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GSLM 53300 System Simulation Yat-wah Wan Room: B317; Email: ywan; Ext: 3166 1 Agenda house keeping issues applications useful of simulation information from Arena systems, models, and simulation 2 House-Keeping Issues prerequisite/background: undergraduate probability and statistics aims and objectives: covering simulation Arena of discrete-event systems as the main tool, plus others (spreadsheet) a little bit on modeling and statistical issues of simulation 3 Contents first 13 lectures: first 8 Ch of the textbook Ch 1 Ch 2 Ch 3 Ch 4 Ch 5 Ch 6 Ch 7 Ch 8 What is simulation? Fundamental simulation concepts A guided tour through Arena Modeling basic operations and inputs Modeling detailed operations Statistical analysis of output from terminating simulations Intermediate modeling and steady-state statistical analysis Entity transfter 4 Contents last 4 lectures special features & unconventional models of Arena generation of random variates examples of simulation applications 5 Textbook and References textbook Kelton, W. David, Randall P. Sadowski, and David T. Sturrock (2010) Simulation with Arena references Hoover, Stewart V. and Ronald F. Perry (1989) Simulation: A Problem-Solving Approach Law, Averill M. and W. David Kelton (2000) Simulation Modeling and Analysis Ripley, Brian D. (2006) Stochastic Simulation Ross, Sheldon M. (2006) Simulation 6 Assessments Assignments 30% 40% 30% Project Final Examination 7 Applications of Simulation 8 Examples of Simulation searching for “simulation” on web Games Solar System Simulator Simulating Fire Patterns in Heterogeneous Landscapes Arena Software Example 1, Example 2 ….. etc. 9 Reasons to Use Simulation mimic reality when the real system is not available costly to build dangerous to operate difficult to visualize slow in evolution difficult to predict how about analytical methods? both deterministic and stochastic systems 10 From System to Simulation 11 Applications of Simulation Interfaces simulation papers in 2007 & 2008 15 (out of 172) titles in two years simulation 15 network 14 IP 17 logistics 6 LP 12 DP 2 Inventory 16 forecasting 16 Statistic 3 NLP 3 SCM 22 marketing 10 12 Useful Information from Arena 13 Download Arena 12.0 McGraw-Hill Web site student center: download software, installation: STUDENT 14 Useful Information from Arena Start/All Programs/Rockwell Software/Arena/Online Books C:\Program Files\Rockwell Software\Arena Book Examples Examples Online Books Smarts 15 Systems, Models, and Simulation 16 System, Model, & Solution Role of models: describe, explain, predict, control, optimize system model solution Simulation: a special way to find the solution of a model 17 Our Simulation required knowledge modeling (state, dynamics, etc.) analysis (input, output, verification and validation, variance reduction, optimization) a computer language and a simulation package computer simulation, after all most for stochastic systems, though … 18 Pillars of Simulation modeling computer: simulation analysis: languages & software Which probability & statistics is the most important? 19 System, Model, & Solution how to represent a real system? stochastic inputs what information to carry model correctly (setting the model right)? correct model (setting the right model)? system model 20 art how to analyze? how to optimize? solution Issues to Simulate a System first: the amount of information to carry to represent the system (i.e., the state of the system) second: the evolution of the state of the system (i.e., the dynamics of the system) third: the medium to realize the (evolution of the) system fourth: the method to represent the system dynamics in the selected medium fifth: the analysis, control, and optimization of the simulation model 21 Examples simulation projects of increasing complexity well-defined dynamics chessboard differential equations well-defined problems simulation of real-life systems 22