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Adaptation From assessment to action UNFCCC compendium on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation methods Sonja Vidic Meteorological and Hydrological Service Croatia 1 In negotiations about climate change, two broad policy responses debated are • mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) and • adaptation (to climate change impacts or risks). Countries are committed in the UNFCCC • to formulate and implement measures to facilitate adaptation (Article 4.1b), and • to cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change (Article 4.1e). 2 First generation approach: adaptation linked to Climate scenarios Future climate and anticipated vulnerability More impact than adaptation oriented Focus on: • stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere • mitigation options 3 Problems: • Too abstract and uncertain • No reality check: hard to explain to stakeholders • Based only on mean changes of temperature and precipitation • No projections or risk assessments of extreme events • Lack of assessment tools/models Unchanged facts: 1. Climate change continues affecting us in the future regardless GHG stabilization 2. Adaptation to climate change still plays a key role 3. Less developed, more vulnerable 4 Second generation approach: adaptation linked to Current climate variability and current vulnerability in addition to the concern with future climate and vulnerability. This empirical approach provides grounding in reality on which to base projections of future impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. Compendium – catalogue of methods provides information on available tools and their intended use. 5 COMPENDIUM OF METHODS 6 • represents no consciously planned interventions • there is potential to reduce negative impact of CC or to moderate vulnerabilities Autonomous adaptation Planned adaptation Adaptive capacity • tends to be reactive • can be quite costly and • can encounter some residual damages • represents consciously planned response • considered at local, national and international scales • particular adaptation measures or practices, can be almost infinite in number Adaptive capacity: potential or ability of a system, region or community to adapt Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents practical means of coping with changes and uncertainties in climate, including variability and extremes 7 What do we need? Scientific understanding • Climate processes • Linkages between climate and society • Tools to model interactions between climate and society – compendium of methods Stakeholders involvement • Deeply involved at the level of understanding • Participation in research and assessment activities •Use of available tools - compendium of methods • Funding sectorial and interdisciplinary studies • Recognition of benefits Supportive government That understands and facilitates all of it !!! 8 What are limitations ? They depend on social and economic welfare !! Countries with economical difficulties still cope with • Lack of vision and strategic planning • Day-to-day policy decision making • No continuity in project funding • No resources for A&V assessments • No stakeholder involvement • Lack of integration at governmental level !!! 9 Is Compendium useful ? Yes !!! Underpins scientific understanding, defelopment of new methods. Provides tools for sectoral analyses. Facilitates stakeholders involvement. Supports independant research activities of interested groups. 10