Download Daniel Energetics Model Poster 2009

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Transcript
The Caribou Energetics Model –
Updates and Applications
Don Russell, Bob White, Colin Daniel
Model Objective
•To predict daily body condition of individual caribou in response to activity, habitat and
environment
Why Build it?
•Integrates understanding of caribou biology
•Predicts how caribou will respond to changes in their environment
•Allows for “what-if” type scenario analyses (e.g. industrial development, climate change)
•Helps explain differences in productivity of herds
Energy for Activity & Maintenance
Intake Submodel
Model Approach
Forage
Objective: To predict daily body condition of
individual caribou in response to activity, habitat
and environment
Model
Forage Quality
Allocation Submodel
Available Forage Intake
Cell Content
Diet
Rumen
Cell Wall
Energy & Nitrogen for Summer Protein Deposition
Digestible
Forage
Energy & Nitrogen
Base Nitrogen Requirement
Digestible
Cell Content
Digestible
Cell Wall
Energy & Nitrogen for Gestation
Non-digestible
Intake
Submodel
Energy & Nitrogen for Lactation
Energy
Rumen
Nitrogen
Digestible Cell Content
Pool
Non-digestible
Pool
Digestible Cell Wall
Pool
Energy & Nitrogen for Additional Protein Deposition
Fat Reserves
Protein Reserves
Activity Budget
Snow Depth
Allocation
Submodel
Fetus and/or Milk
Activity &
Maintenance
Energy for Fat Deposition
Metabolizable Energy Intake (MEI)
Feces
Base Nitrogen
Requirement
Model Revisions
Make model more open and accessible
•All equations fully documented
•Code can be reviewed and modified (using Visual Basic)
•Output can be generated for any model variable
Improve ease of use
•Graphical comparison of alternative model scenarios
•Modular approach for sharing parameters between herds
•Built-in capability to edit model inputs in Excel
•Capability to do stochastic Monte Carlo simulations
Include protein dynamics
Better estimates of how absorbed Nitrogen meets
requirements for maintenance (protein turnover) and
growth (body, hide, antlers), and for redistribution to fetus
during gestation and milk protein during lactation, as well
as protein degradation during under-nutrition.
Recent Applications
The model was used in a demonstration project to project the cumulative impacts
of development and climate change on the Bathurst caribou herd
110
105
100
Sce nario 8: be st climate
Body weight (kg)
95
90
Sce nario 2: av e rage climate
85
80
75
70
65
60
27-May
Sce nario 5: worst climate
16-Jun
06-Jul
26-Jul
15-Aug
Date
04-Sep
24-Sep
14-Oct
03-Nov