Download Cuban Immigration Reform: A Working Model?

Cuban Immigration Reform:
A Working Model?
Written by Karin Swanson, Nellie Stoeckle,
Anna Ivanova, Mikhail Shebalkov
Existing Problem
• Due to the large wave of Cubans entering the country, the USA
made an agreement in September 1994 that would limit the
number of incoming Cubans to 20,000 annually.
In May 1995, it was announced that the Cubans in Guantanamo would
be permitted to enter the USA if they had no criminal history. In 1996,
these Cubans were officially admitted as parolees.
Congress amended the trade embargo in 2000 to allow agricultural
exports from the United States to Cuba. Total agricultural exports since
2001 reached $3,5 billion as of February 2012.
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Existing Problem
• The change in leadership of both the United States and
Cuba was supposed to provide openings for revisions in
U.S. policy on Cuban migration.
• This transfer of power between the Castro brothers led
some to question whether there would be much of an
opening for renewed migration talks between the United
States and Cuba.
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Current Legislation in U.S.
• DREAM Act, 2001
• “Wet foot, dry foot policy”
• “Dusty foot”
• Less contact with their families
(Bush politics)
• Denial if the entrance to anyone
who might be “detrimental”
to national interests (Cuban academics,
intellectuals, and professionals )
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Current legislation in Russia
• Restriction to hire
immigrants (retail
services)
• Immigrants quota
• Simplification of
procedures of getting
permanent residency
for ex-USSR citizens
• Construction in
Russia/agriculture in
the US
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Changing Legislation in U.S.
•
Raúl Castro, brother of Fidel Castro, took over leadership in 2008 and
formally assumed position of president in 2011;
• More liberal, yet still crucial restrictions controlling Cuban
immigration, with control still centralized within the government;
• Second term ends in 2018 - then what?
• US policy must be flexible to possibility of more conservative
successor;
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Changing Legislation in Russia
•
•
•
Union State of Russia and Belarus;
Provides a common citizenship;
2012 State Duma offered to hire 50 million immigrants to
build cities in Siberia;
• 2012 Putin said that immigration should be simplified for
those that know Russian;
This could be your home!
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Dataset for modeling
• Period: 2007-2011
• Factors:
– Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.
– Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
– Imports of goods and services (% of GDP).
– Exports of goods and services (% of GDP).
– The crude birth rate. The crude death rate. Fertility Rate.
– Share of urban population to total.
– The unemployment rate.
– Population of country.
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Correlation analysis
Correlation analysis: Number of migrated people (% of population).
Significant values are marked.
Popula
tion
Birth rate
Death
rate
Fertility
rate
Urban
pop.
Unemp.
rate
GDP
GNI
pc
Imports
Exports
Correlation
-0.23
0.05
-0.13
0.08
-0.24
0.19
-0.33
-0.24
0.54
0.31
Significance
99%
55%
90%
76%
99%
98%
99%
99%
99%
99%
Positive correlation stands for positive relation of the factor
variable to Number of migrated people (% of population).
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Artificial Neural Network
•
•
•
•
•
Network configuration: MLP 12-11-1
Algorithm to train ANN: BFGS-13
Activation function: Exponential
Training performance: 97.7%
Test performance: 83%
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Legislative Immigration Proposal
• General Plan:
– U.S. and Russia should focus on simplifying
immigration process for highly qualified
professionals;
– Develop immigration policy in connection with
economic projects (e.g. Skolkovo in Russia) to fill
the domestic sectors that are in demands;
– Create a government department (e.g. within the
INS in the U.S.; FMS in Russia) that uses
mathematical modeling;
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Specific Legislative Immigration
Proposal
• Russia:
– Stricter border control; restrict free migration;
– Set restrictions of migrants (e.g. Tajikistanis)
who want to purchase property to prevent whole
communities of immigrants from forming, making
further migration easier and limiting assimilation;
– Language and cultural exam to attract
immigrants who will assimilate into society or
provide for the benefit of the Russian people;
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Specific Legislative Immigration
Proposal
• United States (based on Immigration Reform
published today):
– Create start-up visa to encourage entrepreneurship,
attract the right type of migrant workers (e.g. not just
people who will become cheap laborers);
– Set visa restrictions on individuals, to prevent
families from migrating as a unit;
– Balance number of employment visas between
sectors;
– Develop relationship with Mexico to prevent Cubans
from entering through Mexico;
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Conclusion
Things to be done:
1. Provide incentives to Cubans who have the qualified
skills to meet the requirements of domestic U.S.
sectors
2. Policy towards Cuba / Tajikistan must be flexible
3. U.S. could build a partnership with Russia on the
topic of immigration, mentoring the latter on how to
address its own immigration issues and thus
strengthening US-Russia relations.
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