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Transcript
Doomsday Clock Bulletin of atomic scientists www.thebulletin.org About the clock: • Established in 1947, after the U.S. used atomic weapons in WWII. • Method of reading nuclear danger. • The closer to midnight, the more dangerous the world becomes. What is the threat based on? • First and foremost, nuclear weapons. Greatest threat to mankind! • But it also includes climate-changing technologies and new developments in the life sciences. History of clock • 1953 | Two minutes to midnight The United States and the Soviet Union test thermonuclear devices within nine months of one another. • Two countries now have nukes! History continued… • 1963 | Twelve minutes to midnight The U.S. and Soviet signing of the Partial Test Ban Treaty, tensions ease after Cuban Missile Crisis. • Any treaty to reduce number of weapons will move clock back! History… Who’s laughing now Nixon? • 1968 | Seven minutes to midnight France and China acquire nuclear weapons. Great Britain also has nukes. History… • 1969 | Ten minutes to midnight The U.S. Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. • What is the NPT Treaty? Treaties are Law Based on NPT• Signed by 170 countries. • Big 5 committed to eliminate their nukes and to other countries committed to NOT developing weapons. • Did not sign, Cuba, South Africa, Israel, Pakistan, India, Brazil & Argentina. Non- Proliferation Treaty History… • 1974 | Nine minutes to midnight SALT talks reach an impasse; India develops a nuclear weapon. You gotta be kiddin’ me!!! History… • 1984 | Three minutes to midnight The arms race accelerates. • Reagan continues defense spending increases; including developing more nuclear weapons. I love my military History… • 1991 | Seventeen minutes to midnight The United States and the Soviet Union sign the START Treaty. • End of Cold War! • Furthest ever from midnight. Man, Rocky’s Speech worked!! Boris, I’m glad we are friends now. Drastic reductions after Cold War! History • 1998 | Nine minutes to midnight India and Pakistan "go public" with nuclear tests. India’s goin’ down!!!! You too? That’s It, I’m gonna go Fast… History • 2002 | Seven minutes to midnight The U.S. announces it will withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. • Terrorists seek to acquire and use nuclear and biological weapons. Excuse me, how can I get To the nearest black market? History • 2007/ Five Minutes to Midnight • North Korea tests a bomb. Now the North Koreans have weapons! • Axis of Evil! • 2012, N. Korea still has nuclear weapons! North Korea becomes a nuclear power? 2012, some believe Iran has nuclear weapons? Iran says NO Weapons! Others believe they are developing technology.. World’s Nuclear Arsenal 2010 • The world's combined stockpile of nuclear warheads remain at a very high level: more than 22,000. • Of these, some 4,800 warheads are considered operational, of which nearly 2,000 U.S. and Russian warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice. Best estimates based on FAS • • • • • • • #8: #7: #6: #5: #4 #3: #2: Pakistan: 90-110 nuclear warheads India: 80-110 Israel: 80 China: 240 Great Britain: 225 France: 300 USA: 8,500 FAS- Federation of American Scientist #1 Nuclear Power • #1: Russia 11,000 warheads. MAD- Mutually Assured Destruction- Russia & U.S. had so many nukes they could not attack each other! 2010/ 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT • International cooperation rules the day. Talks between U.S. & Russia. Start V Treaty. • Barack Obama becomes the first U.S. president to publicly call for a nuclearweapon-free world. • The dangers posed by climate change are still great, but there are pockets of progress. Why do countries want nuclear weapons? Deterrence Power & International Prestige Alliance building International Atomic Energy Agency Inspectors • The programs of the IAEA encourage the development of the peaceful applications of nuclear technology • Provide international safeguards against misuse of nuclear technology through IAEA Inspectors. Reports to the United Nations