Download Options for Electricity Generation in 2020

NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability
10th December 2014
UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of
Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv :
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering , Norwich
Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich
1
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km
• Red line outlines extent for reference
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km
a loss of 51% in 33 years
• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum
• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
•
2
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
3
Temperature variations in last 160 years
0.60
0.40
below average
Deviation deg C
above average
0.20
Trend Line
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1
1-014_Warmest_Year.htm
4
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and
Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Some of the Key issues
• What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the
next few years with older stations closing and UK now
dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and
also two thirds of its coal?
• What might the future electricity generation mix look like?
• How does UK energy mix compare with that of other
countries?
• What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for
electricity generation?
• To what extent would variable renewables such as wind
cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?
• What are the cost implications of the options available?
• What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of
electricity?
5
• Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?
Wholesale Cost of Electricity
Wholesale Electricity Prices
12
10
UK no longer
self sufficient
in gas
p/kWh
8
Oil reaches
$130 a barrel
Severe Cold
Spells
Langeled Line
to Norway
6
4
2
0
2001
UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
wholesale prices updated to 16th September 2014
Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale Prices
Wholesale prices are 2.5 times what they were in 2004
6
Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices
Electricity Price Indices (2001 = 100)
600
wholesale
500
retail
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied
much less than wholesale prices. However in recent
months retail prices have risen above long term
wholesale trends.
7
What are causes of price rises in recent years?
• In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household
have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100% *
How much can be attributed to support for Renewables
under the Renewable obligation?
• Support for All Renewables in 2012-13 was £1.99 billion **.
However 313,569,728 MWh was supplied
representing an increase of 0.69 p/kWh in retail price of
electricity
• At typical domestic unit prices of 13 – 14p per kWh this
represents and increase of just 4.9%.
• Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2012-13 was
0.22p per kWh or ~ 1.7%. For offshore the figures are 0.16p
and 1.2% respectively.
• Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh
by end of 2013.
* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
** OFGEM Annual Report
8
CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)
1
0.8
EU
Developing
OECD
Oil Producing
World Average 0.550
UK
0.6
France
0.4
0.2
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
Brazil
France
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Russia
Qatar
Italy
Japan
UAE
UK
Netherlands
Germany
USA
Mexico
Denmark
Saudi Arabia
Libya
China
Australia
India
Poland
0
Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh
* Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010
9
9
Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries
UK
Switzerland
Russia
Coal
France
Norway
Brazil
Oil
Hydro/ Tidal/Wave
Germany
Sweden
Japan
China
2010
Poland
Saudi
Arabia
USA
UK-2013
India
Gas
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Biofuels/Waste
10
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including
fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approximate
Comments
emission factor
per kWh
Coal
Oil
~800-900
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
~600g
Conventional Steam Station
Gas (CCGT)
~400g
Most modern stations may be as
low as 380g
Nuclear
5 – 10g
Depending on reactor type
Overall UK including
transmission
*
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
Gas (Steam)
Renewables
•
~900 – 1000g
~0
~541g*
For wind, PV, hydro
Varies on hour by hour basis
depending on generation mix
Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24%
DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Generation
Type
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Predicted Cost in 2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
8.0p
0 - 70% (at present 25- Available now (but
Gas CCGT
[5 - 11]/kWh 8.5p/kWh
35%)
gas is running out)
Billion Cubic Metres
120
Impact of
temporary
switch to coal
generation
100
80
60
40
20
0
Actual UK production
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
Actual Production
Actual Demand
Import
Gap
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down
to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline.
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Generation
Type
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Predicted Cost in 2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
present 25- Available now (but gas
Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at
35%)
is running out)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
8.5p/kWh
Long construction
5 - 10% (France 75 - times (capital cost for
7.75p
9.25p
nuclear
80%) - (currently 18- Hinkley increased
[5.5 - 10] (Hinkley)/
fission
from £16 billion to
20% and falling)
/kWh
kWh
£24.5 billion
nuclear
not available until 2040 at earliest not until
unavailable
Nuclear
New
Build
assumes
one
new
station is2050
completed
each yearimpact
after 2020.
fusion
for significant
14000
Installed Capacity (MW)
[7.5 – 15p]
Available now: Not
"Clean
Coal currently
~40% but viable without Carbon - unlikely 9.5 – 13.4p/
Projected
Coal"10000 scheduled
to fall
Capture &
kWh
before 2025
Actual
Sequestration
8000
*
*
12000
New Build ?
6000
4000
2000
0
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Generation
Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
2040
13
Conventional Generation of Electricity
Largest loss in
Power Station
1.0 Unit
Overall efficiency ~ 35%
Diagram illustrates situation with conventional generation
using coal, oil, gas or nuclear
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
2011 (*) Gas Dec 2013 (*)
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
8p
Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
9.0–9.9p /
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
kWh
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation +/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient
electricity for 3000 homes – operating for
12 years
On average has provided electricity for
700 – 850 homes depending on year
*
*
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change
Committee May 2011
Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013
Central Projection
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply Predicted Cost in 2020
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Gas 8p
Gas 8.5p
Type
On Shore
Wind
Off Shore
Wind
~8.2p
9.0–9.9p/
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
kWh
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation +/- 0.8p
some technical
12.5p
11.5 – 12.0p/
development needed to
20 - 40%
+/- 2.5p
kWh
reduce costs.
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
16 Ipswich
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
9.0 – 9.9p/
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
kWh
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore
12.5p
development needed to
20 - 40%
11.5 – 12.0p
Wind
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (inc.
mini - micro)
*
*
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
11p for
<2MW
projects
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
17
Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
Not Costed
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
On
Shore Change
~20%
[~15000
3
available
Climate
Report
2011xsuggests
that 1.6 now
TWhfor
(0.4%) in ~8.2p
9.0–9.9p
+/0.8p
Wind
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. But 2.1 GW already installed (Oct. 2014)
some technical
Off Shore
12.5p
development needed to
20 - 40%
11.5 – 12.0p
Wind
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
<5% even
assuming 10
GW of
installation
available, and costs are 25p +/-8
13-15p
12.3p/ kWh
coming down – but low
(2012
load factors
projection)
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
9.0–9.9p/
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3 To provide
available5%
now
offor
UK electricity
+/- size
0.8pof
kWh
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial
exploitation
needs will require
an area the
someand
technical
Norfolk
Suffolk devoted12.5p
solely
Off Shore
11.5 –
development
needed to
20 - 40%
to
biomass
Wind
+/- 2.5p 12.0p/ kWh
reduce costs.
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
<5% even
available, and costs are
25p +/-8
Photovoltaic assuming 10 GW of coming down – but low 13-15p (2012 12.3p/ kWh
projection)
installation
load factors
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
available, but research needed
9 - 13p
??5% but could be
Not Costed
in some areas e.g. advanced
larger with
depending on
gasification. Questions over
significant imports
technology
sustainability
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
9.0–9.9p/
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
kWh
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
Off Shore
Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
Wave/Tidal
Stream
20 - 40%
development needed to
reduce costs.
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
currently < 20
technology limited MW ?? 1000 major development not
2000 MW (~0.1%)
before 2020
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
12.5p
+/- 2.5p
11p for
<2MW
projects
11.5 –
12.0p/ kWh
Not Costed
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
12.3p
9 – 13p
Not Costed
19p Tidal
Not Costed
26.5p Wave
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
9.0–9.9p
+/- 0.8p
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
Off Shore
Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
20 - 40%
development needed to
reduce costs.
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
12.5p
+/- 2.5p
11p for
<2MW
projects
25p +/-8
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
Open
Hydro
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
(13-15p)
??5%
11.5 – 12.0p
Not Costed
12.3p
commissionedNot
offCosted
Questions over sustainability Eday9 –– Sept
13p 2007
Alstom Device seen at
Hatston April 2013
Wave/Tidal
Stream
currently < 20
technology limited MW ?? 1000 major development not
2000 MW (~0.1%)
before 2020
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
19p Tidal
Not Costed
26.5p Wave
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
On
Shore
~20%
x 3yearsavailable now for
The
Royal Oak
was[~15000
sunk 75
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages
9.0–9.9p
+/0.8p
Wind
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
th
ago this evening (14 October) with
have been considered frequently
Off
theShore
loss of 800 lives.
20 - 40%
Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
development needed
to war12.5p
e.g. pre
– 1970s, 11.5
2009
– 12.0p
reduce costs.
+/2.5p
Severn Barrage could provide 5-8%
11p for needs
UK electricity
technically mature,ofbut
<2MW
Not Costed
limited potential
projects Barriers
In Orkney – Churchill
+/-8per annum <<5% even assuming
further research
needed
to 000 25p
Output
~80
GWh
12.3p
10 GW of installation bring down costs
significantly
(13-15p)
Sufficient for 13500 houses in
Not Costed
there
9 –are
13ponly 4000 in
Orkney. Controversy in bringing
currently < 20 MW technology
limited
cables
south.
19p Tidal
Wave/Tidal ?? 1000 - 2000 MW major development
not
Would save 26.5p
40000Wave
tonnesNot
of Costed
CO2
Stream
(~0.1%)
before 2020
BIOMASS
Tidal
Barrages /
Lagoons
??5%
5 - 15%
but
Questions overOrkney
sustainability
technology available but
unlikely for 2020. ??
Swansea Bay Lagoon
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
26p +/-5
Not Costed
22
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
9.0–9.9p
+/- 0.8p
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
Off Shore
Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
20 - 40%
development needed to
reduce costs.
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
12.5p
+/- 2.5p
11p for
<2MW
projects
11.5 – 12.0p
Not Costed
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
12.3p
9 – 13p
Not Costed
currently < 20 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal ?? 1000 - 2000 MW major development not 19p Tidal
Not Costed
Stream
26.5p
Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal
technology available but 26p +/-5
Barrages /
5 - 15%
Not Costed
unlikely
for
2020
Lagoons
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
Geothermal
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
23
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
9.0–9.9p/
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
kWh
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
Off Shore
Wind
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
20 - 40%
development needed to
reduce costs.
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
12.5p
+/- 2.5p
11p for
<2MW
projects
11.5 –
12.0p/ kWh
Not Costed
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
12.3p /kWh
9 – 13p
Not Costed
currently < 20 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal ?? 1000 - 2000 MW major development not 19p Tidal
Not Costed
Stream
26.5p
Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal
technology available but 26p +/-5
Barrages /
5 - 15%
Not Costed
unlikely
for
2020
Lagoons
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
Geothermal
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
24
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar
PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind.
Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as
demonstration projects.
[technically immature ]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within
10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change
Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
25
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• the UK will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from
countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
26
Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030
250
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Woodford
Marcellus
Fayetteville
GWh/ Year
200
150
100
50
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Years of Operation
Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 years
Total output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to
two 3 MW wind turbines
27
bcm
Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
DECC
EIA
Cuadrilla
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
The most optimistic scenario data from above are used
Electricity Scenario assumes
• similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand
• 5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant
• Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWh by 2030
Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report
28
Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030
Assume Highest Projection for Fracked Gas
Future Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates
• Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles
and heat pumps
• Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and
heat pumps.
Renewable Generation
• Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind
• 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030
• Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025
Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation
• Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013
• New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021.
• New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per
annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020s
Gas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between
DEMAND and
COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION
29
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
TWH (billions of units (kWh))
600
Limited electric cars or heat pumps
500
Fracked
Gas
400
Oil
Imported
Gas
UK Gas
300
Existing Coal
200
Oil
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
100
Offshore
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Other
Renewables
New Coal ?
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deploymentExisting
of electric
vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.New Nuclear?
Nuclear
0
1970
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps 30
by 2030.
Predictability of UK Wind Generation
To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the
secure supply of electricity?
4500
48 hr prediction
4000
24 hr prediction Actual
Actual
3500
MW
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1
26th Sep
1
27th Sep
1
28th Sep
1
29th Sep
1
30th Sep
Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and
also actual output. Predictions are now very good
Data abstracted from BMReports Website
31
How Predictable is Wind Energy?
7000
Predictions made for each hour
in 2013 had a correlation of
96.48%
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Projected output (MW)
Predictions made for each hour in
2014 have had a correlation of
97.06% up to 5th October 2014
Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website.
Last occurrence at 08:30 on 6th October 2014
Projections made on Day -1
Actual Output (MW)
Actual Output (MW)
Projections made on Day -1
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
2000
4000
6000
Projected output (MW)
8000
32
Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation?
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
06th
October 2014
To GB
From GB
GB Demand
20 22 24 2
Interconnector Flows
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
Interconnector Flows (MW)
Demand (MW)
GB Electricity Demand and Interconnector Flows
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Time (24 hr Clock)
Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014
•
•
Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an
increase of 19254MW in 3 hours.
Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on
33
this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change).
Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years
100
90
Load Factors for different modes of Generation
CCGT
Onshore Wind
Solar PV
Nuclear
Offshore Wind
Hydro
Coal
Wave/Tidal
Bioenergy
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2010
2011
2012
Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and
Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor
Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5
2013
34
Annual Wind Variations are in phase with Demand
Annual GB Demand Variation and Load Factor Variation
45
45%
TWh
Onshore (load factor)
Solar (load factor)
40%
35
35%
30
30%
25
25%
20
20%
15
15%
10
10%
5
5%
0
0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Load Factor
Demand (TWh)
Offshore (load factor)
40
Dec
Wind Load Factor Variations follow general demand trend.
Solar Load Factor trend is complementary to that of wind
35
Data for 2013 abstracted from DECC, Elexon and BMReports Websites – Oct 1st – 5th 2014
Generation at the Domestic Level
Energy Generation
•
Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic
installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses
Average Daily Output
(kWh)
•
6
5
4
•
3
2
•
1
Output for2apanel
1.25kW
PV sqm
Array) in
Example
( 2.6
Norwich
– generates 826kWh/year
2011
2012
(average
over 7 years).
2013
The
2014 more hot water you use the
more solar heat you get!
Renewable Heat Incentive available
from 2014
0
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Overall Solar Energy Gain
•
Solar
5 PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation
2007
2008
4 required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.52011
Area
sqm2012
depending
on technology and manufacturer
3
•
2
Approximate
annual estimate of generation
kWh per day
•
2009
2010
2013
2014
=1installed capacity * 8760 * 0.1
0
hours in year
load/capacity factor of 10%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
36
Current and Future Generation Costs
14 p
12 p
Effective
Renewable
Costs
ROC
banding
introduced
10 p
8p
6p
4p
2p
0p
2002
wholesale price
coal
Offshore Wind
2004
2006
2008
gas
All Renewables
Solar PV
2010
2012
2014
nuclear
Onshore Wind
Tidal Stream/Wave
2016
2018
2020
Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over year
Effective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value
37
The future is our Responsibility
In the Next 10 Years
• Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as
important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could
become critical.
• New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and
there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at
volatile prices.
• Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24
hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas
generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to
demand.
• Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail
prices.
• The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil
fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of
Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future
Energy
38
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
•
•
•
•
Closure of Nuclear Stations
Station
Type
Wylfa
Magnox
Heysham 1
AGR
Dungeness B
AGR
Heysham 2
AGR
Hartlepool
AGR
Hinkley Point B
AGR
Hunterston B
AGR
Torness
AGR
Sizewell B
PWR
Capacity
Started
490
1971
2 x 580
1983/4
2 x 545
1983/5
2 x 615
1988
2 x 595
1983/4
2 x 610 (430)
1976
2 x 610 (430)
1976/7
2 x 625
1988/9
1188
1995
Closure*
2015
2019
2028
2023
2024
2023
2023
2023
2035
Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%.
Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been
affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until
end of December
pose questions on extended lives indicated above.
* World Nuclear Association – September 2014
39
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
•
Closure of Coal/Oil Stations
Coal
Cockenzie
Didcot A
Ironbridge
Kingsnorth
Tilbury
Oil
Fawley
Grain
Littlebrook D
Capacity
(GW)
1.2
2
1.0
2
1.1
1
1.4
1.1
Scheduled Closure
By end of 2015
or before if 20000
hours running since 1st
Jan 2008 has been
exceeded
Actual Closure
March 2013
March 2013
End 2015
March 2013
October 2013
March 2013
December 2012
March 2015
Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must
close by end of 2015 at latest.
On October 6th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW)
40
may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
Strategies being taken by National Grid
Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR)
Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load
between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the
Triad Period November to February.
Consumers will be paid for such action.
Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand)
And 1140MW for 2015/16
Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load
payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per
day over the Triad Period
Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned
– i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for
providing capacity.
41
Raising Awareness
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
42
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
43
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
The future is our Responsibility
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our
decision making on energy – both on supply and
demand.
We must promote Energy Conservation and develop
a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon,
energy secure and affordable future, not only for
electricity but also for heat and transport.
And Finally
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)
“If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading.”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
44
45
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km
• Red line outlines extent for reference
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km
a loss of 51% in 33 years
• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum
• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
•
46
Raising Awareness
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
47
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
48