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Global, European and local aspects of assessments Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis What is an Assessment? An assessment is a critical evaluation of information, for purposes of guiding decisions on a complex, public issue The topic is defined by the stakeholders, who are typically decision-makers. Assessments are policy relevant, but not prescriptive. Assessments are conducted by a credible group of experts with a broad range of disciplinary and geographical experience, in a balanced and transparent way. Assessments reduce complexity but add value by summarisation, synthesis and sorting what is known and widely accepted from what is not known (or not agreed) Assessments relate to the situation at a particular time and in a given geographical domain. Often repeated after some period. Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Assessment Characteristics Involve all stakeholders in the the preparation and peer-review – ownership of the process and results is essential Conducted according to an open, transparent, representative and legitimate process Findings to be policy relevant, not policy prescriptive; use “if …then” approach Technically accurate Incorporate different views Take a local, regional and global perspective Risk assessment, management and communication : Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Assessment vs Review Review Assessment Audience Scientists Decision-makers Done by One or a few Large and varied group Topic Simple and narrow Broad and complex Identifies gaps in Research: curiositydriven Knowledge for implementation: problemdriven (Un)certainty statements Not required Essential Judgement Hidden Required but clearly flagged Coverage Exhaustive, historical Sufficient to deal with main range of uncertainty Synthesis Not required Essential to reduce complexity Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis An assessment is not… A research project o Most data should already be collected, peer-reviewed and in the public domain o Gap filling, research on assessment, new runs of old models and synthesis are permissible A review paper o Focussed on policy o Judgement, clearly labelled as such, is required An advocacy piece o Must be balanced and evidence-based Its not an opportunity to promote your pet topics or own work Its not a vehicle to develop a research agenda Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis GLOBIO: mapping human impacts Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Land Use Trajectories: Understanding Land Use Dynamics Tropical Deforestation Desertification Agricultural Change Vulnerability Land Use and Land Cover Change Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis What drives deforestation? The causes of deforestation (Geist & Lambin, 2001) Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis TheSPM-3 final figure from IPCC’s synthesis report Emissions Narratives Climate change Impacts Concentrations Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis How do we determine “What constitutes dangerous?” Dangerous is a value judgment and not appropriate for analysts to determine IPCC can give information on impacts that may be considered to be dangerous IPCC’s synthesis organized along several “Reasons for concern” about what may be dangerous Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Understanding global environmental change WHAT? WHERE? HOW ? WHY? Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Climate Change • monitoring and prediction of regional climate and climate variability • hydrological research • sources and sinks of greenhouse gases • land use and biodiversity • socio-economic analysis of adaptation and mitigation strategies Global Change • interdependency of global processes in terms of biogeochemical and atmospheric processes • analysis of potential synergies in policies addressing global change • methods development and testing in integrated assessment Sustainability Research • analysis of socio-economic driving forces • exploration of development trajectories with a significantly smaller impact on the environment (Industrial Transformation) • development and testing of research methodologies/concepts in view of systems change and transition in the processes of production and consumption of energy, food and fibre Integration and Integrated Assessment Methods Understanding of complex mechanisms underlying climate change, global change and sustainability, the driving force, impact and response patterns regarding the relation between society and environment, integrated assessment modeling, indicators, scenarios, system transition and science policy. Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis The domains of development Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis International Global Modelling of global Continental Multilateral change is done at the National highest levels Biome State Region Municipal Landscape Village The interactions between Ecosystem society and land Stand happen Family or field at the lowest levels Individual Plant Ecological Organsational & socio-economic Different dimensions of land use Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Different dimensions of land use Organsational & socio-economic State Childrens Gemeente education Village Family Global GHG emissions Continental Climate Biome Region Water availability Landscape Ecological International markets Multilateral Technology National development International All other GHG emissions Soil Ecosystem Stand or field Wheatfarmer in the Great Plains Individual Plant Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis International All other GHG emissions Multilateral Foreign National State Gemeente Local markets Village Family aid Global GHG emissions Continental Climate Biome Region Water availability Landscape Ecological Organsational & socio-economic Different dimensions of land use Soil Ecosystem Stand or field Smallfarmer in rural Africa Individual Plant Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Concluding remarks Impacts & vulnerability assessments: o Use both observed changes and simulated changes to realistically assess the whole possible range of change o Put the impact into context (link to other problems) o Assess how people, sectors and society respond and adapt. Requirements for integrated policy assessments o Integrated assessment is more than a causal chain o Solutions should be linked to local, regional and international policy tools and targets (e.g. CBD ecosystem approach; a significant decline in the biodiversity reduction in 2010; Millennium Goals) Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Thanks for your attention