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Inconvenient Truths and
Uncertain Futures
Summary of HC 434: Physics and
Politics of Global Climate Change
Our basic Expectation
Long wavelength
absorption properties of our
atmosphere increase the
surface temperature- Water
vapor is the dominant
effect, followed by CO2
Ice Core data
 Provides compelling qualitative evidence
of the relation between temperature and
CO2
 But time resolution is insufficient to truly
show if CO2 is a driver or follower of
temperature change
Hockey Stick Problems
 Role of urbanization may not be
adequately account for
 Average temperature of the Earth may
not be a physically meaningful quantity.
 Reliability of multi-century record is
questionable
 Two D representation is most convincing
Methane
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Potential role of methane is larger than CO2
GWP = 21
Scales with population growth
Released from permafrost
Released from hydrate deposits
Emissions now rising again due to global
wetlands returning from prolonged drought
Competition among anthropogenic
forces
Feedbacks are huge uncertainty
Solubility of CO2 is decreasing;
Ocean sink now less than before
Ocean PH Rising
Oceans no longer scale with
increasing emissions
Future Scenarios
Really, Three Choices
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BAU because we can’t learn or don’t know
how to do anything differently  react to
disasters as they come
A1T: Alternative energy technology and
fuels will come in time
B1: We do what Cronon suggests 
understand that wilderness is everywhere
and behave accordingly
Carbon Trading
Emission space is fixed  bid or contract
on emissions
 Effective trading requires many sources of
generation
 What process determines size of emission
space?
 What is the penalty for exceeding your
emissions cap?
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Carbon Market
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In principle is very large, but how
oversees it, accounts for it, verifies it?
Note that the CDM is
supposed to
encourage China to
switch from Coal to
Natural Gas to lower
its share of the carbon
market. This is not
happening to date
Carbon, Capture and Storage
Without a real market, what’s the
incentive for CCS?
 CCS technologies are not mature and need
to be tested.
 Porosity of sequestration needs to be
tested: only sure reserve is deep ocean
 CCS the most politically sensible pathway
to stablization

Stabilization and Wedges
1 Wedge = 1 Gigaton of Carbon per year
 This is a global effort
 Again, real carbon market could help
provide various incentives
 And remember, global carbon emissions
are now increasing annually
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Gaining a Wedge
• Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars
from 30 to 60 mpg
• or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30
mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000
• Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in
buildings by 25%
• Increase coal fired electricity efficiency
from 40% to 60% using advanced high
temperature materials
IPCC Scenarios
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Once again, three real choices
Remain Market Driven
Hope that technological leaps occur
Adopt the kind of global morality/consciousness
that is needed to reduce personal consumption.
Electricity use scale as (pop. Growth)3.5
Increasing global inequity should no longer be
tolerated. Aren’t all men created equal?
Your generation is inheriting the legacy of greed
Resource Depletion
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Global resource use took a sudden uptick
starting around 2000
The world is currently in the most
unsustainable epoch in history !
We Are At Peak Oil!!
Global Carbon Intensity is
Increasing
Sustainability, My Ass
Markets need an ethical dimension
Waveform of Fuckedness
Raisins for Everyone
Along with Malaria
And we Policy Wank our way along
 "The United States is committed to reducing the
greenhouse gas intensity of the American
economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period
from 2002 to 2012. “
Whoops 
Which box do we want to be in?
What to Do?
Subversive videos on You Tube don’t hurt
Drive less; Period. Period. Period.
Act according to Cronon’s imperative:
Wilderness is Everywhere
Properly factor in avoidance costs in
economic modeling of climate change
20 Million College Students
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Have inherited this world
Your Choice Matrix: Give up or Not: