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University of Alaska-Anchorage * College of Business & Public Policy M A RKETING M G T. * Marketing Management Simulation * S I M U LA T I ON Course Intro & Overview M A RKETING M G T. Professor Ed Forrest S I M U LA T I ON • Telephone: – (O)786-4161 – (c) 854-8784 • Email: – [email protected] • W3site: http://www.cbpp.uaa.alaska.edu/afef/ Vita/Resume´ * MBA Program BA343 Principles of Marketing BA460 Marketing Management BA447 International Marketing BA635 Current Marketing Issues Seminar BA686 Management Simulation By End of this Course you will have: • Conducted a situational analysis of consumers, competitor & market conditions • Developed & implemented strategies & plans to enhance organizational performance • Selected—according to operant competitive strategy-appropriate performance assessment measures • Formulated a business plan based on the results of a market situation & SWOT analysis. • Formulated, implemented & assessed effectiveness of distinct competitive strategies • Determined & implemented specific tactical decisions that demonstrate functional alignment w/ selected competitive strategies Overarching Objectives: M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Test your business acumen “Sharpen” Strategic Development & Mgt Skills Demonstrate the criticality of functional integration to profitability/success…. Marketing R&D Finance Production HR M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON your “study” of business … piece-meal and in isolation! M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON UltimatelyReal Learning Occurs Not from parroting information gleaned from books & lectures! ….But from the consequences of your own actions M A RKETING M G T. Course Format S I M U LA T I ON M A RKETING M G T. LectureLearning S I M U LA T I ON Hear-Facts Store Facts Spit facts ‘ Superficial short-term knowledge M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Simulation proffers you opportunity to experience every key aspect of strategic thinking developed in past 100 years Strategic Thinkingthe ten big ideas M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas 1. Long-range planning- considers the external factors that affect success & integrates the various functional strategies. 2. Strategic analysis – – – – Market segmentation The lifecycle. SWOT analysis. Industry structure. M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas 3.Quality – Total quality management (TQM) and business process reengineering (BPR) 4. Portfolio theory– GE-(three-by-three matrix, using business strength & market attractiveness as variables). – The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) introduced its two-by-two matrix-(invest in the stars, divest the dogs, milk the cows, and solve the question marks) M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas 5. Scenario planning formulation of alternative possible futures for firm & its environment as means of exploring utility of different strategies. 6. Resource allocation models – Porter: strategic choices are set of basic generic strategies (low cost, differentiation, market focus) M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas 7. Corporate culture- corporate behavior, and in particular the resistance of the organization to change, is inevitably a function of its culture (Prof Thomas/ Penn St. able to predict final standings w/in 1 place 90% of time –after observing initial group interaction) 8. Leadership craft- Leaders responsible for assuring strategy links values of firm with its vision & that firm can successfully implement strategy thru effective HR mgt. M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Strategic thinking: the ten big ideas 9. Metrics that matter DuPont formula= concept of return on investment Balanced score card- a system that attempts to balance financial performance w/ consideration of customer's perspective, learning & growth perspective, & internal business process perspective 10. Strategic organization design -The strategic business unit (SBU) -- broadly defined as sets of related products & services marketed to similar customers against common competitors M A RKETING M G T. Looking back & ahead S I M U LA T I ON For years, corporate planners have based strategic choices on some combo of 3 beliefs: 1. the validity of their intuition 2. the wisdom of their peers 3. the robustness of last's year's strategy Recent Exception – “The promising attempts to apply scientific method to strategy formulation, ---notably the profit impact of market strategy (PIMS) research” M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Profit Impact of Market Strategy (PIMS) • 1st significant attempt to study correlation betw: strategic position & financial performance – Suggests: specific characteristics of an industry less important than shared strategic attributes, such as market share, quality, and investment intensity “Generically, profits are driven by the company’s asset base and by its efficiency working those assets” M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON You Da’ Boss … run a $100M business …. Your Product Line: SENSORS: M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Concepts & Processes Equally Applicable If Simulation Service Based: • Instead of Sensors Sold-Units of Production= – Customers served – Seats sold – Rooms rented – Patients seen – Members joined – Donations raised Agriculture Manufacturing Services 80% 70% % 60% o f 50% 40% G 30% N P 20% 10% 0% 1850 1950 2050 YOU… • Analyze the market, consumer, your company & competitive situation • Discern & implement your corp. growth & competitive strategies • Must make & integrate decisions in & across all functional areas (Marketing, Research & Development, Production, Human Resources and Finance). YOUR JOB • Take on key management positions w/in your corporation • Make the myriad of intertwined decisions necessary to create, produce & successfully market your products… You will Compete against other members of this class –running 5 other Corp’s …. • Andrews • Baldwin • Chester • Digby • Erie • Ferris Plus… your decisions & business performance will be compared against 1000+ other teams competing at other universities… around the world Product Place Target Market Price Promotion THE CAPSTONE SIMULATION Most widely used Business – Simulation Program in the World • Adopted by major Fortune 500 companies ..General Motors, General Electric, Honeywell, Dell, John Deere, Citibank, Alcoa, BP, Allstate, Samsung, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft… & How –to date-have we fared in this World-Wide Competition?? 2001 Top Ten Teams, World-Wide, for Round 8 • • • Top Ten Teams, World-Wide, for Round 8 by success measurement There are currently 940 active teams that have played Round 8. For a team to make this list: Cumulative Profits above 0 Overall Market Share (in dollars) greater then 5.0% Asset Turnover less then 8.0 Profit for Round 8 Round 8 - Mean - $ 25,324,003 Top Ten Active Teams Professor School/Course Simid Team Value 1 Dr. Minu Afza College of Business - Bloomsburg University 93 481 Business Policy & Strategy CAP1742 Digby $ 238,235,245 2 Mr. Bill Gardner Penn State University -Fayette Campus Contemporary Business Seminar CAP1513 Andrews $ 193,853,427 3 Dawn DeTienne University of Colorado at Boulder Senior Seminar CAP1656 Andrews $ 184,258,599 4 Prof. Howard Feldman University of Portland Managerial Decisions and Policy-Undergrad B CAP1787 Erie $ 181,422,390 Dr. Ed Forrest University of Alaska 5 Marketing Management CAP1611 Baldwin $ 163,281,864 6 Dr. Eric Wiseman University of Colorado at Boulder Business Senior Seminar CAP1818 Chester $ 157,930,382 7 Dr. Murrow Drury College Strategy and Policy Formulation CAP1838 Erie $ 149,235,238 8 Dr. Pettus Millikin University Business Policy CAP1748 Baldwin $ 147,967,873 9 Doug Mayer Hartwick College Management VII-secA CAP1811 Digby $ 137,339,216 10 Dr. Bruce A. Schooling Point Loma Nazarene University Strategic Management CAP1794 Digby $ 121,289 th 5 2003 Top Ten Teams, World-Wide, for Round 8 • For a team to make this list: Cumulative Profits above 0 Overall Market Share (in dollars) greater than 6% Asset Turnover less then 8.0 Your class was ranked: with 711 Capstone ® teams completing round 8 by Apr 12, 2003. teams per game of 6 Category: All • URL: http://www.capsim.com/prof/viewtopten.cfm?round=8&simid=C4806&version=K Date/Time: 04/12/2003 10:07:35 eNote: Text: Cumulative Profit for Round 8 - Mean - $ 125,355,000 Top Ten Active Teams Professor School/Course Simid Team Value 1 natalie marsh Strayer University Business Policy & Strategic Planning C4779 Baldwin $ 459,411,986 2 John Hall University of Florida Global Strategic Management I2MBA 2002 C4923 Baldwin $ 386,472,583 3 natalie marsh Strayer University Senior Seminar - Business Administration C4778 Erie $ 382,697,422 4 Peter Stanwick Auburn University Strategic Management C5095 Chester $ 353,185,127 5 John Pearce Villanova University Policy Administration C5033 Ferris $ 348,535,130 6 Gavin Fox Georgia Southern University BUSINESS SIMULATION C5041 Digby $ 343,761,703 7 Shirley Schooley Birmingham-Southern College Strategic Management Senior Project Course Sec B C5356 Digby $ 341,865,002 8 natalie marsh Strayer University Senior Seminar - Business Administration C4778 Ferris $ 339,568,171 • th 9 9 Edward Forrest University of Alaska Marketing Management C4806 Chester $ 333,620,198 10 Donald Kreps Kutztown University mba capstone C4797 Digby $ 327,188,363 2005 - #1 2006- 5 th and th 8 2007 rd 3 Your Industry C28608 was ranked: completing round 8 by Apr 20, 2009. st 1 , th & 5 th 8 in ROE ROE for Round 8 - Mean - 15.62% Top Ten Active Teams Professor School/Course Simid Team Value 1 Edward Forrest Management Simulation C28608 2 Steven Williamson Adv Strategic Mngmt & Business Policy C28387 Andrews 104.15% 3 Mike Pettus Capstone Simulation C30105 Andrews 70.64% 4 Dharam Pal IIM EGMP-11 IIMB C28693 58.48% 5 Edward Forrest Management Simulation C28608 53.79% 6 k c oshaughnessy business strategy C29286 50.12% 7 Ray Grubbs Strategic Management: Concepts & Applications C28441 49.15% 8 Edward Forrest Management Simulation C30061 48.65% 9 Mike Pettus Capstone Simulation C30105 Digby 48.50% 10 Tracy Stewart Capstone C28364 Andrews 46.10% 189.60% Marketing Management Simulation Today- we will: 1.Step back & take a look at the “Big Picture” 2.Overview the simulation 3. Incorporate & begin analysis of “your situation…” The Big Picture Situation/SWOT Analysis Strategic Planning •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Functional Integration Marketing Performance Assessment Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance Initial Weeks Mirror Process of Planning & Evaluating Strategy Research: Situation & SWOT Analysis Performance Assessment: Success Measures & Financial Ratios Strategic Planning Growth, Competitive, positioning Strategies Functional Planning: Marketing Production R&D, HR Finance Situation/SWOT Analysis Strategic Planning Functional Integration Performance Assessment Step#1 •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Marketing Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance •Political •Economic •Socio-cultural •Technological Conditions •Market Potential (size, growth rate) •Customer Behavior (needs & Customers wants/ segmentation, price sensitivity) •Industry Structure Analysis (entry/exit barriers, buyers, sellers, substitutes) Company •Competitor Response Profiles •Economic Analysis (costs, (capabilities, current and future actions) •Company Fit profitability) Competitors (strengths, weaknesses, resources, culture, goals) SWOT Analysis Identifies: S W O T Things the company does well. Internal External Things the company does not do well. Conditions in the external environment that favor strengths. Conditions in the external environment that do not relate to existing strengths or favor©South-Western areas ofCollege current Publishingweakness. Situation/SWOT Analysis Strategic Planning Functional Integration Performance Assessment Step#2 •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Marketing Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance The Options: • To Grow : Expand in current and/or new markets with current and/or new Products • To Compete: • Proffer cheaper and/or better products • Focus on all or selected segments of the market Growth Strategies PRODUCT Present Present Market Penetration New Product Development MARKET New Market Development Diversification Competitive Strategies Situation/SWOT Analysis Strategic Planning Step#3 •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Functional Integration Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Marketing Performance Assessment Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance Need to Align Your Functional Strategies CrossFunctional Integration & Alignment Execute & Achieve your Growth & Competitive Strategy-Only when— E All Decisions made by & within all functional areas are in sync w/ one another… FINANC PRODUCTION MARKETING Functional Alignment: In Achieving Cost Efficiency Functional Alignment: Implementing Differentiation Strategy Situation/SWOT Analysis Strategic Planning Functional Integration Performance Assessment Step#4 •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Marketing Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Capstone's Performance Measures 1) Cumulative Profits 2) Market Share 3) ROA 4) ROS 5) ROE 6) Asset Turnover 7) Stock Price 8) Market Capitalization Moving on: 1.Step back & take a look at the “Big Picture” 2.Overview the simulation 3. Incorporate & begin analysis of “your situation…” SHAKE UP IN SENSOR INDUSTRY Management Teams Fired “After poor results, lackluster sales and angry customer reports……….. New dynamic leadership teams needed to take industry into the future!” M A N A G E M E N T S I M U LA T I O N M A N A G E M E N T You are responsible for: S I M U LA T I O N •Company •Consumers •Competitors •Conditions • PEST Growth & Competitive Strategies Functional Integration Marketing Profits Mrkt Share ROA R&D ROS Production ROE Asset T/O Stock HR Mrkt Cap Finance M A N A G E M E N T S IM U L A T I O N Your duties include ALL those of the CEO – … define the mission-vision & strategic direction of your company M A N A G E M E N T S IM U L A T I O N …and serve as manager of every functional domain Production R&D Marketing Finance HR M A N A G E M E N T As MARKETING MANAGER S IM U L A T I O N You’re will be responsible for: Planning, implementing & controlling your marketing strategy Product Place Target & Position Price Promotion Marketing Managers become one-w/ Relationships betw M A N A G E M E N T S IM U L A T I O N • Price & demand • Price & margin • Promotion budget & awareness • Sales budget & accessibility • A/R policy & demand MARKETING MANAGER SIMULATION SPREADSHEET Set price of your products in the marketplace Set the sales forecast for our products Set Credit Policies AR/AP Build customer awareness through promotion Establish a sales force and distribution channels •Marketing also selects media vehicles & message weights • AND determines composition of sales/distribution staff ..and allocation of their efforts by segment & Brand M A N A G E M E N T As Production Mgr: S IM U L A T I O N Set automation levels Buy or sell capacity Schedule production Work overtime or automate PRODUCTION MANAGER SIMULATION SPREADSHEET Schedule production for each line Buy or sell capacity of product lines Purchase machinery to automate our facilities Establish your workforce complement M A N A G E M E N T As R&D Mgr S IM U L A T I O N A SIZE B Performance Responsible for: Product Position Age & Quality New product development High High Eight < < < Low Quality Low Age One Prdt Line R&D MANAGER SIMULATION SPREADSHEET Establish product positioning to meet customer demand Build quality & reliability (MTBF) into products Create new products Ensure age of product meets customer demands M A R KE T I N G As Human Resource Manager--Responsible for: M A N A G E M E N T • Recruitment, Hiring, Training & Firing of all labor • 2 groups: – Assemblers – Technicians Wages Benefits SIMULATION SPREADSHEET As FINANCIAL MANAGER M A N A G E M E N T Acquire Capital S IM U L A T I O N –Issue Stock –Short Term Debt –Issue Long Term Bonds Set Dividend Retire Long Term Bonds Retire Stock • Responsible for Emergency Loans Big AL The Loan Shark FINANCIAL MANAGER SIMULATION SPREADSHEET Finally: 1. Step back & take a look at the “Big Picture” 2. Overview the simulation 3. Incorporate & begin analysis of “your situation…” st 1 Reorganize Company: & allocate responsibilities: Marketing Production R&D Finance HR 2 Co-CEO’s M A RKETING M G T. Begin Situation-Analysis S I M U LA T I ON Company Consumer Situation Analysis Competitors Conditions The Situation- Specifically…determine Company Consumer Competitors Conditions Strengths & weaknesses w/in & across all functional areas; Profile of current product portfolio… How market is segmented; Level of & relevant factors that influence consumer demand & purchasing decisions Your competitors relative market positions.. Macro-E considerations especially technological trends … 1st part Situation Analysis is Environmental Scanning Environmental Scanning= The process of identifying the nature & magnitude of Uncontrollable forces in the external (macro) environment exerting significant influence on your strategies… EXTERNAL-UNCONTROLLABLE FORCES: Impacting Strategies Competitors Consumers Political Technological Technological Regulatory Economic Social Demographic Psychographic trends At Outset your sim-environment a bit more benign than real world Your company & all competitors generating ~$100 million in sales. There no outside competitors or product substitutes. A favorable economic environment features moderate growth, low inflation, historically averaged interest rates No economic downturns or other surprises expected. Sim designed this way for one reason ….want all strategic options available to you. That way- whatever happens as market evolves will be driven by the tactical execution of strategies, not by external factors. The MarketPlace•Opportunities & Threats: •Ascertain how the market is organized, operates, influenced & evolving The Marketplace Initially one segment, now breaking into five Very different customer demands developing between the segments Diversification in the use and utility of the sensors P E R C E P T U A L M A P Size 19 18 2 17 4 16 15 1 14 13 3 5 12 11 10 9 PERCEPTUAL Drift Demonstration MAP 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Performance Plot the drift of each segment MAP circle as simulation proceeds thru 8 rounds ("Fine Cut" circles have a radius of 2.5 units, "Rough Cut" circles have a radius of 4 units) PERCEPTUAL Can track changing customer demand… Low Tech Performance Traditional Size High Tech Over next 8 years -customers will demand faster – smaller-cheaper sensors Accordingly-Market Segments will diverge Your Consumers Specifically…determine Company Consumer Competitors Conditions Strengths & weaknesses w/in & across all functional areas; Profile of current product portfolio… How market is segmented; Level of & relevant factors that influence consumer demand & purchasing decisions Your competitors relative market positions.. Macro-E considerations especially technological trends … Consumer Buying Criteria Determinant Attributes •Low End customers seek old, simple & cheap tech. •Performance customers seek advanced tech., w/ high reliability & performance •Traditional customers seek proven products using current technology •Size customers seek advanced sensors that focus on small size •High End customers seek cutting-edge sensors in both size & performance KEY POINT Strive to meet customers preferences … Don’t spend limited resources (time & $) meeting lesser concerns SENSOR INDUSTRY ANALYST PROJECT ONGOING GROWTH Sees the next 8 years as consistent growth. All market segments increase at a nice “clip,” according to market analyst. “I see the entire market growing at around 14% or 15% per year. The High Tech market alone will be growing at a whopping 16%.” 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 I hope those companies out there are ready for that kind of expansion!” 0 Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key Demand Consideration: Overall market growing @ ~ 14%/yr “Average” company should/could double sales in 6 years Key Capacity Consideration: DEMAND ANALYSIS This analysis examines growth of customer demand as simulation proceeds thru 8 rounds. For this exercise you need the Market Segment Analysis pages (pages 5 - 9) of The Capstone Courier- Round 0 W/in Segment Statistics-Use the Industry Unit Demand - top left corner Traditional Statistics Total Industry Unit Demand 7,387 Actual Industry Unit Sales 7,387 Segment % of Total Industry 32.4% Growth Rate 9.2% Page 5 capstone Courier 7387 X 1.092=8067 7387 Demand Analysis Page 30 TMG EXTERNAL Consumer, Competitive & Macro- Environment UNCONTROLLABLE Competitive Demographic Psychographic trends CONTROLLABLE Corp./Business STRATEGY Finance Forces Technological Legal Environment Economic Social Political INTERNAL Marketing/R&D Production/HR Regulatory Specifically…determine Company Consumer Competitors Conditions Strengths & weaknesses w/in & across all functional areas; Profile of current product portfolio… How market is segmented; relevant factors that influence consumer demand & purchasing decisions Your competitors relative market positions.. Macro-E considerations especially technological trends … 2 Big Q’s 1. Is what you are making any good? 2. & is how you are making it—as good as it could/should be? Company Portfolio Analysis Analyze company’s products w/ respect to: How good your product is…. & How good is the market you sell it in Boston Consulting Group’s Growth-Share Matrix High Product-Market Growth (%) STARS Low PROBLEM CHILD CASH COWS 10x 4x High DOGS 2x 1.5x 1x Relative Market Share .5x Low .2x .1x Customer Satisfaction Evaluation Scheme: Attribute Poor Price Top1/3 Reliability Bttm1/3 Age +1yr Position +1.5 units Awarenes <50% s Access <50% Overall How Rate Fair Mid1/3 Mid1/3 .6-1yr .6-1.5 50-80% Good Bttm1/3 Top1/3 ~.5yrs w/in .5 80%+ 50-80% 80%+ On Top 2 Attributes INTERNAL W S From results… can determine Strengths & Weaknesses of current marketing mix: Product - Positioning; age & quality (reliability)-- O T EXTERNAL Current levels of support w/ respect to: • Promotion • Distribution (accessibility) • Pricing - policy/competitiveness INTERNAL 2nd Big Q W S O T EXTERNAL What are the S & W’s w/ respect to your company’s production lines capacities & efficiencies • & Finally – need to Answer 5 key Financial Questions 1) How liquid is your firm? 2) How profitable is your Firm? 3) How effectively are you utilizing your assets ? 4) How are you financing your assets? 5) Are you providing your owners an adequate return on their investment ? Ascertaining Your Company's Strengths & Weaknesses: Financials Production & HR Marketing & R&D M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Questions? M A RKETING M G T. S I M U LA T I ON Can I be excused my brain is full..