSM
GSM Today

 Basic
Basic telephony
Telephony
 Circuit
kbps,
Circuitdata
Data28,8
28.8
kbps
(HSCSD)
(HSCSD)
 Standardised
Standardisedbearer
bearer&&
supplem.
services
suppl. services
GSM
HSCSD: High Speed
Circuit Switched Data
EDGE: Enhanced
Data Rates for GSM
Evolution
R
GSM
GSM Enhancements
enhancements
  Packet Data
Packet data (GPRS
(GPRS <= 180 kbps,
<=+EDGE
180 kbps)
<= 500 kbps)
 Circuit data (+ EDGE
Circuit Data
<=500
kbps)
(+EDGE
< 300 kbps*)
 CAMEL
CAMELhome
homeservices
services
support
support
 SIM Toolkit, Mobile
Execution
Environment
UMTS
UMTS
Basic
telephony
Basic
Telephony
Mob.
multimedia
& and
Mobile
Multimedia
asymmetric
services
Asymmetric
Services
Circuit/packet
dataData
Circuit / Packet
Rural Rural <=384
<= kbps
384 kbps
(Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps
(Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps
Low Range <= 2 Mbps
Low range
<= 2 Mbps
Standardised
Capabilities
  Virtual Home
Standardized capabilities
 Environment
Virtual Home Environment
in addition
 New Capacity (Spectrum)
3-4 years –
transition
period
CAMEL: Customised
Applications for Mobile
Enhanced Logic
SIM - Subscriber Identity
Module
UMTS +
GSM
R
GPRS: General Packet
Radio System
65
Ovum
66
Technology Challenge for Mobility
Deployment
2000-2006
Future
Deployment
Mobility
Vehicular
2.5G
2G
UMTS
FDD
Beyond 3G
Large Area coverage
up to 384
kbit/s
GSM
GPRS
EDGE
Pedestrian
UMTS
TDD
Wireless LAN
Cordless
DECT
BRANs
IEEE 802.11 (Wi-Fi),
Fixed
Source: Siemens
BWA
IEEE 802.16/a/e
WiMax
Indoor
up to 2 Mbit/s
Bluetooth
Portable
MMAC
FWA (Fixed Wireless Access)
0.1
1
10
Mbit/s
67 100
Evolution of mobile networks from 2G to B3G
68
Technology penetration forecasts for GSM, GPRS,
EDGE and WCDMA for Western Europe
69
Mobile access will dominate
1800 Subscriptions worldwide (millions)
1600
Mobile
Mobile
subscriptions
Fixed
1400
1200
Mobile Internet
Fixed Internet
1000
Mobile internet
subscriptions
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Siemens
70
Mobile messaging market
Increasing importance of multimedia applications
• SMSC/MMSC supplier revenues [€m], worldwide
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SMSC 253 460 679 984 1246 1196 943 698 457
10 69 184 460 805 1100
MMSC
SMSC:
Short Messaging
Service Center
MMSC:
Multimedia Messaging
Service Center
Source: UBS Warburg, 2002
71
Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) potential
Western European ARPU
(Euro/ Month)
15% other services
ARPU (Euro/month)
40
35
Mobile Data
23%
30
25
20
5% Personal Organizer
5% Mini Newspaper
6% Mobile Banking
9% Video Telephony/Conf.
9% Multimedia Messaging
77%
Individual
11% Booking & Reservation Applications
15
12% Map-based Traffic Info
10
14% Map-based Local Info
5
14% Internet Browsing
0
YE01
YE02
YE03
YE04
YE05
Year
Voice
SMS
MMC
Data (excl. SMS)
Enterprise Applications
23%
Enterprise
Applications
Source: Siemens
72
European Average Revenue Per User for mobile voice
and mobile data
€ / month
70
60
50
Mobile Data
40
30
20
Mobile Voice
10
0
2000 2001




2002 2003
2004 2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
Advertising ARPU
M-Commerce ARPU
Mobile data ARPU
Voice ARPU
Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Siemens
73
Appendix -
E-mail
Comparison How long
does it take
to download:
Song or photo
1 h video
MP 3
MPEG 4 in TV-Quality
High resolution
Wireless
wired
3k
3M
300 M
GSM
9,6 k
2,5 sec
42
min
3 days
PSTN
56 k
0,4 sec
7
min
12 hours
GPRS
ISDN
115 k
128 k
0,2 sec
3,5 min
6 hours
UMTS
ADSL
2M
8M
0,01 sec
Cable
WLAN
30 M
80 M
1
Fiber
800 G
30
12
sec
20 min
ms
1
sec
30 sec
ns
30
µsec
3 ms
74
Live Video Codecs starting with 32 kbit/s
Byte
bit/s