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Download Daniel Energetics Model Poster 2009
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The Caribou Energetics Model – Updates and Applications Don Russell, Bob White, Colin Daniel Model Objective •To predict daily body condition of individual caribou in response to activity, habitat and environment Why Build it? •Integrates understanding of caribou biology •Predicts how caribou will respond to changes in their environment •Allows for “what-if” type scenario analyses (e.g. industrial development, climate change) •Helps explain differences in productivity of herds Energy for Activity & Maintenance Intake Submodel Model Approach Forage Objective: To predict daily body condition of individual caribou in response to activity, habitat and environment Model Forage Quality Allocation Submodel Available Forage Intake Cell Content Diet Rumen Cell Wall Energy & Nitrogen for Summer Protein Deposition Digestible Forage Energy & Nitrogen Base Nitrogen Requirement Digestible Cell Content Digestible Cell Wall Energy & Nitrogen for Gestation Non-digestible Intake Submodel Energy & Nitrogen for Lactation Energy Rumen Nitrogen Digestible Cell Content Pool Non-digestible Pool Digestible Cell Wall Pool Energy & Nitrogen for Additional Protein Deposition Fat Reserves Protein Reserves Activity Budget Snow Depth Allocation Submodel Fetus and/or Milk Activity & Maintenance Energy for Fat Deposition Metabolizable Energy Intake (MEI) Feces Base Nitrogen Requirement Model Revisions Make model more open and accessible •All equations fully documented •Code can be reviewed and modified (using Visual Basic) •Output can be generated for any model variable Improve ease of use •Graphical comparison of alternative model scenarios •Modular approach for sharing parameters between herds •Built-in capability to edit model inputs in Excel •Capability to do stochastic Monte Carlo simulations Include protein dynamics Better estimates of how absorbed Nitrogen meets requirements for maintenance (protein turnover) and growth (body, hide, antlers), and for redistribution to fetus during gestation and milk protein during lactation, as well as protein degradation during under-nutrition. Recent Applications The model was used in a demonstration project to project the cumulative impacts of development and climate change on the Bathurst caribou herd 110 105 100 Sce nario 8: be st climate Body weight (kg) 95 90 Sce nario 2: av e rage climate 85 80 75 70 65 60 27-May Sce nario 5: worst climate 16-Jun 06-Jul 26-Jul 15-Aug Date 04-Sep 24-Sep 14-Oct 03-Nov
