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Transcript
1 – Environmental Threats
Environmental threats
The Sustainability Problem,
Environmental Impact of Economic
Activities, The Nature of Environmental
Threats, Climate Change
1/25
1/65
1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
Environment and
Climate
The Sustainability Problem,
Environmental Impact of Economic
Activities, The Nature of Environmental
Threats, Climate Change
2/25
2/65
1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
Contents
•
•
•
•
The Sustainability Problem
The Nature of Environmental Threats
Current Global Environmental Threats
The Challenge of Climate Change
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Sustainability Problem (1)
Development involves a progressive
transformation of economy and society. A
development path that is sustainable in a physical
sense could theoretically be pursued even in a
rigid social and political setting. But physical
sustainability cannot be secured unless
development policies pay attention to such
considerations as changes in access to resources
and in the distribution of costs and benefits. Even
the narrow notion of physical sustainability
implies a concern for social equity between
generations, a concern that must logically be
extended to equity within each generation.
Economic sustainability
Environmental sustainability
Social sustainability
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WCED Our Common Future
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Sustainability Problem (2)
People
Sustainability:
sectoral aspects
Decisions
Planet
Profit
5/25
interdependence
5/65
1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Sustainability Problem (2)
Sustainability:
temporal aspects
…Sustainable development is
development that meets the
needs of the present without
compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their
own needs …
WCED Our Common Future
2008
2009
2025
…??
6/25
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Sustainability Problem (3)
We want to sustain ‘people, planet, profit’ &
We want economic growth
But…
There are:
• Environmental limits to growth
• Social limits to growth
Limits to economic growth??
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Sustainability Problem (4)
Whatever the outcomes of our discussion might be,
finding an optimal balance between ‘people, planet,
profit’ is a complex task.
In this lecture, we pay attention to the planet-profit
interdependence, with special concern for the
‘planet’:
a. Environmental impact of economic activity
b. Characterisation of environmental threats
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (1)
• Many environmental impacts are caused by
socio-economic activities
• The environmental impact of these activities can
be expressed by the IPAT identity:
I : Environmental Impact (Caused by Environmental
Interventions in mass
or volume)
P : Population Size
A : Affluence
T : Technology
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (2)
P : Increasing population
Population of the world, 1950-2050
focus
A : Affluence  economic growth in developed and developing
countries (units: $, GDP/capita, € etc.)
T : Technology  material use, resource consumption and waste
generation per unit production (units: mass)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Nature of Environmental Threats (1)
…’Technology’ imposes threats on the environment by
inserting and extracting materials:
• Pollution to…
 Fresh Air
 Fresh Water
 Soil
• Exhaustion of Natural Capital from…
 Air
 Water
 Soil
Pollution
interdependence
Natural Capital
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Nature of Environmental Threats (2)
• Pollution problems depend on:
• Environmental impact potential of materials
• Spatial scale of impact
• Damage potential (severity of hazards)
• Degree of exposure
hazard
• Remediation and reversibility time
• Quantity of materials used (throughput)
• Exhaustion problems depend on:
• Current use of natural capital &
• Future availability
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throughput
Pollution from materials perspective
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Nature of Environmental Threats (3)
Environmental threats occur at different scales:
• Global threats
• Regional threats
• Local threats
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
Current Environmental Threats









Climate Change
Ozone Depletion
Exhaustion of Natural Resources
Sea level rise
Desertification
Erosion
Loss of biodiversity
Destruction natural habitats
Etc.
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Global, regional and local
threats are connected
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Challenge of Climate Change (1)
A
B
The severe characteristics of Climate Change:
• Global environmental threat
• Attributable to economic activities
• Caused by enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions that
accumulate in the atmosphere
And…the large variety and scale of impact categories:
•
•
•
•
Human health
Ecosystems
Sea level rise
Socio-economic equity
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.1 Environment and Climate
The Challenge of Climate Change (2)
C
And…the future time scale of Climate Change impacts
(emissions of today are the problems of tomorrow)
A
+
B
+
C
• Climate Change is a serious threat to sustainability
• Climate Change is a big challenge to our society
• We need to act TODAY
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Global Environmental
Threats
Climate Change, Ozone
Depletion, Exhaustion of Natural
Resources
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Contents
•
•
•
•
Current Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Global Threats
Impacts of Global Threats
Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Developing
Countries
• Global Threats and Environmental Policy
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Current Global Environmental Threats
 Climate Change
 Ozone Depletion
 Exhaustion of Natural Resources:
• Fossil Fuels (non renewable energy resources)
• Fresh Water
• Minerals: Global Copper (example)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Climate Change, a Very Global Issue!
“We…are confronting a planetary emergency - a threat to the survival of
our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential…But
there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and
avoid the worst - though not all - of its consequences, if we act boldly, 20/25
decisively and quickly.”
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Signals of Global Warming
• Temperature changes worldwide, since 1970:
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Changes in near surface temperature 1970-2004
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Global Warming and the Future
• “Additional warming is already in the pipeline due to past and present
emissions” (Stern 2006)
Prospective surface warming for different
scenarios in the absence of climate change
policies and relative to 1980-1999
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Climate Change (4)
Greenhouse Gases:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
ChloroFluorCarbons
Hydrochloro-fluorocarbons
Hydrofluorocarbons
Halons
Carbon tetrachloride
The greenhouse effect. A “thicker”
blanket of greenhouse gases traps
more infrared radition and raises
temperatures
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Impacts of Climate Change
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Economic Impacts of Global Warming on
Developing Countries (1)
The vulnerability to global warming depends upon three factors:
Factors determining the vulnerability to climate change.
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Economic Impacts of Global Warming on
Developing Countries (2)
• There is a correlation between global warming and economic
development
• Countries differ in their vulnerabiliy to economic impacts of global
warming and climate change
• The economic impacts of global warming are not evenly
distributed over rich and poor countries (Mendelsohn et al. 2006)
• Economic impacts of global warming in developing countries
relate to their current climate, geographic exposure and
dependency on climate sensitive economic sectors (e.g.
agriculture)
 “impacts are proportionally greater and the ability to adapt
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smaller” (Stern, 2006)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Economic Impacts of Global Warming on
Developing Countries (3)
• In cooler regions: less severe winters, increased food production
• In warmer regions: increased flooding, heat waves and droughts,
increased pests, crop diseases and weeds (Miller 2003)
Economic
Welfare
Cooler Areas
Warmer/tropical
Regions
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Adapted from Mendelsohn et al. 2006)
Temperature
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Ozone Depletion (1)
Thinning of ozone layer that keeps most of sun’s harmful ultraviolet
(UV) radiation from reaching the earth’s surface
1979
1988
2000
2002
The changes in size of the Ozonehole above Antartica during 1979 until 2002
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Ozone Depletion (2)
Characteristics of Ozone depletion problem:
• Ozone thinning varies with altitude, location and season
• Seasonal variation of ‘ozone thinning’, due to polar processes
• In 2000, largest seasonal ozone thinning ozone hole above
Antartica, which covered an area of 3 times the USA (Miller, 2004)
• Recovering of Ozone layer will take 50-100 years (Miller, 2004)
• Ozone depletion is expected to be worst during 2010 and 2019
(NASA’Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Miller, 2004)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Ozone Depletion
• The mechanism of ozone (O3) depletion by ChloroFluoroCarbons
(CFCs)
• Example: Reactions of CCl3F (CFC species)
CCl3F + UV  Cl + CCl2F
Cl + O3  ClO + O2
ClO + O  CL + O2
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Impacts of Ozone Depletion
 Human Health: Sunburn, Eye cataracts, skin cancer
 Food: Reduced yields, seafood supplies
 Forests: Decreased forest productivity
 Wildlife: Eye cataracts, reduced population of phytoplankton
 Air pollution: photochemical smog
 Materials: degradation of buildings (acid deposition), outdoor
paints and plastics
 Global warming: accelerated warming because of lower CO2
uptake by phytoplankton and CFCs as GHGs
(Miller, 2003)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)
• Exhaustion depends on how current use affects future availability
(Perman et al. 2003)
Flow Resources: No link between current use and future availability
Examples: Wind, Solar, Wave power
Natural Resources
Stock Resources:
Level of current
use does affect
future availability
Renewable Resources: potential of
natural reproduction (crops etc.)
Non-Renewable Resources: fossil
fuels, minerals, fresh water
• Natural Resource Depletion: Exhaustion of Non-Renewable
Resources
• Fossil Fuels
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• Fresh Water
• Minerals: Global Copper (example)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Exhaustion of Natural Resources (2)
• Fossil fuels: Consumption of natural
gas and coal for electricity generation
will increase in the near future
World Electricity Generation by Fuel for 2004 and 2030
Minerals: significant extractions
of Copper (example). However,
recycling is possible, which may
delay the exhaustion process
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Global Copper cycle . The units are Gg Cu/year;
Lith=Lithosphere
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Exhaustion of Natural Resources (3)
• Fresh Water
• Fresh water is not
evenly distributed:
•
•
•
•
geographically
in time
in quality
politically
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)
Fossil fuels: increasing energy demand, in particular from
developing countries
Energy Use in Developing Countries (not participating
in Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development) from 2004- 2030
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Average Annual Growth in Energy Consumption
by region and end-use sector, 2004- 2030
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Exhaustion of Natural Resources (2)
Minerals: high demand from developed and developing countries,
in particular Asia
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Copper entering use in 9 world regions in 1994.
The units are Gg Cu/year; Lith=Lithosphere
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Causes of Exhaustion of Natural Resources (3)
Fresh Water: pollution and inefficient use
 Pollution of fresh water resources
 Agricultural use of water:
 17% of cropland irrigated, producing 1/3 of world food supply, using
± 70% of water for human use
 < 50% of water reaches the crops - rest (leaking from pipes/canals,
evaporating) re-enters hydrological cycle, degraded by pesticides,
fertilizers, .. causing surface-/groundwater pollution while wasting
chemicals
 Potable water is used for activities not requiring potable water quality
 5 – 70% distribution losses – loss of water, loss of chemicals, loss of energy
 Inefficient industrial use of water: Processes often obsolete, high water to
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product ratio, large amounts of wastewater disposal
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Impacts of Exhaustion of Natural Resources
• Fossil fuels: energy crises, increased CO2 emissions because of
increased coal consumption; scarcity may increase the cost
effectiveness of renewable energy options (solar, wind, wave power)
• Minerals: increasing scarcity, rising prices for commodities. Use of
secondary copper from recycling becomes more attractive.
• Water:
 1.2 billion lack potable water
 because of pollution of nearby sources, raw water from ever larger
distances
 2.3 billion suffer from diseases linked to water, causing some 12
million deaths – mostly children - a year
 > 50% of world’s major rivers endanger human health and poison
surrounding ecosystems
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Global Threats and Environmental Policy (1)
Our atmosphere can’t tell the difference between emissions from an Asian factory, the exhaust
from a North American SUV, or deforestation in South America or Africa.” UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-Moon
“the time to act is now”
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon
Business is ready to move into the low-emissions era, but
needs the appropriate policy framework from governments
to do so,” UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer
There is a water crisis, but it is a crisis of management
resulting from bad institutions, bad governance, bad incentives,
and bad allocation of resources (World Water Vision, 2000)
UN Breakthrough on climate change reached in Bali; Indonesian Environment Minister and President
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of the conference, Rachmat Witoelar said: “We now have a Bali roadmap, we have an agenda and we have
a deadline.” “But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so
we need to move quickly,”
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.2 Global Environmental Threats
Global Threats and Environmental Policy (2)
Global threats
require
global solutions !!
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Regional Environmental
Threats
Acidification, Water Pollution, Soil
Degradation and Desertification
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats
Regional Threats
Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion
Soil Degradation and Desertification
Policy Options
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats
Examples of Regional threats:
 Acidification
 Desertification
 Erosion
 Destruction of natural
habitats
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Spatial Characteristics of Environmental Threats
N.B.!
Spatial scale of impact: the distance between ‘cause’ (emission)
and ‘effect’ (damage);
Same substance can be local, regional or even global pollutant
• Examples:
 Air: particulate matter, volatile organic compounds (local);
sulfur and nitrogen oxides, ozone (local and regional)
 Water and soil: toxic substances (leaching of heavy metals
from landfills to soil (local impact) and ground- and surface
water (regional impact)
• Regional (or global!) pollutants can have local effects
• Some local emissions can have regional or even global 44/25
effects
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (1)
• Acidification from acid deposition





Slower growth, injury and death of forests
Health effects
Lower fish rates in lakes
Deterioration of buildings
Leaching of toxic metals
from water pipes
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (2)
• Air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2):
transported far away from emission points to place of deposition
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The mechanism of acid depostion (Source: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8h.html
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion
(1)
• Destruction of water ecosystems and fish habitats
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion
(2)
Water Pollution
Receiving
waters
Groundwater
Surface water
Lakes, rivers, oceans
Sources
Leaching from soils
E.g. Landfills
Point sources
E.g. Industrial
discharges in rivers
Non-point sources
E.g.Agriculture,
urban stormwater
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runoff
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion
(3)
• Often, environmental interventions
are connected
• Example: deforestation, soil
depletion and water contamination
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Downstream sequence of events
following the clearcutting of a slope
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion
(4): Consequences
• Example Africa: Fresh water shortage and socio-economic impacts
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Soil Degradation and Desertification
• Pressure on food production results in soil degradation etc.
• ongoing deforestation
• wind/water erosion
• overuse of
agricultural
chemicals
• poor irrigation
practices (salt
build-up/water
logging)
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
How is Business Involved (1)
• Industrial emissions of NOx and SO2 from burning fossil
fuels
• Inefficient water use during production processes:
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• Too high water-to-product ratio
• Drinking water quality when high quality is not required
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
Gaseous waste
How is Business Involved (2)
The industrial mass
and energy balance
Heat
Solid waste
Raw materials
Energy
Liquid waste
Products
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.3 Regional Environmental Threats
How is Business Involved (3)
•
•
•
•
•

depletion of resources - mining, clean water/air/soil, soil minerals
dilution of resources - metals, organics, nutrients,
pollution of resources - water/air/soil
damage to resources - chemicals into stratosphere
Waste generation (Eco-management Guide, 1998):
producing environment unfriendly products (dyes, synthetic fibres,
paints and plastics - chemical industry) and by producing most of the
EU’s hazardous waste (sludge containing heavy metals - metal
platers)
 concentrating on cures and treatments for waste (“end of pipe”
solutions) rather than preventing its creation.
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 Not investigating of methods for recycling and re-use of waste,
including paper and other office wastes.
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Local Environmental
Threats
Air Pollution, Toxic Substances,
Solid Waste, Policy Options
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Contents
• Local Threats
 Air pollution
 Toxic Substances
 Depletion of Fresh Water Resources
• Aesthetic Pollution
• Threats from Solid Waste
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
What are Local and Regional Environmental
Threats (1)
• Local Threats:
 Local pollution of water, air and soil
 Erosion
 Soil pollution
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Local Threats from Air Pollutants
Respiratory diseases
Indoor air pollution
Smog from local traffic
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Health damages from particulate matter
(PM10, PM2.5) from burning diesel
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Local Threats from Toxic Substances
• Leaching from landfills into groundwater zone:
59/25
http://www.eia.doe.gov
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Depletion of Fresh Water Resources
No replenishment of groundwater sources 
depletion of renewable water
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Aesthetic Pollution
• Visibility: smog
• Deterioration of materials in buildings, statues etc.
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Threats from Solid Waste (1)
• Solid waste issues:
 Materials composition (hazard potential, organic, inorganic, heavy
metals, pesticides etc.)
 Materials amount
 Treatment method (storage, incineration and recycling potential)
?
+
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Threats from Solid Waste (2)
• Materials composition of solid waste determines potential
for adequate treatment and recycling
• Threats of hazardous materials in solid waste:
• Soil degradation
• Leaching from landfills to watersaturated regions
• Toxic emissions from incineration
• Storage of (hazardous) solid waste: Future generations
bear the risks and costs of current solid waste production
= unsustainable!
• Recycling often requires lots of energy and water 63/25
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Policy Options (1)
Air
Water
 Reduction of pollutants at source instead of end-of-pipe (prevent
hazardous substances and reduce amount of waste entering
solid waste incineration)
 Solve the ‘transboundary’ problem of who is responsible for
regional consequences of local emissions;  emission
allowances and trading
 Equal distribution of water resources
 Efficient water use in agriculture and industrial production
processes
 Pollution standards, enforcement of zero discharges, trading
of
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effluent allowances
 Prevent leakage from landfills
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1 – Environmental Threats
1.4 Local Environmental Threats
Policy options for Solid Waste
 Bury in landfills
 Burn in municipal incinerators
 Transport to other countries (= non-solution)
Or…Prevent: create low waste society:
Consume less
Redesign products and manufacturing processes
(Eco-design, eco-efficiency, cleaner production)
Reduce unnecessary packaging
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Adopt trash taxes or ‘pay-as-you-throw’ system
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